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  • "precision bombing" You toss 2,000 pounds of explosive onto an area. That has a lethal radius of about 380m, or a lethal area of 0.45km². Rafah has 1.5 million people sheltered in an area of 64km² So 23,400 people / km²

    So each of that bomb puts on average 10,500 people at risk of death or serious injury.

    This is not to excuse sending other weapons. Anyone who still sends weapons or any form of military equipment or money to Israel now is willfully complicit in war crimes, massacres and genocide.

  • Yes they are. They rather want Trump to win, than to end a genocide. And people are gaslighting themselves happily to suck up to the Dems instead of saying: "We will vote for you, but only, when you end this genocide and bring justice and peace to the people."

    And the Reps are having a blast over it, because they know that the DNCs are their buddies in exploiting the normal Americans and murdering people outside the US.

  • If your company doesn't pay up or there is a failure with the processing, you would still have all your mails locally instead of your cloud provider deleting them all plus all backups.

    Clearly that would be terrible.

  • Yeah, but putting all of them together, assuming each one to be relevant at the same time, that means you already have thousands of disposable income every month.

    And taking them individually doesn't get much better. How many people are gambling? How many people spend that much money on Skincare? How many people who struggle buying a home, buy new cars too often?

  • My comment from the other article that is currently around:

    We are talking bodys that are mutilated, often beyond recognition. So you find a male body in the age range of 14-20. Now do you count it as a child or as an adult? If you know it is Abdul Raheeem 17 years old, you can make that assessment. But otherwise you can only make a best guess. Problem is, if you only find half a body and it is decayed mostly. The most reliable way to distinguish male and female skeletons is the pelvis. For the other bones you have indications but they aren’t as definite. So if you find an upper body without the pelvis you again have to guess. And digging up mass graves or collecting body parts after a bombing is not exactly the environment for a in depths medical analysis.

    This is the problem why we have incomplete data. And this is why there is 10.000 bodys that are still unidentified. Note this is not the number of bodies presumed under the rubble. That is another 10.000. So we have roughly the following split:

    25.000 Bodies identified (We know the name, age and gender of the killed person)

    10.000 Bodies unidentified (We have to guess for age and gender)

    10.000 Bodies presumed under the rubble, but no means to recover, identify and properly burry them yet. (We have to guess based on other statistics how the gender and age is distributed)

    So that put us at 35.000 confirmed dead and another 10.000 presumed dead.

  • In the article you link it states:

    Gaza's health ministry says 70% of those killed in the territory are women and children. Its most recent breakdown of casualties recorded in hospitals shows women and children make up 58% of those deaths. Al-Qudra could not explain the discrepancy. Recently, Al Jazeera obtained and published a list of thousands of names of Palestinian children in Gaza killed in the war.

    Where do you get 86% from?

    We are talking bodys that are mutilated, often beyond recognition. So you find a male body in the age range of 14-20. Now do you count it as a child or as an adult? If you know it is Abdul Raheeem 17 years old, you can make that assessment. But otherwise you can only make a best guess. Problem is, if you only find half a body and it is decayed mostly. The most reliable way to distinguish male and female skeletons is the pelvis. For the other bones you have indications but they aren't as definite. So if you find an upper body without the pelvis you again have to guess. And digging up mass graves or collecting body parts after a bombing is not exactly the environment for a in depths medical analysis

  • I mean it could, if they wanted to. But having Ukraine and Russia fight a long war of attrition is in the US strategic interest. The more resources Russia wastes in Ukraine the less of a threat it is. The more Ukraine is destroyed, the more the rebuilding can be used to scoop up investment opportunities at a huge discount.

    However this gamble ultimately requires a stalemate and Russian withdrawal or a demarcation without much Russian gains. As we saw with the Reps being undermined by Russia, this careful balance can be shifted in Russias favor anytime by delaying aid.

    The same problem exists in the EU where Russia is successfully propping up its agents, however the EU has a decisive strategic interest in Russia not to win and shouldn't risk it.

  • This completely ignores how markets work. First of all real markets are not efficient. Then there is the psychological aspect. We see over-/undervaluation all the time. Then there is the fact that markets reflect back into policy. Many people divesting form arms companies complicit in the genocide creates a political incentive to limit those businesses abilities and hold them accountable. Then there is the effect that as more institutions publicly divest, it increases the motivation for others do divest. Now this can also create a panic where everyone tries to sell of the stocks asap to not lose too much of the value. If the stocks tank the credit rating goes down, business is directly impacted and goes down, so the "purely rational" expected value goes down, creating an incentive to divest...

    Oh and also companies with lower stock values are at a higher risk of hostile takeovers, employees start looking for different employment opportunities...

  • The stock value is a relevant metric to assess the credit worthiness of a company. Large profitable companies run a lot of their business on loans. In fact in order to achieve high profit margins it is encouraged as the return on investment is a margin of equity.

    If you invest 100 dollar and you do business giving you back 110 dollar, you have a 10% margin.

    If you invest 200 dollar, of which 100 are your equity and 100 are borrowed and you get back 220 dollars and pay 5% interest on the borrowed money, you have 15 dollars on your 100 dollar equity. Now your margin is 15%.

    So many companies run a significant portion of their business on borrowed money. You hurt their ability to borrow, you hurt their business directly. And this can create a downward spiral. Loans get more expensive to margin gets smaller so more people divest so loans get more expensive...

  • I agree. It wasn't meant to be against regulations. Problem is in my city we have plenty of regulations to avoid repurposing flats for tourist rentals without a permit, we have regulations against systematically letting flats empty to be able to sell the house or flat at a premium etc. But we only have like three dozen government employees, who are supposed to oversee a city with more than 1.5 million flats and individual homes. So even if every one of them manages to check on 2 flats every day, they manage like 15.000 flats a year, which is already a rather optimistic estimate.

    It is crucial to not only demand regulation, but also that enough resources are assigned to enforce them.

  • The disparity between men and women in the identifying efforts is quite simple.

    When a men is killed, chance is he was out trying to secure food for his family, carrying wounded to hospitals or trying to rescue people from under the rubble. The family then often was in a different place and survived.

    When a women and children are killed they were probably at home/in a refugee camp/ on the run and the entire core family is killed and there is no one to refer to for identification anymore.

  • Important. This is not the number of probable deaths. The number of probable deaths lies as over 45.000 as it includes people under the rubble, very very very likely dead.

    The 35.000 includes all bodies found.

    The now "revised" number includes all bodies for which the person is identified, so we know it is "Mohamed Abu-Qadr, 6 years old" and not just "unknown child, between 5 and 7 years old"

  • To but it more bluntly: If you find 10 little arms in a mass grave you can safely assume that they belong to at least 5 different children.

    But if only three of these arms can be identified to a child by a wrist-band or some remaining clothes that is the revised number we are talking about.

  • I would like to focus on a different consideration. When you do what is in your small power, it is empowering. And if you feel empowered, you are more inclined to expect and demand action from political and economical actors, as well as it can protect you against emotional campaigns like the shaming, or pushing for people feeling desolate and giving up on change.

  • Yeah no shit. You cannot safely move 1.2 million people back into an area bombed, burned and utterly destroyed without any sanitation, any water, any medical infrastructure...

    The whole "needs a credible plan" is already an excuse to be able to move the goalposts in the same way that the talk about a "large scale" invasion is to move the goalposts.