sweng @ sweng @programming.dev

Posts

1

Comments

206

Joined

2 yr. ago

I asked about Russia, not Ukraine.

Can Russia end the war immediately, or does Russia need the permission of the west to do so?

Why would they not be able to get one? Are you suggesting Ukrainians are unable to govern themselves or hold free elections? Where is the proof of that?

Are you suggesting that Ukraine can not ever hold free elections after a coup, but Donbas can while under armed invasion of a foreign country?

You are contradicting yourself. Can russia stop the war immediately, or do they need the permission of the west to do so? Both can't be true simultaneously

Separated without a legitimate election, unlike the rest of Ukraine, yes. So there were several free elections in most of Ukraine since the revolution, and no free elections in Donbas.

Again, Putin is the only one who can guatanteed end this. You ignore that.

The west abandoning Ukraine in no way guarantees that Russia stops killing Ukrainians, or Ukrainians stop killing Russians.

Is it likely that Ukraine capitulates without Western support? Yes. Is it likely to happen the next day? No. Id it guaranteed to happen at all? No.

Is it likely that Russia stops killing Ukrainians? Yes. Is it likely to stop the next day? No.

The only person who can end this within a day, Putin, chooses not to, and instead chooses the deaths of millions.

You keep mentioning how the west could end this, but are completely silent about the fact that so could Putin, and with much less bloodshed.

Completely missing the several elections after said overthrowing.

The people spoke, and _confirmed_that indeed they did not like the government they overthrew.

If the west stopped supporting Ukraine, Ukraine would continue to fight for some time still. And after a capitulation there would likely ne purges killing still more Ukrainians.

So no, Ukraine could not end the killings tomorrow. Putin could. He chooses not to. He chooses the death of millions of Russians and Ukrainians. Because he truly does not care.

Takes two to tango, but only one to rape.

Of course it does not change reality. Why would you even think that?

Do you often have the feeling that writing changes reality?

Putin chooses the death of millions of Russians and Ukrainians regardless of what you or I write.

What does the fact that Russia is winning have to do with anything? If anything, it would mean it's even easier to end the war by withdrawing as they would not need to be worried about a counterinvasion?

Putin could end the war tomorrow. He chooses not to. Maybe he chooses not to, because he thinks he is winning? It does not matter. What matters is that he chooses not to end it, killing millions.

Well, Russia has also rejected nany proposals, so that seems rather even.

I was not aware that Ukraine us preventing Russia from retreating out of Ukraine. Do you have a source for that? My understanding was hat Putin was allowed to pull back his troops, ending the war, without asking for permission from Ukraine? Or is it China he needs permission from? I'm confused. Who exactly is bossing Putin around saying he can't withdraw?

The war is continuing because Putin is continuing it. He could stop it tomorrow. He does not. Because he does not care how many million Russians or Ukrainians die. He simply does not care.

Anything else is just victim blaming and treating Ukrainians like little children who could not possibly have an opinion of their own.

Now that I think of it, is it maybe some kind of projection? Russians can't go to the toilet without first being told by the glorious leader what he thinks about it, so clearly Ukrainians must be the same?

I guess we have to disagree then. To me making an offer you know does not stand a chance is not basic diplomacy. Threatening to murder the person you "want" to negotiate with is also not basic diplomacy IMHO.

But I guess I could try the Russian school of diplomacy the next time I want to ask for a raise. I'm not sure taking a shit in front of my boss' office and loudly proclaim I will beat him until I get a 1000% raise will be a great way to start the negotiations, but you've actually convinced me to give it a try.

I'm struggling with Putin willing to kill millions instead of using basic diplomacy.

I think everyone wants the war to stop, but only one side can actually do that.

Right, and Putin knows that the west and Ukraine will not negotiate since they don't trust him. So what is the point of making an offer you don't expect to be accepted? If you don't expect to negotiate, you are not being serious about it.

You can not claim to be for a diplomstic solution and at the same time do nothing to actually reach it.

Putin would rather kill millions of Ukrainians and Russians than make himself trustworthy (which could actually lead to a diplomatic solution)? What kind of person does that?

Even if it were true, it has nothing to do with the fact that Putin has said he is open for negotiations, while doing absolutely nothing to actually get people to negotiate with him.

If he wants to negotiate, he needs to work on building trust, so he has someone to negotiate with. If he does not want to negotiate, then he should just say so. What Putin does now just makes people not take him seriously. You could practically hear the global eye-rolling when he made his latest proposal.

From one of the sources cited in the article: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/ukraine-public-opinion-russia-war?lang=en

Many Ukrainians may be open to negotiations in theory, but they overwhelmingly did not trust Russia to negotiate in good faith. Most Ukrainians (86 percent) believed that there is a medium or high risk that Russia will attack again even if there is a signed peace treaty, and even more (91 percent) believed that Russia’s motive to enter negotiations is to take time to prepare for a new attack. Even among those who supported negotiations with Russia, only 21 percent believed that signing a peace treaty would help Ukraine deter future Russian aggression.

Putin's problem is he burned all the trust the world had in him when he attacked Ukraine after saying he would not. If he is truly serious about peace, he first needs to rebuild that trust.

The article seems to use https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/ukraine-public-opinion-russia-war?lang=en as one of the sources suggesting support for negotiations is rising. But it seems to come to a completely different conclusion, e.g.

But further analysis and more targeted questioning shows that support for negotiations is largely theoretical. The share of Ukrainians who preferred seeking a compromise to end the war through negotiations fell from 43 percent in the yes or no question to 26 percent when respondents were asked to choose between negotiating with Russia and continuing to fight. Most Ukrainians who expressed openness to negotiate appeared to envision a scenario in which Kyiv was in a favorable enough position to demand the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, the prosecution of Russian officials for war crimes, reparations, and other conditions that are nonstarters for the Kremlin.

Interesting how the article seems to completely ignore this.

How is that the implication when there are lots of other explanations, one even given above?

If the target costs more than the missile (including the opportunity cost), and/or the target is a high priority for repairs, it makes sense to target it. It doesn't need to be more complicated than that.