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  • AOC had a similar response on Pod Save America.

    You win political influence by being a crucial part of a win. You lose political influence if your political opponents are in office. The best chance to have your voice heard on Israel is being a crucial part of a Harris win.

    That is the calculation.

  • I mean I'll do you one better, Moodys did inflation research in 2022 and found that laws signed by Biden contributed 0.1% of the then 8.5% inflation. Basically nothing, it was all Covid supply chains and a Russian oil shock.

    But, that's still the explanation for why incumbents around the world are unpopular right now.

  • It's close because Trump is not a disciplined candidate and he keeps doubling down on young men instead of trying to build his appeal to new areas.

    Most of the time if inflation hits 9% and wages lag behind inflation (as they always do) the incumbent party loses. Nikki Haley would be winning 60/40 right now.

  • There's a middle ground. The near future of the party is Ron DeSantis and JD Vance, the smoothed down versions of Trump. I don't think that works and someone new will come out fully populist with authoritarian edges, maybe a Hispanic man to help attract the working class beyond just white people, that seems to be the growth opportunity Republicans need and maybe that solidifies Arizona/Nevada/Texas for them while they put all the effort into the Blue Wall and North Carolina.