Salamendacious @ Salamendacious @lemmy.world

Posts

395

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1,246

Joined

2 yr. ago

I don't know what's in Manchin's head. I don't think he wants to run as a spoiler for Biden. I think he's looking to run as a spoiler for Trump. Then again he could be talking about a presidental run just to stay in the limelight. Who knows.

I don't like saying, "manchin knows he can't win so he's not running" because I don't know that. There could be some alternate reality where he runs and beats Justice. Maybe Sanders could have beaten Trump. Maybe Trump would have beaten Sanders. My point is there's no way for us to know any of these things.

That's the market: bull\bear, boom\bust that's why you need to diversify especially as you get older and not rely on only stocks.

As an incumbent Fetterman will have advantages and his reelection is a Long way off but he really should have clobbered Dr Oz and he got 51% of the vote? It's enough but I feel like it should have been more. I'll be pulling for him that's for sure though.

Well neither one of us knows what he's thinking and neither one of us has a crystal ball but this race is going to be a difficult run for any Democrat. Justice may very well have been able to out-Manchin Manchin. I think it's a good idea to make this a contest of completely different world views. Neither one of knows right now who would win Manchin vs Justice or Shrewsbury vs Justice.

Joe manchin did win three Senate races he was also a secretary of state and governor of West Virginia. That's a lot of wins for a Democrat in West Virginia where Trump beat Biden by something like 39%. I'm not trying to tell you to like him or anything but that's impressive to me.

Well how do you define pyramid scheme and how do you think it applies to 401ks?

Let's be honest. He'll need to be a lot better than Fetterman. Pennsylvania is much bluer than west Virginia and Dr Oz was a pathetic candidate. I really hope Fetterman is laying a solid reelection foundation right now because his reelection run will probably be more difficult. Jim Justice is known statewide, he's wealthy, and has won the governor's mansion as a Democrat and as a Republican.

We'll see. Turn out for the last election was the best since 1960. I think turn out will go down next year unfortunately. I truly hope I'm wrong. But I think next year is going to be a democratic massacre. People like Shrewsbury might actually turn that around. Who knows.

So you sent me down a rabbit hole and I agree with you. I think the market is overvalued. For me the question is now what does that mean and I see three possible options: 1) market trends down to equilibrium 2) market quickly drops to equilibrium & 3) market over corrects and goes below equilibrium. It looks like from the great recession until 2015 we were under valued and valuation has spiked since then except for the COVID drop, which brought us again to equilibrium. I think #2 is the most likely scenario. I'm not going to pull my retirement accounts out but I'm going to keep an eye on this. Thanks for the heads up

Wikipedia uses a good definition for pyramid scheme:

A pyramid scheme is a business model that recruits members via a promise of payments or services for enrolling others into the scheme, rather than supplying investments or sale of products. As recruiting multiplies, recruiting becomes quickly impossible, and most members are unable to profit; as such, pyramid schemes are unsustainable and often illegal.

I don't think that describes a 401k. I don't get money if I convince you to open a 401k. I do pay fees to a company to manage my 401k but I've chosen the lowest fees available to me.

Bernie took w Virginia over Hillary, I think if he raises enough money and communicates his message well people will respond to him. My gut says that Jim Justice will get the Republican nomination and he will be a difficult candidate to beat. He's won governor races as a Democrat and a Republican. Trump likes justice and Trump won west Virginia handedly. The odds are stacked against Shrewsbury but I still think he has a good chance if he can establish his own story and not let justice paint him as some crazy Marxist.

That's an interesting take. What do you base your prediction on?

Do you think 401ks are a pyramid scheme?

Everyone hates it when I say it but if I had to choose between manchin and a generic Republican to be the west Virginian senator I'd pick manchin 100% of the time. I really hope Shrewsbury is successful. He'll need to raise money and he'll need to do well in the debates. There will be more Democrats coming into the race soon I imagine.

West Virginia has pretty equal numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans (36.5% & 36.8% respectively) so this will be a battle over turn out and convincing the remaining voters. We'll see where his numbers are in six months.

Risk of suicide among prison guards is 39% higher than the national average

Source

Women 100% work in men's prisons. One of the things that led to women getting hired in men's prisons was a shortage of men who wanted to work as a prison guard.

If given the option I will 100% of the time take being lucky over being good. That said I'm still saving like crazy because I do not want to work until I die.

I'm sorry your daughter had to face severe bullying. I sincerely hope she doing better now. You might want to consider looking into the homeschool community. They frequently have social outings. It might be a good way to give her access to peers in a less stressful environment than school was.

I looked but didn't find a lot. This might be the art x art. The art is beautiful here though regardless

https://www.artsy.net/fair/art-x-lagos-2023/artworks