archomrade [he/him] @ archomrade @midwest.social

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15

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1,615

Joined

2 yr. ago

the whole neck-and-neck race thing is basically clickbait for ads.

Yea, I kinda hate that attitude, too, honestly. True enough that polls are already like trying to read tea-leaves, and there's ample motivation to play games with the results to skew a particular way. But people tend to apply that analysis selectively so that they don't have to confront the possibility their candidate/political calculations aren't popular. When our media circles are being blasted with petty reporting about one candidate or the other taking a dookey on stage or whatever-the-fuck, it becomes increasingly difficult to keep expectations reasonably close to reality because you're ignoring about half the signs and granting too much weight to the signs you actually do see.

The race is neck-and-neck, by just about any reasonable projection. But the margin of error is something like +-3/4%, and that's assuming a healthy sample and is just a snapshot that is still weeks away from election day. A poll on the day of the election that has Harris -1 in Michigan could end up being Trump +3 or vice-versa, and that's completely within the margin for that poll.

But if you're not even hearing what's being said on the opposite end of the spectrum, let alone actually trying to understand what's being said, then you're gonna be completely taken for a ride come nov 6. For 6 months after the election, analysts and most Americans will be scratching their heads trying to understand what happened (win or lose) because people just have no idea what the other half of the country is actually feeling. And when people are sure they had it right, and then have those expectations flipped on the day, that's when you get people storming the capital or spending years prosecuting foreign interference that was completely out in the open the whole time.

Even if he was dead on his feet, how does that change anything? The only people who care about the optics of it are libs who already find him gross and disturbed... It makes dems feel better about their candidate's chances ("look, he's tired and on the ropes, give him the haymaker!"). If anything, him being a tired sleepy old man undercuts their message that he's a vindictive and dangerous fascist who's losing touch with reality. It wouldn't surprise me if his change in demeanor is an intentional choice to make him look more chill and reasonable.

You hear how republicans reacted to that town hall? They fucking loved it, they talk about it like it was a birthright trip or something.

Same with "Trump speaks slowly and closes his eyes for a couple seconds" being paraded around as him being 'exhausted' or even 'sundowning'.

None of it could possibly sway voters, it's just to make the voting base feel good about their choice of support.

It isn't open ended if the person is asking a question they've already made up their mind on lol.

An open-ended question is more like "are hotdogs sandwhiches or tacos?"

It is boomer-facebook level political cringe, is what it is.

I think people are being extraordinarily polite for something that was clearly debatelord bait.

This is getting out of hand, guys.

You misunderstand, I only mean that it's disconcerting that there may be some reason that cis-women do not find the hobby/group appealing

I was just asleep for three and I do not feel well rested.

I know ghost has a container deployment and uses activity pub

I do wonder how many within the man/woman responses are trans, too.

Idk if that survey was mainly advertised on lemmy, but i know that at least one instance that did a survey had maybe 2% woman respondents, but more than two thirds of those were transfem.

Either way, a little disconcerting. I'm not sure what to make of that or what (if anything) to do about it

This might be a controversial take, but I don't think racist bigotry is an intelligence thing

The study and measure of intelligence itself is a piece of the rationalization of racism.

We owe a lot of our scientific inheritance to genociders and racists and eugenicists - I wouldn't be quick to assume the MAGA base is just a bunch of dimwitted Americans.

Maybe because that shortage lasted about a week

If you live in America, you already are.

People forget about how much it felt like labor and employment were about to be revolutionized for the better back then. It really seemed like employers were finally going to be forced to adapt to better conditions.

Now it feels like that's all being undone. How many companies still have their remote work options? How many people are willing to leave their jobs for something better now?

I'll admit that I was one of the privileged few who were comfortable and secure during the pandemic: i had a job that could be remote without issue and i lived in a city that took precautions seriously

But

• remote employment was a 100% improvement to being stuck in my office and in a toxic environment
• because I was remote, there was no pressure to work extra hours when my projects didn't require it, which meant my work-life balance was much better
• the student loan moratorium helped me and my wife finally save up for a house down-payment and get ahead on our debt
• with the extra financial and work security, I finally reached a healthy weight and was the most fit i had been since college

Now, my weight is back up, my job is much less secure, my finances are strained again, and I feel like our future financial security is in question because the economy is dominated by two or three companies that may come crashing back down if AI turns out to be a bubble

This question is so subjective and incredibly personal, so i question the utility of it. But there's no question for me about how precarious my personal situation feels now vs back in 2020. Back then, our primaries and much of the Campaign revolved around questions that had significant impacts on my life, but this cycle none of what is being discussed in the campaigns have much to do with my personal security. I don't know if my remote job will last, I don't know how long my house (that I bought in 2021 thanks to covid stimulus efforts) will be worth more than my mortgage, I don't know if the items I rely on will continue inflating in cost or not, ect.

Again, I'm incredibly privileged. But democrats have switched focus to what happens if Trump wins, instead of focusing on what happens if they win. Seems like nothing significant is on the table for my family's security, and that doesn't comfort me at all. There's just no hope in this election, all there seems to be is fear.

Like I said, it's incredibly naive to think this problem goes away when Trump does.

Like how democrats splintered and fragmented when Biden stepped down?

They'll reform and continue gaining power in lower-level positions until the next election, like they've been doing since 2020

I cannot emphasize how naieve it is to think this problem will go away if all we do is beat trump, or even if he dies or gets incarcerated.

The US has a growing fascism problem

It does not go away with Trump. I wish democrats would address it instead of pointing at Trump like he's an aberration