dragontamer @ dragontamer @lemmy.world

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Joined

2 yr. ago

Youth vote leaned into Trump. It's an across the board / demographics loss for Democrats.

You can't blame this on the boomers. It wasn't much leaning but Trump gained support here.

You need to just fully recognize that your brand of politics is falling apart and we need real answers in the next 4 years. It's going to be even harder after the grifters have even more megaphones drowning out the truth

Trump support increased on many levels.

Kamala had problems. But Trump is stronger than any of us are comfortable with.

More than that.

Half Indian and half black will be seen as a race traitor to Indian nationalists.

The way Democrats look at racism is fucking stupid and ignorant. You need to learn how minorities look at racism to understand.

Democrats are good for minorities and all KumBaYa and whatever. But minorities aren't like that and have based instincts as well. (Hint: minorities are also racist fucks)

Kamala did what she could and she was our best chance given the circumstances. I have no blame to anyone over this (Biden almost certainly would have lost, especially with the Garbage gaffs and other mistakes Biden has done).

Kamala hasn't lost yet mind you. But it's really not looking good. There can be an epic level of mail in votes or something that changes the numbers. But it's long odds as of now.

Philadelphia County is the big one for me.

Biden was 81% of that vote, but Harris is only 78% right now (obviously will change as more votes come in). If Harris is losing vs Biden in the most important county and with a -4% statewide deficit and 80%+ counted it's really not good.

I'm not sure where the votes can come from to get Harris PA. It's still too close to call but vs 2020 everything is worse.

Harris needs to tie or outperform Biden. She can't be behind. The blue shift is going to be far weaker this year in PA.

3% doesn't sound like a lot, but that's +5% to Trump over 700k voters (or so) for Philadelphia County. Do the math.

Biden beat Trump only by 80k votes in PA in 2020.

With NC Called for Trump tonight, its time for us all to take a rest and sleep. NC was the early decision point. We all expected it to go Trump, but if it went Kamala then Trump basically lost.

Now that Trump is confirmed to win NC, its a long road until PA is called. And Kamala needs to win PA, MI, and WI all together. No point stressing about it now, just sleep and you'll know tomorrow morning for two of those three. And wait until Friday before PA is called (or later, if its really really close).

Staying up a bit longer to see how AZ goes is interesting but likely not too important anymore.

Republican counties, with their fewer number of citizens, always report first. Rural areas are easier to count. Democrat counties, which tend to be urban, have far larger numbers and report later.

The trend doesn't matter on election day. Republicans always get the first wave, then Democrats catch up later. The question is how many urban areas are remaining in each state?

Answer: Lots for VA and NC. That's why AP hasn't called. Ignore the websites or newspapers that try to give you truth before the urban centers (with massive populations) dramatically shift the vote around.

I don't get it. There haven't been any surprises yet.

Pretty much every state is following as expected. Its going to be super close and come down to PA, MI, and WI.

God, that would almost make the next 36 hours or so worth it.

36 hours?

Uhhhh. Its like 1488 hours until January 6th, 2025, and I'm not even sure if all the issues will be resolved by then this time around. Even if Kamala wins.

In a nightmare Year 2000-like scenario (aka: Hanging Chads deciding an election), it could be the middle of December before the Supreme Court handles a hypothetical case that comes up tomorrow night.

Gestures at Twitter.com.

Remember how Elon lost a court case and was forced by contracts to buy Twitter?

This isn't Trump. This is an Elon Musk situation. The law can, and will, fuck Elon over. The doofus isn't anywhere as slippery as Trump.

For reference: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10307

(c)False information in registering or voting; penalties Whoever knowingly or willfully gives false information as to his name, address or period of residence in the voting district for the purpose of establishing his eligibility to register or vote, or conspires with another individual for the purpose of encouraging his false registration to vote or illegal voting, or pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than five years, or both: Provided, however, That this provision shall be applicable only to general, special, or primary elections held solely or in part for the purpose of selecting or electing any candidate for the office of President, Vice President, presidential elector, Member of the United States Senate, Member of the United States House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, Guam, or the Virgin Islands, or Resident Commissioner of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.

Oh, so are you pushing for a Senator or a Representative who can more seriously push the party left?

That the far left vote is fickle and that it's better to try to cater to Dick and Liz Chaney and hope for the solid neoconservative vote instead??

Yeah, abstain from voting harder. Let's see where that gets ya. If you want to pull the party left, the. Prove to the party that there is a left they can pull to.

It's pretty simple really.

We know that Twitter and Facebook interfered in the election by suppressing documents and information that would have hurt Joe Biden — think Hunter Biden’s laptop, the lack of scientific basis for COVID-19 restrictions and everything in between. It isn’t really a stretch to think that Republican speech was being suppressed in other ways across social media platforms.

But there has been a profound change in social media since the last presidential election. Elon Musk, a strong proponent of free speech, took control of Twitter/X in 2022, and as for Facebook, the discovery of its cover-ups most certainly has put a much harsher spotlight on it this time around.

What the fuck is this drivel?

The big reveal is a huge wtf to my brain.

The Jubilee is a time of celebration for Catholics.

Traditionally, the Jubilee is held every 25 or 50 years and is a time to celebrate progress, free slaves (back when slaves were legal), forgive sins, etc etc.

In a great celebration, it makes sense to add a bit of pop culture flair. It's also common to focus on children and youth outreach during the Jubilee and an anime character does a lot for that.

As for Luce herself. The Jubilee is also a time of great pilgrimages. It's recommended to get your 'once in a lifetime's visits to Vatican City (or other local holy sites: Santiago de Compostela, Fatima, Guadalupe). As such, Luce is modeled after the image of Pilgrims: Pilgrim staff, raincoat and dirty boots.

Her eyes are of the seashell, a Catholic sign for pilgrims. The seashells guide pilgrims to holy sites (if you've ever been on the Camino, all the next locations are marked with Seashells).

I'm expecting that Luce (thanks to the seashell eyes) will count as an official signpost for the next year of pilgrimages. She's got incredibly well thought out symbology here.

Edit: I should also note that the raincoat has the 2025 Jubilee of Hope flag on it.

In case you didn't get what that green spot on the raincoat was.

The skit doesn't make it appear that anyone is ahead. It just makes it clear that SNL and their crew is supportive of Kamala.

Wow. I don't like SNL so I wasn't expecting much. But I did have a lot of smiles here.

Well done.

No one has changed their minds over the last week. But the poll numbers keep changing.

The fact that all these polling groups move and march in unison is clearly indicative of covariance. The polls are related in subtle ways.

Everyone has an error and worse, the errors have correlations.

Poled over