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Posts
10
Comments
1,730
Joined
2 yr. ago

  • They're the party of "PEDOPHILES SHOULD BE KILLED, DEAD PEDOPHILES CAN'T REOFFEND, I HUNT PEDOPHILES, AND IT'S TOTALLY NORMAL AND NOT PROJECTION THAT I'VE MADE THIS MY ENTIRE IDENTITY." Which is effectively the same thing but is slightly different.

  • The fact that the some of the most immoral spin-doctors that aren't directly related to the Trump campaign -- Posobiec and Kirk for starters -- are clearly trying to get out in front of some sort of bad news that, based on their comments, appears to be a video grants more weight to claims than this random article.

    That being said, whether there is actually a video or they're reacting to the same rumored threat is unknown. Even if it were true, I honestly don't know if it would make enough of a difference for Trump's supporters. And, again if true, the longer they hold the video and allow advance spin and damage control to run unopposed, the less effect it will have. The simple fact is that Trump supporters would then be looking for any reason to simple dismiss/ignore it, and they will undoubtedly be given many reasons by affiliates of Trump's campaign.

  • That only counts Latino RV in swing states, excluding Georgia. And it's 31% not 29%. That means it's not counting the vast majority of Latino voters in the states with the largest Latino populations, notably California, Florida, Texas, or New York. That's hardly a representative sample. This is the definition of selectively cherry-picking data to support your point.

  • And the locked "knife display"? Here are my knives, I really like knives, I like to display that I really like knives, would you like to talk about knives? Can I talk at you for 30 minutes about sharpening techniques? Perhaps you'd like to visit my katana collection in the other room? Lol. All kept near his fedora collection no doubt.

    All in the name of friendly ribbing though, hobbies are cool and often niche. I'm often a little bemused by people's esoteric or nerdy hobbies.

    But I'm scared to ask if this dude even has kids, or if he's just storing his kitchen knives in a locked box out of sheer paranoia. There's safe and then there's... whatever this is.

  • He played like 350 rounds of golf during his presidency. That seems fine to me, but it seems weird to try to minimize that fact. He would regularly fly and play at resorts in Florida, Martha's Vineyard, and around DC. I Googled it, it was pretty well covered.

    If that seems problematic to you, think about this: Trump (among many others) loudly criticized Obama for how much golf he played, but then when Trump took office, he proceeded to play twice as much golf.

    If you think that's crazy, Woodrow Wilson played twice as much as Trump!! Even during WWI!

  • It is legally very clear, but not in the way you're hoping. The Supreme Court ruled—unanimously I would add—that individual states do not have the authority to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to disqualify a candidate from federal office. That power lies solely with Congress, which is probably a good thing or we'd have conservative-controlled courts in red states declaring every Democratic presidential nominee ineligible every election cycle.

    While the Court left open the possibility for Congress to act, there is currently no legislation addressing this issue. For Congress to disqualify a candidate under Section 3, they would first need to pass a law, which would require 60 votes in the Senate to avoid a filibuster and a simple majority in the House. Only then could they decide the specific voting threshold for disqualification. In reality, this is highly unlikely to happen.

    In the extraordinarily improbable event that Trump wins but somehow Democrats secure a majority in the House and simultaneously expand to 60 Senate seats—or, in an even more bizarre scenario, they hold only 50 seats, abolish the filibuster, and have Vice President Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to disqualify the candidate who defeated her—they could theoretically draft, pass, and enact such legislation. They could then invoke it to disqualify Trump before his inauguration. With a 17-day window between the seating of the new Congress and the president’s swearing-in, this scenario is technically possible, but politically fantastical.

    Such an unlikely scenario, like a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, would absolutely ignite a political crisis and likely a stochastic civil war in the United States.

    Sadly, the fact is, none of that will happen, and Trump appears to now have a slight edge in the electoral college (he's currently about 6% more likely to win the EC than Harris according to Silver's model), it's quite possible, leaning towards probable, that Trump will win the election, get rid of most of the lawsuits against him, purge and/or dissolve several federal agencies, install loyalists at all levels of the government, and begin his deportation and vengeance tour with a bought-and-paid-for SCOTUS knocking down any attempts to stop him.

    Sorry to be a bummer.

  • You know Harris's declining probability of winning is sinking in when we're hoping the courts will defy the long sequence of continuous nothing they've done so far and will suddenly declare Trump ineligible.

    If wishes were fishes, we'd all cast nets.

  • We'll be told the economy can't afford another lockdown, so people will just have to report to work and risk dying. I highly doubt most countries will do that again in the near future. Let alone people abiding it.

    I really feel like that was a moment where we could have seen radical social change, but instead it just ended up being a blip when everyone made Tiktok videos. I always imagine what it would have been like if, for some unknown reason, like a massive EMP flare from the sun or something, made all digital and internet technology die.

    I think the best hope for the world at this point might literally be an extremely large and direct solar event/CME. It would cause chaos and result in a lot of deaths, but it seems like the only thing that would actually radically change the suicidal trajectory global society is currently on.

  • A black venti coffee from Starbucks has almost 450mg of caffeine. 200mg probably isn't "whopping (!)"-worthy.

    I have a co-worker that drinks a pot of coffee at work each day by himself. That's about 1,200mg of caffeine, and he has a cup in the morning before he gets to work, so he's probably having about 1,500mg/day. Admittedly that's on the high side.

    800mg of caffeine from black coffee per day is actually shown to be good for you. Reduced risk of alzheimer's, type 2 diabetes, certain cancers, and Parkinson's. Reduces inflammation. Lowered rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer.

  • Nate Silver's model, which is literally the first linked model in the article you shared, has Harris up by 1.5% in national polling. The margin of error is 3%. That's called being "well within the margin of error."

    The same model has Trump with a 5.9% higher chance than Harris of winning the electoral college.