OccamsTeapot @ OccamsTeapot @lemmy.world

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5

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770

Joined

2 yr. ago

For me it's not so much about the specific number and more "Who will win" and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.

I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it's too late to do anything about it

Sorry, if anything I've come to hold these beliefs more strongly as I get older.

And how old are you?

No it's a "thing" to bring it up if someone says "don't share your opinion," super clear from the conversation.

"What you're saying is inaccurate"

Yeah if you had said that it would have been a very stupid response

I hate humanity in almost every form. I don't give a shit about being a human being, human lives are worthless. My life is worthless, your life is worthless, their lives are worthless, it's all worthless.

It's meaningless but it is not worthless. Even yours, despite all of the horrendous, wannabe edgy shit you just posted. One day you will cringe about this, and you'll be a better person for it.

Really? What about 2020

Almost all correctly predicted a Biden win. We don't need the precise number just the general lay of the land

Criticizing Biden on something as niche as Lemmy won't make Biden better. But it might make people less likely to vote for Biden.

Oh sorry I better fuck off to Twitter then. I know Biden isn't reading. I still have freedom of speech and can say whatever I like on Lemmy.

You can tell me I'm helping the republicans if you want, I don't care. Either it's on me for expressing my opinion or it's on Biden for sending weapons and providing political cover to a government on trial for genocide. If you want to blame me and people like me I think that says more about you than it does about us.

Yeah but that's why these people are professionals. Of course it's complicated to do this but statisticians do it all the time. If there's a known confounding factor (e.g. young people don't answer calls) then it can be adjusted for. I know polling isn't perfect but I find these points are less "I have a technical point about the problems with extrapolation/interpolation" and more "This poll doesn't show what I want so there must be a problem"

the pollsters definitely get that landlines are old news and most people don’t even answer unknown numbers on their cell phones. The same applies to text requests for political surveys. Response rates — or, rather, non-response rates — are awful. But pollsters know all of that and they’ve come up with pretty smart ways to deal with it. Without getting too far into the weeds, it comes down to increasingly sophisticated ways of modeling the electorate, using those models to weight the results, and in so doing backing out a representative sample from the data.

Just quoting this here because I've seen this point made many times.

From most polls I've seen, the US public still generally backs Israel.

This seems a bit misleading. People want a permanent ceasefire, a two state solution, a stop to the indiscriminate bombing of Palestinian civilians and would like any aid to Israel to be dependent on them pledging not to occupy Gaza after the war. I don't think Israel agrees with any of that?

I wish we could go back and ask one of the malnourished Jewish people from the Nazi concentration camps what they think of this and the people that do it.

I'm sure they know just how it feels to be denied basic necessities of life because of a racist belief that you are an animal and your suffering doesn't matter.

They say "never again" and yet here we are again.

No need to apologise, I wasn't as clear as I could have been!

Yeah I agree with you completely. This is me mocking the same thing you are! Probably wasn't clear.

I should have put "DNC:" or something above it

I don't think so. It's just theatre at this point

This doesn't really address my point. I understand how first past the post works (also from a country with this system), the issue is whether Biden is going to win at all. Polls say no and maybe that should be an issue?

Nobody said "anyone criticising Biden is supporting Trump"

People absolutely say that on Lemmy, at least.

It's a matter of de facto supporting trump by discouraging the Democratic vote. If Biden would step aside and someone else could run, great. If not, talking shit about Biden absolutely helps Trump.

This would be a great point if it looked like Biden was going to win. But as things stand, he's behind in the polls. So we should be criticising to make him better. You know, if you actually want to stop Trump.

This should make all of the people who insist that anyone criticising Biden is supporting Trump think again. How is he going to win if we just pretend he's awesome while nobody actually believes it?

"Trump would be worse" is not the compelling political platform you seem to think it is.

If Israel were interested in wiping out Gaza, the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands or millions, which would be consistent with other world conflicts.

This is a common argument but it doesn't really hold up to scrutiny. You're saying what would happen if Israel was interested in wiping out Gaza and didn't care at all about their image. If they did (which they obviously do) they would have to do it more subtly. They are not just going to drop a few nukes and call it a day, that would be geopolitical suicide

That might be because the point is completely and utterly stupid. We're signalling the virtue of "understanding how primaries work"

But that advice is falling on deaf ears in Washington, as did many previous warnings that the US is violating international law and could eventually be found complicit in war crimes or even genocide, because of its unwavering support and weapons shipments to Israel.

While Biden complains about the petulant Israeli leader who won’t listen, his presidency is now at risk. It’s a self-inflicted wound that Biden could have avoided by standing up to Netanyahu months ago.

Why would leftists do this?! They must be secret Trump supporters