Samsung’s 20-year-life EV battery runs 600 miles on 9-minute charge
Samsung’s 20-year-life EV battery runs 600 miles on 9-minute charge
interestingengineering.com
Samsung’s 20-year-life EV battery runs 600 miles on 9-minute charge
308 comments
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This is the real next step, every other battery hasn't made it to production, but if they're sending out working EV batteries to EV manufacturers and have production line running then it's finally real.
And as soon as Korea starts mass producing long range, quick charge solid state batteries, the factories in China are going to start mass-producing them as well.
Regardless of what it means politically, this is fantastic news, I didn't know they were actually producing them beyond prototype stage into commercial production.
Heellll yeah.
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Yeah I was excited by https://www.amazon.com/Yoshino-Solid-State-B4000-SST-Generator/dp/B0CPPKFXP3 and although available a bit niche but it ramping into production where its going to be high volume. Finally a battery tech that has made it to market.
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I bet the Europeans and Americans already work on imposing tariffs.
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On Korean products?
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Won't matter much; Chinese EVs are so inexpensively made, especially with subsidies, while exceeding European and American auto safety standards that tariffs for the last five years haven't stopped them expanding outside of Asia.
In addition, EVs are so much cheaper to produce, run and maintain for auto companies that tariffs aren't going to make much of a difference stemming the continued EV manufacturing explosion.
Capacity and range will just keep going up, any tariffs have so far been and will be footnotes in EV story rather than any sort of relevant market mechanism
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Oh please! I'd love to see Big Oil shrivel and die just like our societies and very planet have under their influence.
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They will just take all their oil billions and buy up battery companies at the last moment.
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They can do that with a lot of them, but not all. You can't really sell an oil platform when nobody is buying oil anymore. The "stranded assets" is a huge motivator for fossil industries to prolong the switch to renewables as long as possible. Problem is the governments being complicit. They could have made clear paths from when on no new fossil investments were allowed to create a proper phase out.
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How are they going to convert their assets in that scenario? The value of oil will just go down from here on out, eventually it'll reach a point where it starts going back up again because it'll be such a hard to acquire commodity for the few people that want it.
Eventually we'll get to a point where the only people who use oil are rich people who can afford to run vintage cars and presumably pay some kind of carbon offset tax.
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I mean they absolutely will when civilization collapses due to climate collapse and accompanying weather events, famine, droughts, and plagues.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
I take solace in knowing that they can build all the luxury bunkers they want, but they will one day come to realize they are their tombs, protecting them from the world and species they damned, including for any of their muh legacy nepo babies huddled underground with them, for a couple million years.
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I'd appreciate if people just like you would stop taking any solace and tolerating this bs. The ONLY reason this shit continues to happen is because too many people do nothing. Then when asked they get defensive and say, "What am I supposed to do?!" followed by "What are you doing?!" Like guys, you're smart enough to recognize the perils of these industries, read journals and papers, and internalize the evidence, and you can't fucking do a quick Google search on activism and even lightly contemplate entering yourself into local politics?
Come now.
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Concrete is effective at sealing shut bunker doors, and air ventilation systems, as is caulk
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muh legacy nepo babies
Are they actually saying that? The kids or the parents?
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Too bad the lithium battery industry is no better. Those places are child labor slave mines and the environmental damage is astronomical..
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You're probably thinking of cobalt or perhaps hard rock lithium mines. Most lithium is just pumped out of the ground as brines, just like oil.
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This is true but coal mining is just as bad and requires orders of magnitude (mineral fuels) more excavation than all of the other minerals combined. If we can stop mining coal by using renewables the total amount of mining will be a fraction of what it currently is. Plus many of the other minerals can be reused where coal just ends up as carbon in the atmosphere.
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You're missing the big picture. Firstly because they're reducing the cobalt requirements in batteries which will massively help. Also long-term lithium and cobalt are metals, they are found all over the place. Oil and coal are products that require life and as far as we know Earth is the only planet in the solar system to have organics like that.
But we can mine asteroids for materials to build batteries. Long before that we'll have automation to mine the materials on Earth does not requiring human labor. Long-Term this is an improvement it isn't a zero-sum gain at all like you're making out
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You really sound desperate to reject any possibility that hard work and human ingenuity can solve problems. I assume it's because you're scared of feeling you have to actually take life seriously and consider the implications of each choice you make.
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Let's hope it's better than most Samsung products
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It comes with their version of a calendar installed and it wont charge unless you grant it permissions to access your gps log, at which point it will crash.
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Seriously, why are they so absolutely shit at software. It boggles the mind.
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Their batteries are usually top notch. If you're hunting around for 18650 cells--which are notoriously bad for fake claims on Amazon and Aliexpress ("80,000mAh!!!!" when the best 18650 cells are closer to 3,500mAh)--a genuine Samsung cell is a safe bet.
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Better in what way?
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I swear I read about how some companies have managed to come up with some break through to charge or increase battery capacity every few months, yet these are never make it to market.
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Cold fusion is right around the corner!
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Cold fusion is right around the corner!
i thought they're already at "triple cold² fusion++" ;-)
yet these are never make it to market.
my personal favorite (but not a battery) were two different fake news about fans without any moving parts, one with electricity, conductors and shapes only, the other using ultrasonic somehow, how cool were these lies !!!
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/silent-microchip-fan-has-no-moving-parts-106236
"RSD5 is the culmination of six years of research by Dan Schlitz and Vishal Singhal of Thorrn Micro Technologies"
"Six years of research", such a cool "product" and now that linked thorrn domain is for sale, how bad!! the world will never profit from their super "cool" invention !!!
"today" other bladeless fans (based on ultrasonic freqs) were anounced: https://linustechtips.com/topic/1471374-not-a-big-fan-new-solid-state-cooler-can-blow-air-with-no-moving-parts/ ("Frore is expecting to start shipping units in Q1 of next year." which was news from 2022) but did you hear about that cool product beeing shipped yet? i would have, i'm somehow sure, but somehow i didn't. maybe the "units" they wanted to ship were just something else *lol That article also says: "Frore Systems hasn't announced any actual computers featuring its Airjet solid-state coolers. But the company is already in partnership with the likes of Intel […]" no actual result, but already partners like intel (intel, how does'nt that already fit !!)
The same nonexisting effect (fan without moving parts), abused (at least) twice. (i'll just ignore those "bladeless fans" here that officially just have hidden "propellers") but military says "twice" is already a scheme...
why should it be different for batteries?
if they produce batteries THAT good, they would never sell them but make them available only for rent, to maximise their(!) ROI (and not yours). so i guess it's yafn - yet another fake news. i might still be wrong however, but i also like to be on the safe side of predictions ;-)
a theory: the richies offsprings startups desperately need other lies than their parents and grandparents who already used up nearly all language-allowed possible lies (as well as nonverbal lies, just watch tv for a while to see it in action) to distract people, companies and govs to 'invest' in them instead of i.e. in the future or in the nation, thus new nonexistant technologies is what the richies offspring found best to be their lies about.
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Cold fusion certainly isn't.
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Yes agreed.
But: Battery capacity, charging and discharging speed, price has dramatically moved in the last 20 years.
So while it’s easy to disregard revolutions, evolution has most definitely occurred. And many of them are fuelled by what gets hailed as a revolution and then, quietly, sneaks into the current production processes and makes it to market.
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This one is definitely real and will be in cars (whether it's Samsung or someone else), probably by 2027.
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I posted about this a week ago. The battery pack will likely be around 150kWh (Nio has a solid state battery car that will be produced that can do 577 miles on a 150kWh battery). The 9 minute charge is from 8-80% (according to the marketing material I dug up) so it is 432 miles of charge in 9 minutes. Considering fast charge costs like $0.50/kWh currently, I'm guessing most people will not be charging up that entire portion unless they are planning on driving for a long fucking time...after they have already been driving for 9-10 hours.
But that charge rate would have to come from a charger that can output much higher than current ones. The highest output you are likely to find is 350kW which would take 18 minutes to charge that 108kWh. So while this battery can charge that fast, you are not likely to be able to find a charger with that high of output for a few years. Still great to be able to get a couple hundred miles of range in 9 minutes. Solid state batteries supposedly have a quicker ramp up period and can take the full output for a higher percentage of the battery.
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There are already some charging stations in Germany offering 400kW. Still 16 minutes though. 800kW is just insane. CCS is currently capped at 500kW, so you would need MCS which is planned for trucks.
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Fucking hell, imagine the requirement of a couple of megawatt substation for fast charging, urban power planners must be shitting themselves.
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If you do the math, the common standard plugs simply can't do the charging rates that would be required here. You'd need a whole new plug design on top of all new chargers.
It's also silly and unnecessary. We should focus on getting more chargers out there, not chasing a fast charge time goal. If you plan your route out a bit, 20-30 minute charge times every 2-4 hours are fine for the vast majority of people.
https://wumpus-cave.net/post/2024/03/2024-03-30-ten-minute-ev-charging-wont-happen/index.html
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Does fast charging reduce the lifespan of a battery like this? The headline is bothersome because my suspicion is it won't last 20 years if you fast charge all of the time and whatnot. I realize that's not a typical case but it's good to understand the trade-offs.
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The chemistry is substantially different, so we'll probably have to wait until scientists run some tests to get a more precise set of parameters that affect degradation. I expect failure modes like dendrites are basically impossible with solid-state, but electrode cracking is still possible. There might even be new and exciting ways they can degrade! Regardless, this is still great news.
Engineering Explained has a good summary: https://youtu.be/w4lvDGtfI9U (Piped link: https://piped.video/watch?v=w4lvDGtfI9U)
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Honestly, we do that. Almost every year we drive for 13-14 hours to visit my parents, which is something like 900 miles. We usually do 300-400 miles then refill gas and grab some fast food. We usually stop twice on this trip, sometimes three times if someone has an emergency. We also do some shorter 600 mile+ trips as well (in-laws and sibling are just over 600 miles away), and frequently drive ~200 miles, so we usually have 1-2 road trips each year.
Current EVs that get something like 200-250 miles per change would require at least four stops, and 30min or so per stop, which would add at least 2 hours to the trip. That turns a one-day drive into a two-day drive, and probably three days if charging stations aren't readily available. For the shorter trips (just over 600 miles), we'd still need to recharge at least twice, which adds more than an hour to the trip.
So I'm absolutely interested in this kind of range. I don't need 600 miles, but 400-500 would be good. Until they're affordable, we're sticking to our ICE family car, though we're planning to exchange our hybrid commuter for an EV.
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That's a long day in the car, too much for me. Any road trip over about 350 miles gets me pretty exhausted and sick of being in the car. So I'd be OK with a 300 mile range and stopping overnight at a hotel with a charger nearby for trips like that.
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That is the case for some people but cases like that are pretty rare. There is no way I could do a drive like that. Current EVs are fine for the vast majority of people but there is the rare family that makes 900 mile trips once our twice a year. For those instances like yours, I'd suggest renting an ICE one or twice a year if you wanted to switch to an EV for your larger vehicle or get a plug in hybrid.
Definitely swap out that commuter car. A used Bolt is pretty darn cheap. I did some math and replacing our Prius C with one would save $1200/year in gas costs. And then there are oil change costs that you save and a few others.
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You know, with charge times like that I wonder if roadside attractions will become more popular again.
Maybe I should start on the next worlds largest rubber band ball now.
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Well most people are not needing to add over 400 miles when they charge up. That might be the case once a year for occasional families but most will be looking to add half that which is not much more time than it takes to fill up with gas. It might cause charging stations to offer more amenities. Or maybe the government could get off its ass and make it okay to put them in at rest stops, there wouldn't be much of a problem at all.
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Your math checks out.
Charging a 600 mi battery in 9 minutes would require a charging station that can output somewhere north of 1.2 MW.
We need major upgrades to the electrical grid as well as doubling our electricity generation capacity for charging stations and vehicles like that to be common place.
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If a product lasts, it will be subscription based
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No, if a product exists, it will be subscription based. That seems to be where we're at these days...
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The idea of ownership is being destroyed
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Only because things are too expensive for plebes to buy outright! Mortgages are basically subscriptions too. Or “layaway” at least.
Thanks to monthly payments for everything, you can have whatever TV you want!
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Honestly, if a product last forever I wouldn't mind it on a subscription model. The company needs to make money in order to, at the minimum, continue supporting the product.
Then comes the costs of support staff, R&D for future product developments, etc etc.
That price should not include massive yearly bonuses for the top execs.
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I've been saying electric cars are never going to catch in until they can keep up with gas on affordability and how far you can go. This is how you compete with gas!
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Now we're cookin' with gas! er...without gas.
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Even if you do find a viable alternative, we need to change how we live and invest heavily in public transit everywhere
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All we need are swap stations and cars that can be battery swapped.
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Charge speed is also extremely important. People keep waxing on about it only takes 15min to charge, but that's is 3-4x as long as pumping gas.
Imagine if we all switched to electrical with those charge times, gas stations would become clogged almost immediately.
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Keep in mind gas stations wouldn't have the same day-to-day demand that they do now. Most people will charge overnight, and the long-haul charge points or tourist destinations would be where things clog up.
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95% of charging would be done at home, since I get tons of energy from the sun. I have a feeling many other people would be doing the same. Highway stations are a different story though.
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Most people on long-term road trips time their stops with meals anyway. If this became a reality, and charging infrastructure got directly built in to parking spaces at rest stops, then they can probably tolerate a 15 minute wait ti charge while they eat lunch.
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We literally can't all switch to electric right now so that's not a problem 😉 but yeah, if I do try to imagine it, I imagine a world where most people charge their cars at home or at work, so the only problem to solve is upping the charging capacity along certain long distance tourist routes. But we can build lots of lovely high speed rail to help decongest those routes 😋
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You’re forgetting the role of societal regulation, laws, culture etc.
Electric cars ARE catching on, at their current technology level.
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That's such a capitalist way of thinking. "The daycare down the street is never going to compete with ABC Baby Slaughter as long as their rates are higher!"
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Amazing, now we just need charger infra to be more ubiquitous
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That's the main thing holding EVs back in general, in my opinion. That, and the price of EVs. Batteries will get better with time, chargers will get faster. But if there aren't enough fast chargers all over the place like petrol stations, then the adoption of EVs will be too slow for prices to drop significantly until ICE vehicles aren't supposed to be produced anymore.
Also, I hope the electronics industry really gets their shit together in terms of recycling and sustainability.
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The weight matters too. EVs are notoriously heavy. You have to haul around the batteries whether they are full or not.
"However, due to their high production costs, these batteries’ initial application will be limited to the “super premium” EV segment."
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The weight matters too. EVs are notoriously heavy.
This is a regular argument against EVs but its a weak argument in the real world application in the USA at least.
- The most popular EV by sales in the USA is the Tesla Model Y with a curb weight of about 4200 lbs.
- The most popular vehicle in the USA is (and has been for quite awhile) the Ford F150 Pickup which a curb weight of 4400lbs.
Yes, many of those F150 trucks are used in commercial or heavy duty applications legitimately, However, many are not. The F150 outsold the Tesla model Y by more than 50%. Why is the argument of curb weight only leveled against EVs, the recent addition to the roads, and not giant pickup trucks and SUVs that regularly weigh much more?
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Personally I like small, lightweight cars because they're fun to drive and somewhat efficient. Obviously the f150 doesn't light my fire in that regard, but the model Y isn't exactly a nimble little thing either. Between weight and annoying tech (screens and driver assist mostly), I'm honestly not interested in modern cars at all
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"initial" could very well be the key word here. Same goes with any new technology, including the relatively outdated Chevy Bolt design (which was pretty expensive at launch and is now a dime a dozen)
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Solid state batteries are more energy dense, meaning that if all you want is 300 miles of range on a charge (perfectly fine with it's faster charging), then you can have less battery for the same range. Now how much lighter I'm not sure, but it's in the right direction!
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If this works as advertised then it'll revolutionize more than just cars. This is huge
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So long as its not 2,3,4 times the price of current cars. Otherwise put them in busses and trains. Cost is strangly missing, I'm guessing because it is prohibitive.
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Exactly. I'm interested if this is in the $30-40k range. It's probably not.
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965 km ... so aprox 1000km.
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So about 1 megameter.
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Wow, 1 megameter for a vehicle weighing 2 megagrams. That's some serious efficiency
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There's a good chance you are mistaken. It was not specified which type of mile they are referencing.
The only sensible mile to use would be the Scandinavian mile (10.000m). = 6000km range.
Another possibility is the nautical mile (1852m). = 1.111,2km range.
And there are plenty of other "miles" to choose from.
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Mm!
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Let me know when I can buy it.
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Yeah. I've seen too many battery technologies die in a lab. I need to see it to believe it.
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These aren't in a lab. They're being manufactured right now.
There's a toxic positivity in battery tech news. So many things only end up being practical in a lab, but the news headlines sensationalizes every single one. Its led people to believe that no advancements are coming. But the truth is that batteries improve 5-8% in kwh/kg per year, and that compounds over time to some real gains.
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I mean that particular version of it or any solid state tech because https://www.amazon.com/Yoshino-Solid-State-B4000-SST-Generator/dp/B0CPPKFXP3
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Yeah I often drive over 1000 miles in a day, sometimes as much as 1600+ so this is the only way I'd consider electric. Although it sounds like at a high speed supercharger it would be more expensive than regular gasoline. At least there's progress.
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"I came to the technology community and was surprised when they started talking about things that aren't in production."
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In the meantime we can get a portable solid state power station https://yoshinopower.com/
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That’s a pretty sexy looking battery
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Can't we get Nokia to make an EV battery instead?
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Now we're getting there!
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now tell me why it isn't sustainable
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Gas-holes will tell you that the rare metals leak poison into dirt.
As if gasoline isnt already doing that.
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Because carrying a 2-ton metal box around you for every single trip you want to do is the least efficient possible way of doing so. Walk places, ride bikes, take trains, minimize car trips and promote carsharing for the occasional trips where cars are actually necessary.
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I get the cost, but it should be an option to upgrade any current EV to this new style battery.
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It's not needed in today's EVs. Things should be upgradable yes, but it's not necessary to replace current existing lithium batteries with this and doing so would probably do more harm than good. The ones we have already outlast the vehicle's lifespan, and go further than a tank of gas.
We don't even know how to recycle these new types, at least we've made some headway with the current gen packs.
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There's some EVs that are integrating the battery into the frame in order to save weight. And it does save weight, but there's no way to replace the battery.
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That's a super awful idea, so battery EOL = car EOL.
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How viable would something like this be for powering a home? Solar panels+this?
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These are gonna be hella expensive for a while. If space is not a concern there's much cheaper batteries out there. You don't really need fast charging capabilities either.
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In a home, power density doesn't really matter. If a battery is large and heavy, you still only transport it twice. Once new, once when you replace it.
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Exactly. I have a lot of space in my garage, not as much in my car.
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Not very. There's a different sodium based battery being designed for home storage. Not nearly as energy dense, but will last a very long time, can be left outside the house, and uses cheap components (no lithium or other rare metals).
That's the battery you'll want.
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How much is that in loading cable diameter?
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Hell yeah. Let's keep going, boys!
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Every car show, they put out 'concept cars' that will never see the light of day.
'New batteries' are giving off the same vibe.
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First and foremost, this is the technology community. If you wanted to see mature tech that is in production, you're in the wrong place.
Second, battery tech has had steady improvement for decades. The cell phone I had 30 years ago had a battery pack that was about as big as my current cell phone with a capacity of 500 mAh. My current cell phone has a battery tucked away somewhere inside it that has a capacity of 4000 mAh. The price per mAh has also gone down about 99% over that time span. There have also been three major "new battery" types over those 3 decades. The changes have been happening whether on not you bothered to notice it.
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All I see in the thumbnail is delicious, forbidden makizushi
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Am I the only one who thinks this is complete overkill? 49/52 weeks a year, I never use more than 15% of my battery on any given day. I don't need 600 miles of range, heck, 400 with a nine minute charge would be incredible. Basically drive 4-5 hours then stop for a bathroom break or bite to eat then keep going.
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Am I the only one who thinks this is complete overkill?
You might be the only one that thinks this is overkill.
49/52 weeks a year, I never use more than 15% of my battery on any given day. I don’t need 600 miles of range
Then this doesn't sound like you fit the use case, which is fine of course, but there are many that do.
- Delivery drivers that may have to go to far places without consistent EV charging
- Winter battery penalty. That 600 miles may be 400ish in extreme cold which many people on the planet live in for at least part of the year.
- Heavy loads vehicles. The 600 mile number is used for the basis of comparison to today's passenger sedan EVs. When putting these in heavy trucks, that 600 mile number may be cut down to 300 or even 200 miles, which opened up new avenues for EV heavy goods deliveries.
In short. Its not just about you.
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600 miles of range is amazing, plus you have to realize that it doesn't always keep that 600 mile range. Also most people don't charge their battery to a 100%, for longevity they only charge up to 80% for the health of the battery
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Then use the same technology to make a 300 mile battery that's half the size and weight.
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Shit, if they run windows on whatever car uses these it could be a real adventure...will it crash when you lose wifi, or just explode randomly? ANYONES GUESS!
The Ford Fukit, new EV for $1000, just sign these waivers and sign up for this power steering subscription. The braking fee will be automatically applied per month based on use. GOOD LUCK!
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What a piece of shit title.
308 comments
Every day it feels like we're getting closer to battery revolution. It really makes you wonder how different the world will be once we have these incredible batteries actually working at consumer level.
Battery tech has still come a long way since say 10 years ago, even though the "next gen" stuff hasn't made it to scaled production. Looks like this is the beginning of scaled production, though.
Battery tech is constantly having huge breakthroughs. They are just come in small steps.
I mean a smart phone is literally a battery powered computer. It's absolutely astounding compared to what we had 10/20 years ago.
The difference is this is actually shipping to manufacturers.
There may not be a revolutionary discovery, but we are nearing a tipping point where battery makes more sense for most disconnected power storage than anything else.
The cell phone I had 30 years ago had a battery pack that was about as big as my current cell phone and was 500 mAh. My current cell phone has a little battery tucked away in it that stores 4000 mAh, recharges about as fast, and can be recharged more before it loses a significant amount of its capacity. It also costs about 1% per mAh of the price of that battery from 30 years ago.
Just because you haven't bothered to investigate advances in battery technology doesn't mean significant advances haven't occurred.
feels a bit like fusion power
True, as far as big leaps go there hasn't mean anything since the introduction of lithium based batteries to the market.
Until now. This is it and they have production working. Safer than lithium. Longer lasting, quicker charging, should perform fine in extreme cold, more energy dense, and solid state.
The next big thing is finally here.
They’re coming off a pilot production line and have shipped to vehicle manufacturers to see if they want to incorporate these into upcoming models.
Problem will be the price for the first run of this tech. They’re targeting “ultra premium” vehicles until they can scale and optimize manufacturing.
The market will segment away from the current tech anyway. CATL Sodium-ion with comparatively low densities but also extremely low prices per kWh will likely win the low-end market and the market for stationary solutions. This is just due to the much lower resource costs. The high-end will be up for things like this battery by Samsung (or other comparable pilot products). The current technology will likely be in a weird middle spot.
There won't be many charging stations able to output that kind of wattage tho
Can you imagine not having the constant traffic noise played into your ears like tinnitus, being able to maybe actually breathe the oxygen nature provides. That’s probably gonna be what it will be like. But still, ev are just a stop gap, more privately owned cars isn’t the solution in my humble opinion, it is a start towards it.
Totally with you, but tire dust is one of the major pollution particles from cars, maybe even the worst AFAIK. That, sadly will not go away but it is still leagues more desireable to have everything on electric than fossil fuel. Can't have perfect stop good enough.
The tire noise EVs make is about the same as an ICE car at about 50 kph (30 mph) so it doesn't make much difference on busy roads. It does make a huge difference in slow traffic.
The traffic noise will stay the same, from tires, honking and some fake engine noise they'll mandate for pedestrian safety.
Do yourself a favor and spend some time in an area without cars. It's amazing what it does to your mental health.
About noise, above 30km/h electric cars are as noisy as gas powered one.
It's better but not the panacea either.
Building massive production capacity to replace all the cars just locks us in to having cars though
If big oil doesn't buy up the patent and squirrel it away.
I waited 4 years for battery technology to get better before bring an EV last year. The "battery revolution", with all the news being generated weekly for years, is still not here. I don't give a fuck about theoretical battery range - give me the actual battery in a car, THEN it's newsworthy. Now it's all just theoretical, which we consumers can do fuck all about.
And that's the thing. As much as we've gotten used to it over the past hundred years, progress is absolutely not automatic.
If people don't buy the current stuff, it reduces the chance of advancement for that tech. Most things will only get better if people are buying the current versions.
We've had solar power tech for 50 years. Solar initiatives under Carter were actually pretty good. You know who killed it, or I expect we'd have solar on most roofs today.
I recently visited Switzerland, and the amount of rooftop solar there was insane.
(Solar is of course closely linked to battery tech.)
Well, Toyota has promised 2026 for their battery tech and hasn't changed that guidance, so I think there's a decent chance they'll stick to that timeline. I don't know if Samsung is their supplier or if they're competing on the tech, but if it's the latter, I expect we'll see something in the next 2-3 years.
One important thing to remember is the that battery capacity is unlikely to improve anymore, we should mostly improve charging, lifespan, safety, etc.
I doubt that we will ever see batteries that have much more capacity per weight than what we have now.
That's completely wrong. Lab research continues and we're not close to the theoretical limits of energy density yet.