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porous_grey_matter @ porous_grey_matter @lemmy.ml
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2 yr. ago

  • Machine Learning has revolutionized protein folding and plenty of other sciences.

    I actually work in the field of protein crystallography. Contrary to newspaper reporting by people who don't understand the field and just repeat what the people who developed the tool say about it, it has made just a small improvement to analysing experimental data which we could have easily made using traditional algorithmic approaches with a similar amount of resources spent. And this is one of its biggest legitimate impacts - it absolutely hasn't "revolutionised plenty of other sciences", or you'd be able to list more things than just alphafold.

    It doesn't improve programmer productivity, it increases the lines of code created, which is a really bad metric for productivity. There is good evidence that its use is already leading to increased code churn, that means someone is having to go back and revisit the additional new errors introduced by AI tools, which is obviously less productive.

  • Scientists do actually make attempts to investigate the contribution of the trends to specific events, it's called extreme event attribution, but it is a very young field and the error bars on everything are still huge. That said,

    The American Meteorological Society stated in 2016 that "the science has now advanced to the point that we can detect the effects of climate change on some events with high confidence". [12]

    But the quote from the article was strictly correct in saying "it's hard".

  • No, you're missing the point. We have conclusively "linked changes in climate to climate change" as your comment eloquently put it. That's not really up for debate. But weather systems are extremely complex and extreme events have always occurred. So you can't say that this one specific heatwave is caused only because of this trend.

    When it comes to the urgency of doing something about it, that doesn't matter. It's absolutely sufficient to say "this type of event will occur increasingly often" to establish that it is an existential crisis. You don't have to be able to prove anything at all about this one very hot week in order to say that it is probably the single most important issue for us to tackle (along with the politics that prevent us from doing that).

    But we don't have the science and statistics to generally link individual events to a trend in isolation, and we shouldn't misrepresent the science that way.

  • No, individual extreme events are not "changes in climate". It's easy to say that the rise in heatwaves is caused by climate change but it's much harder to prove that this specific individual heatwave would never have happened were it not for climate change.

  • Are y'all ok over there?

    No, not really, with humidity and no aircon anything over the high 90s starts to get pretty unpleasant, especially when it goes on for days and doesn't cool down properly at night, so you can't cool your house down.

  • Because right wingers are smart and they know you've got to nip any kind of positive change in the bud, no matter how minor. The threat isn't that he might open some grocery stores, the threat is that people might see that a government could be capable of doing something positive and get hope.