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12 mo. ago

  • Not so fun thing:

    There is a whole debate about the "optimal" economic path during climate change, from a GDP perspective. One of the core issues is the question of interest rate. By assuming "market typical" interest rates around 1,4%, the future quickly gets discounted so much, that no matter the economic damage, because of the underlying growth assumptions, you end up with the Stern review marking 3°C as optimal economic outcome...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review#Discounting

    Discounting into the future, the whole interest rate and debt system, assuming growth... all of these are core positions of mainstream economics.

    With the illusion of being a natural science rather than a social science, economics get way too much credit and of course there is a very problematic revolving door between financial institutions and economic research/education.

  • Problem is one of the "crazies" not only going after neighbor after neighbor after neighbor, with you likely being one of the next ones, but also holding a family hostage in their home, killing their newborns and torturing them for fun.

    Without a serious reconcilliation and move towards Arab unity, Israel will eventually knock on everyones doorstep.

  • 08:10 GMT:

    Israel’s defence minister orders ‘intense strikes’ on Tehran

    Israel Katz has instructed the Israeli military to “respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran,” according to media reports.

    This comes shortly after the Israeli military said it was now safe to exit shelters.

    The Times of Israel said Iran fired two ballistic missiles and that both were intercepted.

  • 30 hours aren't multiple days. Nonetheless it is completely reckless for this to occur in the first place, endangering both patients and staff.

    Even then, taking some sleep during the breaks is preferable over going without any sleep.

  • This is terrible advice.

    Nobody goes "routinely" multiple days without sleeping. The only way military is doing that if necessary is methamphetamine, see German troops during WW2.

    After 24-48 hours there will be an onset of psychosis, after 48 hours without sleep most people experience psychosis, especially in combination with drugs.

  • You are arguing against a complete strawman. The claim was that Iranians would "remember" "liberty", which serves to whitewash the Shahs regime. I refuted that claim as it is evidently wrong. I don't know why you think that an internal police murdering, torturing and dissapearing thousands of people would fall under any understanding of liberty.

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK

    The Bureau for Intelligence and Security of the State (Persian: سازمان اطلاعات و امنیت کشور, romanized: Sâzmân-e Ettelâ'ât va Amniyyat-e Kešvar), shortened to SAVAK (Persian: ساواک) or S.A.V.A.K. (Persian: س.ا.و.ا.ک),[2] was the secret police of the Imperial State of Iran. It was established in Tehran in 1957 by national security law,[3] and continued to operate until the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when it was dissolved by Iranian prime minister Shapour Bakhtiar.

    Writing at the time of the Shah's overthrow, Time magazine on February 19, 1979, described SAVAK as having "long been Iran's most hated and feared institution" which had "tortured and murdered thousands of the Shah's opponents".[7] The Federation of American Scientists also found it guilty of "the torture and execution of thousands of political prisoners" and symbolising "the Shah's rule from 1963–79." The FAS list of SAVAK torture methods included "electric shock, whipping, beating, inserting broken glass and pouring boiling water into the rectum, tying weights to the testicles, and the extraction of teeth and nails".

    A lot of the structures and part of the personell of SAVAK was then integrated into the current internal police such as the Evin Prtison

    There was no liberty under the US backed regime and whitewashing them as a means to present the US and Israel as the better alternative is wrong.

  • I have posted it a few times already over the past days: but we need to remember this:

    This is the Democratiic parties election platform 2024 (see P82/P83):

    Through aggressive diplomacy backed by U.S. military power, the Administration has worked alongside our allies and partners to deter and defend against Iran and its terrorist surrogates. President Biden has postured U.S. military forces in the region and authorized precision airstrikes on key Iranian-linked targets tied to attacks against U.S. troops to deter further aggression by Iran. President Biden has also continued to protect the American people from terrorism, authorizing military strikes that took out ISIS emirs and the leader of Al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri. In response to brazen attacks by Iranian-linked Houthi forces against international commercial shipping, U.S. naval vessels in the Red Sea, and Israel, President Biden ordered military strikes, alongside key allies, against Houthi targets and organized Operation Prosperity Guardian, a coalition of more than 20 nations committed to defending international shipping and deterring Houthi attacks.

    When Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones against Israel in April 2024, President Biden led an unprecedented defensive coalition – together with partners from Europe and across the Middle East – to defeat the attack, protect Israel, and stop the spread of a wider war. Through direct defensive action by the U.S. military and its partners, Iranian munitions did not cause significant damage, demonstrating both America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel and our unrivaled ability to leverage growing regional integration among U.S. partners to counter Iranian aggression.

    All of this stands in sharp contrast to Trump's fecklessness and weakness in the face of Iranian aggression during his presidency. In 2018, when Iranian-backed militias repeatedly attacked the U.S. consulate in Basra, Iraq Trump’s only response was to close our diplomatic facility.

    They are literally calling Trump "weak" for not engaging militarily enough. This is the same language of Trump of "Peace through strength" and ultimately there is no indication, the Democrats would not have jumped at Netanyahus order to get into the war.

  • Why did Iranians fight a revolution against the US and Israel backed Shah again? I think Israel and the US, and when they still mattered the UK were pretty deadly for Iranians and continued to be ever since.

  • The only real threat that the US has, is to use their bases in the region and their navy to also close the strait for the other ships. This would lead to a direct confrontation with China and the other countries Iran exports Oil to.

    The US could also use its navy to cordon through every western bound tanker, but as we saw in the Red Sea this cannot be done with just a few ships. The US would need to move huge naval assets to the strait. This would lead to the US wasting huge amounts of resources to maintain the status quo, while also being unable to project power in regions like East Asia, where China could use the vacuum to ramp up their dominance.

    Or well, the US could commit fully to a ground invasion in Iran to force regime change, subsequently ruining itself and making Vietnam look like a walk in the park in comparison.

    The reality is that Netanyahu successfully trapped the US in West Asia which is disastrous for American geopolitics. Ukraine and Taiwan could suffer grave consequences, but this is what Netanyahu wants. By causing trouble, the "oldest child" forces the "parents" to pay all their attention to it, instead of the "younger siblings".

  • Most of Russia is covered by Forests or Peatlands, which are actually far superior in carbon sequestering. All the coal that is burned used to be peat. Same is true for most of Canada, which is in about the same climate zone.

    The last thing we need is more meddling with one of the areas that actually helps in carbon sequestering.

  • That is a great point. Commit a false flag attack on an Anti-Abduction protest, scare the protestors, deny responsibility and forbid any further protests due to "security reasons" then kill anyone who decides to protest despite the ban, again for their own security.

  • There is three major "theaters" right now:

    1. Eastern Europe (Ukraine)
    2. West Asia (Middle East)
    3. East Asia

    The US already moved multiple ships from East Asia to facilitate the attacks on Iran. If Iran responds by retaliating against US based in the region, the US will probably commit large amounts of forces and get itself into another Iraq/Afghanistan style situation.

    This removes US forces and restocking capabilities from East Asia. Now China can expand itself in that region, which the US had thought to contain by its military presence.

    The US has been trying to "pivot" out of West Asia into East Asia for over a decade now. This also explains Israels attacks on Iran now in an attempt to force the US to maintain focused on the region. Think of it like the older child throwing tantrums when their younger sibling is getting more attention.