candybrie @ candybrie @lemmy.world

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2 yr. ago

The problem is "a candidate dem voters want" doesn't have any obvious choices.

Like Harris isn't that popular, but the optics of skipping over a black woman when the VP would typically be the heir apparent? You think Gavin Newsom would be a good choice? Californians don't have a lot of good things to say about him right now. I haven't seen a lot of other names floated.

More like "hand-crafted" or "rustic" for a similar positive vibe.

How science often works is you try to disprove things, and if you can't, you accept them as likely to be true. So, to show that the thesis is complete and accurate, they're trying to find places where it's incomplete or inaccurate. In the defense, your job is to defend against these attempts.

I hate that debunking flat earth is now seen as serious rather than a 5th grade science experiment.

It's because we can write numbers in many ways. 9900/99 is 100 just as surely as 99.99... is.

I think we have a different understanding of ranked choice.

In your example, you have 3 candidates, and candidate 3 isn't very popular. He isn't many people's first choice. At the end of round 1, candidate 1 has 45% of the first choice votes, candidate 2 has 46% of the first choice votes, and candidate 3 has 9% of the first choice votes. Candidate 3 is then eliminated, and those who voted for him have their votes go to their second choice candidate. That should leave either candidate 1 or 2 winning. The only way he wins is if he had more first choice votes than one of the other candidates.

If someone who is everyone's second choice but no one's first choice wins, that sounds like approval voting or something similar, not ranked choice.

Edit: Looking at the referenced election, it looks like he was the most popular among the people who didn't want the 2 popular candidates. The first round was 8 candidates and a simple ballot. The second round was a runoff election with the 3 most popular candidates and a ranked choice ballot. He won the first round of that. No one had 50%, so instant runoff, but he also won the second round of that.

To avoid that situation, you would have had to change the run-off rules to only allow the 2 top people instead of the 3 top people. But it still was an in person run off that gave you the result you dislike.

You know the alternate name for ranked choice? Instant runoff.

In your opinion, why does making everyone come out a second time produce better results?

Were you around in March of 2020?

And more expensive than flying a good chunk of the time!

It's funny that they started with asking for ID and then changed their mind presumably based on how the person picked it up.

No. If you have hair, it needs to be covered. If you don't cover it, then you ought to shave it. But women shouldn't shave their heads. So they should wear hats. But if you don't have hair, you shouldn't wear a hat.

The thing is, placebos can actually be pretty effective. Hell, they're effective even if you know they're a placebo. And the more elaborate and similar to what you think would be involved in curing you, the more effective. So people going to chiropractors might actually be getting real results even if the things they're doing are junk.

They're the exact same mistake. Since the commenter you were responding to wasn't the one to originally make the mistake, but instead was arguing with someone who's premise relied on that mistake, it's weird to only get on them about it.

The reason people go to "No relationship with reality" is because many people use the polls to say "will" instead of "favored" or conflate "will" and "favored." When that's the standard you are often presented, of course you are going to come to conclusion polling doesn't have all that much to do with reality. Because it isn't that predictive. Especially when you're looking at things where we take this somewhat fuzzy number and turn it into a binary yes or no while the cloud of possibilities comfortably encompasses both outcomes.

So when talking to some making definitive statements about the outcome of an election based on polls, how they are using polls only has a tenuous relationship to reality.

This is a thread where someone made the statement "Trump would win if the election was today." based on polls. You said yourself, that's not what polls are for. Take it up with the person who is misusing the poll to make definitive statements like that rather than the person saying you can't trust the polls for that.

You can do ivf without that. It would just be very costly, very time consuming, and very frustrating. You just make one embryo at a time. Implant it without testing its viability. If it doesn't take, do it again. One at a time. It's an absolutely idiotic way to do it. But it is possible.

I'm saying people who don't play this credit game but otherwise are good financially also think it's dumb. Not just bad risks.

They're just also in anything processed. Everything has an allowable amount of bugs. And it isn't usually 0. https://www.fda.gov/food/current-good-manufacturing-practices-cgmps-food-and-dietary-supplements/food-defect-levels-handbook

You're discounting the people who have always lived within their means and so never took on debt. They also don't have good credit. They've never missed a payment. They're good for the money. But they don't have a history showing that because they've never needed that.

They said service the debt, not pay off the whole thing. For an analogy, your whole mortgage being less than your annual salary isn't a requirement; your monthly mortgage payment being a fraction of your monthly salary is.