astronaut_sloth @ astronaut_sloth @mander.xyz

Posts

6

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210

Joined

2 yr. ago

Isn’t it an international human rights violation to make somebody stateless?

Yes.

100% agreed. It should not be used as a replacement but rather as an augmentation to get the real benefits.

I study AI, and have developed plenty of software. LLMs are great for using unfamiliar libraries (with the docs open to validate), getting outlines of projects, and bouncing ideas for strategies. They aren't detail oriented enough to write full applications or complicated scripts. In general, I like to think of an LLM as a junior developer to my senior developer. I will give it small, atomized tasks, and I'll give its output a once over to check it with an eye to the details of implementation. It's nice to get the boilerplate out of the way quickly.

Don't get me wrong, LLMs are a huge advancement and unbelievably awesome for what they are. I think that they are one of the most important AI breakthroughs in the past five to ten years. But the AI hype train is misusing them, not understanding their capabilities and limitations, and casting their own wishes and desires onto a pile of linear algebra. Too often a tool (which is one of many) is being conflated with the one and only solution--a silver bullet--and it's not.

This leads to my biggest fear for the AI field of Computer Science: reality won't live up to the hype. When this inevitably happens, companies, CEOs, and normal people will sour on the entire field (which is already happening to some extent among workers). Even good uses of LLMs and other AI/ML use cases will be stopped and real academic research drying up.

Just from a quick look at https://fediverse.observer/, it looks like the Fediverse is mostly steady at 1-1.25 million monthly users (give or take) over the past two years with a slight decreasing trend. I think there are some reasons for this that are not entirely in our control.

There seems to be a global sentiment of disconnecting from social media and the internet in general. So, I wouldn't be surprised if ever platform is seeing a decaying user base. Anecdotally, among the people I see in real life, there is a general sense of exhaustion with online spaces. Whether it's from corporate-own, enshittified platforms to even places on the Fediverse, the people with whom I interact tend to find the entire thing hollow. They've trimmed down to one or two platforms (if that). In fact, I've even started to get that way. In the past, if someone were wrong and arguing against a point I made, I'd engage, especially if it's in something that I have expertise. Now, why bother? There's no use arguing; people have little interest in admitting fault or engaging in good faith (again anecdotally). That said, I'll concede that the Fediverse is a bit better on that front, but not by much.

Then there's the alternative nature of the Fediverse. It's been rehashed over and over about how "difficult" it is to get on and use. It's not actually that hard, but the barrier to entry is an extra step. That small extra step frightens people away from even joining. The only time that barrier gets broken is when a "legacy" social media platform does something anti-user. Then there is a refugee wave that comes in and goes out leading to a modest durable increase in users. Recently, there just hasn't been a major controversy on a major platform that leads people here.

Now, my final thought on this is to ask: Is a small and steady-ish population (despite modest decay) actually bad? In my view, I don't think it is. Being smaller and with a smallish barrier to entry means that we exclude a sizable number of the low-effort population. So, there's less (no zero) slop here. Plus, discussions, when had in good faith, can be much deeper and less filled with stupid low-effort jokes. Overall, I'm not too concerned with the number of people on the Fediverse. Growth isn't necessarily the best thing. Even so, with the way most mainstream platforms are going, it's inevitable that they will do something stupid that drives more people to the Fediverse at least for a time.

TL;DR: The monthly population is mostly steady with a modest decay. Most social media is likely seeing similar trends. I don't think the smaller userbase is that bad of a thing.

Somewhat related but I always half-joked that Clarence Thomas' anti-civil rights rulings were a long con to outlaw interracial marriage so he could divorce Ginny.

I already know the vote will fail, and even if it doesn't the Senate won't convict. But, Jesus, the Democrats need to do something. Even a symbolic gesture is welcome, and it's better if it can gum up the works and make Trump's agenda come to a screeching halt.

this “cameras for everything!” idiocy.

That's why I'm so impressed with how well it's actually working. When they get off that really weird self-imposed restriction, it could be an interesting technology.

Not great performance at all.

That's better than I was expecting to be perfectly honest.

I'm pretty impressed with the technology, but clearly it's not ready for field use.

Great article! For a few years, I was always deterred from projects because they had already been done and better, so there was no reason to do it. Now, though, I just enjoy implementing things in my own janky way and learning a bit along the way.

You do get promotions in the Army reserve.

Correct.

They are taking jobs that could have been a promotion for an experienced reservist.

Probably not. This little think tank was just stood up. Title 10 gives the maximum numbers of officers per service per grade ( https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/523), and I wholly doubt that five new O-5s make an actual difference to getting to that cap. I also doubt we are anywhere near the maximum numbers of authorized officers. There is a retention crisis after all.

Beyond that, they would have to compete within their own competitive categories, so whatever category these people are in is the only one (minorly) affected. In fact, what is most likely is that the Secretary of the Army authorized to add five to the quota for that competitive category to mean that no one gets negatively affected. When officers are directly appointed to senior grades (which does happen), it's not a big deal.

Look, I agree that this is bad, but it's not malicious...just dumb and a waste of time and money while cheapening the service career officers have. In the end, this is just a publicity stunt and an eval bullet for some General somewhere. There's plenty more to be outraged about from this administration than direct commissioning five idiot executives who will likely not do anything of substance.

LTC’s either have command or staff positions and often approve things like operations orders and contracts.

They are not going to have command. The article itself says they're going to some "Innovation Corps," which just sounds like some boondoggle assignment on a staff. They will have no actual Army job. They're just going to be pushing contracts to their companies. That's bad, but it already happens, so it comes out as just nothing. They are almost certainly not going to be in anyone's chain of command.

Plus, I'd bet they'll probably be at the Pentagon. An O-5 there has as much authority as an O-1 in the "real" military.

There’s virtually zero chance they’ve been put there for no reason

Probably just some flag officer's good idea fairy or a way for a flag to secure a job after retirement. Again, not good, but very par for the course for DoD stupidity and/or corruption.

There are plenty of actual things to get outraged over. Having some tech bros play Army as O-5s is not that important. The DoD already gets bent over a barrel by Palantir and other companies to use their software; it's wasteful and supports terrible companies. That's what to get outraged over, not some idiots being appointed as O-5s.

I get the sentiment, but this is really a nothing-burger. They're coming in as reservists, so they won't compete against active duty at all. I don't have much experience with the Army, so I don't know how their promotions work with regard to MOS. However, I'd imagine they aren't competing against other MOSes. There's also a history of doing this with doctors and lawyers.

In general, this is dumb and just a way for some idiot executives to play Army every so often and feel really big and important while doing nothing of value.

Yep, but those who resign for moral reasons will be more likely to take actual actions to protest/stop what's happening. The military will have a hard time recruiting competent people in that environment, though, and the people taking the vacancies will likely have diminishing competence as time goes on.

To put it in perspective, if more officers retire at 20, they'll generally be O-5s (Lieutenant Colonels or Commanders), and so the next year's promotion cycle will need to promote more O-4s to cover the vacancies. This will then trickle down, and suddenly, you have officers who have been O-3s for just a couple of years being promoted to O-4 rather than waiting longer and gaining experience.

In that scenario, there will be less efficiency in planning and execution and far more incompetence, and if being used against civilians, more brutality. But incompetence is easier to defeat in the long run. Seeing the incompetence and brutality will deprive the military of the smartest recruits who staff the important IT, intelligence, cyber, etc. communities. So, while they may get true believers, a lower proportion will be competent.

No matter how it shakes out, it will get very bad.

Not wrong. At "best," we'll see a fracturing of the military...which could be much more trouble than it's worth. I'd expect a small wave of resignations/desertions (since resignation for an officer takes a long time). The remainder of good people will actively try to avoid and sea-lawyer their way out of doing any damage to civilians without violating orders. There will be a good chunk who will happily fire on US civilians, though.

Plus, actual veterans and service members think it's stupid. "Thank you for your service" is a punch line.

Sounds like it's going to be a violent summer. As soon as the first protestor gets injured or killed, this will start to spin out of control.

I'm not a lawyer, but I really don't see how this is legal, unless executed in a very particular way. I really only think this is legal if a state's governor allows their NG troops to work with ICE under Title 32 within that state alone. Once a state's Guard gets federalized, they are working under Title 10. The important difference is that Title 32 grants governors the ability to use their NG for law enforcement, but Title 10 means that they fall under DoD policy, and therefore subject to Posse Comitatus and unable to engage in law enforcement unless legislation is passed.

With that said, the only way I could see this being used is within states with friendly governors (so red states) who mobilize their NG and offer DHS their personnel as aid. But then those personnel could only be used in their state. So, if Indiana mobilized their Guard on Title 32 orders and aided ICE, then they could only operate within Indiana unless invited into another state. If ICE wants to do a raid with Guard personnel in Chicago, then they are SOL because then that would be an interstate invasion.

What this could do is allow ICE personnel to focus on Democratic states while Republicans use their NG to do the majority of ICE's dirty work. In other words, a bunch of ICE people will come to blue states to do the rounding up, while NG will do the rounding up in red states.

My take, too. They can comply with the court order and save face. The charges are not very solid, though. This can play into Trump's hands in that if he's acquitted, just silently brushing it under the rug with another outrage (the admin is seriously just an outrage/scandal ponzi scheme). If he's convicted, then they can parade him around like they were right the entire time.

I think that's a bit simplistic. I think Biden's position on Gaza hurt turnout, but at the very most, that would mean Trump would win the electoral vote only rather than both the electoral and popular votes. There were several other reasons, e.g. the economy, Biden not bowing out earlier, Harris not putting some separation between them, etc. that ultimately doomed them.

Even beyond that, you'd think that at some point someone would realize that if you have to tell someone you aren't a monster even though you're acting monstrously, you're a monster, regardless of whose orders you're following.