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2 yr. ago

  • Cobalt isn't even in most EV batteries anymore, and LMFP is replacing NMC next year.

    Sodium ion will then replace LFP the year after.

    It's also real weird how people only ever care about french colonial exploitation of africa when it comes to materials they pretend are in renewables and not when they're flooding villages drinking water with uranium tailings.

  • "Baseload generator" isn't a useful concept. And grid reliability (which is a useful concept) is thought about. It just doesn't fit into a soundbite like winddon'tblowsundon'tshine.

    Here's an example of a full plan https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp

    Or a simpler analysis on the same grid: https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-renewable-grid-for-australia-is-feasible-and-affordable-with-just-a-few-hours-of-storage/

    For reference, 5kWh home batteries currently retail for about $1300 so this would add <10% to the capital cost compared to recent nuclear projects. Pumped hydro is about half the price per capacity, but a bit more per watt. The former is dropping at 10-30% per year, so by the time a nuclear plant is finished, storage cost would be negligible.

    Here's a broad overview of a slightly simplified model https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z demonstrating similar is possible everywhere.

    Even in the counterfactual case where the ~5% of "other" generation is only possible with fossil fuel, focusing on it is incredibly myopic because the resources spent on that 1% of global emissions could instead be used for the other 70% which isn't from electricity and has different reliability constraints.

  • NO2, methane from byproduct/digestion, soil carbon release from land overuse. Downstream methane release due to nitrate pollution.

    The overwhelming majority of cropland is for "biofuel", industrial chemicals and animal feed.

    Industrial scale regenerative agriculture has lower yields in the short term, but doesn't emit NO2 and leave behind a dust bowl (requiring clearing a new forest).

    Eating crops directly rather than feeding cows is far more effective than changing fertilizer source. Eating organic crops uses a small fraction of the crop land that eating beef fed on intensively grown corn does.

    Biointensive methods have many times the yield as industrial agriculture but are very labour intensive -- automating them would save a lot more emissions.

    Precision fermentation uses a tiny fraction of the land per unit of protein/nutrients.

  • Droughts could even affect pumped hydro: a much-touted solution to availability problems with wind and solar. For crying out loud, present both sides of the argument fairly! /end rant

    Pumped hydro doesn't consume nearly as much water as a thermal generator. Especially if you cover the reservoirs. It also gives you an emergency backup.

    Would you prefer:

    Option A where you immediately have no power when the river gets low,

    Or option B where you still have power after the river gets low, but can also choose to give up the ability to have some of your power at the end of a week long cloudy period in exchange for water?

  • 1kg of lithium produces about 10kWh of storage for 15-20 years. 3-12 hours of storage is plenty for a >95% VRE grid.

    1kg of uranium produces about 750W for 6 years.

    There are about 20 million tonnes of conventional lithium economically accessible reserves (and it has only been of economic interest for a short time).

    There are about 10 million tonnes of reasonably assured accessible uranium (not reserves, stuff assumed to exist). It has had many boom/bust cycles of prospecting.

    Lithium batteries are not even being proposed as the main grid storage method.

  • Here's an example of what can be done with 5 hours of storage. 5 hours is a 25% participation rate of V2G where the participants offer a third of their battery capacity.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-renewable-grid-for-australia-is-feasible-and-affordable-with-just-a-few-hours-of-storage/

    If going with the (false) assumption that nuclear can hit 100% grid penetration, it would take decades to offset the carbon released by causing a single year of delay.

    The lowest carbon "let's pretend storage is impossible and go with 100% nuclear" would still start with exclusively funding VRE.

  • Also renewables.

    Also incorrect. We need whatever reduces total cumulative emissions the most.

    A solar panel today does a lot more than a nuclear reactor in 2045. And installing 5W of solar (which will average 1W) today only costs you the opportunity to build 0.15W of nuclear (which will average 0.12W).

  • This is a misrepresentation of what he said, which was a discussion on net metering and high feed in tarriffs.

    The people with surplus can pay for the grid infrastructure with energy they produce consumed elsewhere at whatever its value is. When they have no surplus they can pay with money.

  • Plug in car. Press the "I would like to only pay $100/yr to fuel this please" button.

    Later when you leave for work press the "I would like the house to be cool when I get home and also want to pay half as much for AC" button.

    Buy the 1.5m wide water heater that stores 10kWh of hot water and lasts a week between heatings rather than the 70cm one that lasts a day.

    Such an unconscionable burden.

  • No on all fronts.

    The only reactor designs with any sort of history don't produce steam at high enough temperature for the sulfur cycle and haber process.

    The steam they do produce costs more per kWh thermal than a kWh electric from renewables with firming so is more economic to produce with a resistor.

    Mirrors exist. Point one at a rock somewhere sunny and you have a source of high temperature heat.

    Direct nitrogen electrolysis is better than all these options. It's had very little research but the catalysts are much more abundant than hydrogen electrolysers and higher efficiencies are possible.

    Using fertilizer at all has a huge emissions footprint (much bigger than producing it). The correct path here is regenerative agriculture, precision fermentation and reducing the amount of farmland needed by stopping beef. Nitrogen electrolysis is a good bonus on top of this.

  • The modern banking apparatus would devour any fixed standard currency in a few weeks by manipulating the value. It would be like being paid ij bitcoin. Every time the plebs needed to buy more than usual, money would be worthless. Every time they were short on money and needed to sell it would be super valuable.

    The only fix is redistribution. Wealth exponentially agglomerates, you have to spread it out once it does or your economic system breaks.

  • Anyone who is 89 or younger was 9 when wwii ended. They did not fight in wwii. You are talking about some combination of silent generation and baby boomers.

    Most if the US government is baby boomers or gen x. Only a handful are over 77