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  • The US has managed to maintain disproportionate purchasing power for its size post WW2 due to trust and reliability. Purchasing power will inevitably erode as that trust diminishes and countries divest in the US.

    Doesn't mean countries will stop selling to American consumers overnight but it will happen over the next 5 to 10 years. No one wants to do business with an unreliable partner.

    It would also be naive to assume Trump does not have a successor and that a significant number of the American populace don't end up supporting him.

    America has poisoned itself with its disinformation engines in the pursuit of never ending growth. Unless there is a major change in the status quo, this isn't going to change anytime soon.

  • Literally everytime a Democrat is elected.

    The deficit increased under Reagan, Bushx2 and Trump.

    Its a core tenet of their playbook to drive up the deficit via tax cuts (especially for rich) and increased military spending and then scream about the deficits when Democrats are in power such that the focus shifts from improving public services (via increased government spending) to balancing the budget.

    They did this to Clinton, Obama and Biden.

    It's been a perpetual cycle since Reagan introduced supply side / trickle down economics as a political platform. Prior to that billionaires were actually taxed fairly and had to give back to society in order to maintain a positive perception within their community.

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  • Trump wants to devalue US currency. He sees US dollar supremacy as why the US is not competitive in the export market and part of the reason why manufacturing has left the country.

    Most countries take the US dollars they make on exports and stockpile them in US treasuries which keeps the dollars value high relative to other currencies.

    Essentially he sees the high value of the US dollar and trade deficit as bubbles that will eventually burst and collapse the US economy. Which is an issue he thinks he can fix/prevent with tariffs.

  • The interest rate isn't fixed, the bond yield (in dollars) is fixed.

    Its presented as a percentage interest rate which can be variable.

    For example let's say you have a $1000 bond that pays a $50 dollar yield at maturity. The rate would be 5% (50/1000).

    If the market is flooded with bonds, their value would decrease due to increased supply. Now that bond may only be worth $900 but still pays a fixed yield of $50. The interest you get paid in this scenario is now 900/50 = 5.5%

    This is great if you are a lender. When you buy bonds you are essentially lending money the government and now your yield will be higher.

    But many ordinary people are more often in the position of borrower. The interest rate for mortgages, car loans etc. are based off of bond rates. So if that rates goes up, many major purchases become more expensive over time. Small businesses are also heavily impacted by increased borrowing costs.

    Generally, higher bond rates represent decreased confidence in a government entity's fiscal responsibility. When US federal bonds are sold off collectively, the rate goes up, signalling that investors have lost faith in the US government reliably paying back its debts.

  • Bonds offer fixed interest.

    Let's say a $50 bond offers $5 dollar yield at maturity (10%).

    If those that currently own bonds sell en masse, the bond becomes less valuable (let's say $40) but the yield is still $5.

    Now the interest rate is 5/40 = 12.5%.

    The 30 year treasury bond interest rate is closely tied to mortgage rates.

    A higher bond interest rate makes it more expensive for businesses to borrow money.

    If other countries sell off US bonds (which are purchased in US dollars), they flood the market with US dollars which ultimately diminishes the dollars value.

    Trump and his ilk like to act like the US subsidizes many of its allies when that is very clearly an oversimplification. Many of the US's allies own US debt (in the form of bonds) because the US is an extremely reliable borrower. If those countries decided the US is not reliable enough to lend money to anymore, it would be extremely problematic for the American economy.

    Tl; Dr: Canada, Japan and the EU could twist American home buyers and businesses by the balls by selling off bonds and, if they took it far enough, even devalue the US dollar. America spends a shit ton of borrowed money from its allies and even China.

  • Americans don't just buy Chinese products from Shein and Temu. They buy those products from Walmart, Target, Amazon and essentially every major US retailer.

    The US is speedrunning ending their empire on the current trajectory. The world needs to call their bluff to put them in their place.