Joncash2 @ Joncash2 @lemmy.ml

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2 yr. ago

Oh yeah, completely agree. Misunderstood that my bad.

I think differently actually. And unfortunately, I'm not sure it's going to work out for Zelensky, but I don't blame him for trying.

So China is not directly supplying weapons. Zelensky implied as much so far. What he's saying is China is supplying gun powder and artillery shells. With the obvious implication that Russia is filling the shells with the gun powder and making them live. This had probably been happening the whole time. This is the complaints about dual use.

So why now? Well, it's a good time to get China riled up so they'll comment. Zelensky needs weapons, even if China doesn't stop selling to Russia, selling to Ukraine as well would be good. In which case Zelensky can turn around and say then come talk to us, if your neutral you'll let us buy too. Which might have been a good plan if USA wasn't completely fucking insane and keeping China from even talking because they got other shit to deal with.

And USA is tariffing everyone. But China the hardest. Forcing all nations to have to trade heavily with China just to survive now. This trade war is USA's greatest gift to Xi ever.

I don't have proof, but I'm pretty sure China and Russia bought the current US government. It's the only thing that makes sense. And the heavy China tariffs are here just to put the nail in the US coffin while convincing idiots to cheer China bad.

Your right. It could be both. I mean, my wife said to me the other day that she heard Trump was doing the tariffs to lower the bond interest rates. I said while in some types of recessions that's true, that wouldn't work in this case and you'd have to be an idiot to think it would. Sure enough the next day Trump puts a stay on tariffs to most of the world because the bond market got rocked. All I could think of is omg, are they really that fucking stupid?

I wish it was that. No, this is actual evil, not incompetence. Trump has turned the US economy into the largest pump and dump scheme ever. Worse, he's bragging about how his friends made billions. I can't even believe this is happening. I'm in utter shock. I knew Trump would be bad, but straight up flaunting corruption like it's a joke and even bringing the SCOTUS on board with this. I'm just gob smacked.

That's not a bad way to put it. Yes, and bonds will sink slower. It just still will sink. I mean, if I were investing at all, it'd be in bonds. However, I'm not going to pretend it's safe either.

Sort of? Bonds will be safer, however it also is incredibly dependent on the forward inflation. The flation part of stagflation. If inflation outstrips your bond's interest, you're still losing money. So bonds are way safer than other assets, but sadly in this kind of a situation not really safe either.

You don't understand. Chinese companies have been preparing for this for almost a decade now thanks to US policies. Here's manufacturing locations just for Moto.

https://motosmartphones.com/where-are-motorola-phones-made/

How much is it really made in Brazil? Enough to by pass the tariffs.

This is transhipment. China has been building an enormous transhipment network with those countries heavily dependent on Chinese heavy machinery and services. They expected this, they prepared for this. It's the US companies that tried to obey their own countries rules that are susceptible. Even Samsung has been working with China to create these networks. Soon, I would estimate, Apple will as well. The problem is, if you thought Tik Tok was a national security issue, forcing every US company to use Chinese logistics to fight your own countries tariffs...

Oh god how stupid. China has built an entire transhipment network. China was never going to pay those tariffs anyway. Instead, US companies that desperately tried to follow the rules are still stuck shipping from China. So what happens next? US companies will now have to beg China access to these networks. You thought Tik Tok was a national security issue? When all your goods and services imports are controlled by China...

Worse the canceling of the deminis clause was only against China and HK. But both those companies have transhipment logistics networks across the globe. We are about to see millions of packages a month from dozens if not a hundred different countries. They're asking for China to unleash what it's spent the past 5 years building up.

The Trump government doesn't understand. US previous actions created this. Perhaps if they did this immediately, China couldn't respond. But China has been courting the global south for decades to set up a resilient logistics network for literally this reason. If you ever wondered what BRI is about, well your about to find out.

I'm Taiwanese, I know much better what the Taiwanese want than you do. Go through these posts if you want to know my opinion, as well as you'll see my passport.

As to the other stuff, bullets were not fired at India. They don't even patrol with guns. Please read the news before making stuff up.

I'm Taiwanese, if you look through my comment history you'll see I showed my passport. We want the status quo. We do not want to protest or fight for independence. I'm making these posts as a Taiwanese person because I'm tired of foreigners who never have been to Taiwan or at most a vacation trying to tell me and my people how we should think.

As to the other stuff, I don't have an opinion one way or the other. It's too complicated and each one deserves it's own complex analysis. I will however point you to Johnny Harris. I believe he gives a fairly unbiased opinion on all of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9IiZkMKi68

If you're not just trolling and being anti-China I highly recommend giving it a view.

I mean China sells to both sides. They don't really give aid in the traditional way. It's just about money. But yeah, it's pretty messed up just in a completely different way than what the west does.

And I agree with your ideals, but sadly that's definitely not happening in our lifetimes.

I mean China has stated over and over and responded over and over in a way that states China would not willingly become a dominant force. China's whole thing is they only care about their country and their people and what ever happens in the world it's not their business.

But here's some historical examples for what I'm talking about.

1. Ukraine Russian war. Yes, China sells drone parts and machinery to Russia. That's constantly talked about as if this is absolute proof that China is supporting Russia's war against Ukraine. However, Ukraine is just as dependent on these parts and machinery as Russia is. So by that logic, China is supporting Ukraine in the war.
2. Myanmar. Is currently in a massive civil war. Myanmar is completely under China's sphere of influence to the point where no external actor is willing to interfere. Yet China is willing to just let the people do whatever they feel is right. Even though it's literally causing a genocide in the nation.
3. Sudan. Basically the same as Myanmar. Though an interesting side story to this is Sudan had Chinese tanks that South Sudan did not. Those tanks absolutely crushed the T-72 tanks that South Sudan has. Though that kind of went sideways because South Sudan simply avoided the tanks and attacked in other areas. But if anyone is wondering, yes China's military equipment far out paces Russia.
4. Vietnam. After the Sino-Vietnam war, China controlled about 20% of Vietnam. They declared victory and then told the Vietnam government that they respect their sovereignty and just simply left. It was the last war that China ever committed itself to.

Ultimately, China's whole rise to power is one of completely unwillingness to get involved in anything. It's one of the reasons no one respects China as a super power. However, with USA doing what it's doing, it by default goes to China. I don't know what it means ultimately, but at least for the near future, China is going to allow insane genocide in so much of the world. Something that USA would have gone to war over. They won't be dominant, but are you sure that's what you want?

Well the weirdest thing to me is I am saying China becoming the world's super power will lead to genocide. Not caused by China itself, but by China's inactions. And my proof is historical from Sudan and Myanmar. Yet people are calling me a pro-China shill? It's odd at best.

You know, I'm confused what people are disagreeing with. I've only stated facts.

Sudan and Myanmar are completely under China's sphere of influence. They are both in the middle of a civil war. China has done nothing and supplied both sides.

Taiwan has consistently stated they want the status quo. Congress is heavily in favor of that. So much so they made a law to handcuff the president from declaring.

China has repeatedly stated they believe Taiwan will aquiesce peacefully and will only invade if Taiwan unilaterally declares independence.

Thus, in a situation where China is the sole hegemony, China knows they are right about Taiwan and will simply wait out Taiwan. If the world is under Chinese sphere of influence we'll see a massive uptick in civil wars.

It's important to understand who the military exercises are aimed at. It's aimed at USA, every Taiwanese person knows this. Which is why we literally have people come out and take pictures of the weapons going off instead of hiding or fearing anything. It's fine, everyone seems to like firing off their weapons near our island at this point. It's not like USA, Australia, Japan, Russia, North Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, England, France, India I could go on, but they're all firing weapons. This is actually why China keeps increasing the size of the exercises. They're trying to show no matter how many people are there, they'll have the force to handle it (they don't, that's what 2027 is about). Actually MORE IMPORTANTLY China doesn't have the soldiers to actually fight the war. If you ever wondered how China's military budget is so tiny compared to USA's and yet has so much equipment, it's because they don't actually train their soldiers. It's also how we know China is using the equipment for fear factor and not an actual invasion. They would need to massively expand their military size and training. China seems big with 2 million active soldiers, but almost all of those soldiers are trained for humanitarian aid. AND it's not even enough to take on USA alone if USA activates their reserves let alone their allies (which is probably going away now). Plus, it's almost all army grunts who are tasked with cleaning up city streets like they did in HK during the riots. They're desperately short on pilots. So China doesn't have a real fighting force, and the force they do have is incredibly corrupt, which is what all the firings of the heads of departments is about. China knows this, they also know the only thing they can really do is saber rattle, because all their soldiers are spoiled brats who couldn't go to a good school.

As to your second question I have no real answer. If you go all the way back to my original post this is what I was talking about. IF China is sole hegemony, China has a strong policy of never sending their soldiers to do anything anywhere ever, unless Taiwan declares independence. Note, the whole Philippines thing isn't against Chinese military but their coast guards. They're trained to use water cannons not weapons.

So what happens? Well this is the scary part, if USA actually retreats, there's nothing holding the nations together who are upset at their governments. We're going to see massive genocides across the world.

On the other hand, to your ideal, who is USA to tell other nations to obey in the first place? All I know is that if China wins completely, the world will be more chaotic, at least for a while.

*Edit: Fun fact. In case you're wondering why I'm so fluent in English it's because I went to High School and College in the US, like most of my friends and family. I find it horrifyingly disappointing that the US is doing what it's doing since I used to very much consider it a second home. But alas, the world is never really what we want is it?

I mean if you ask Taiwanese people in the very long run would it be nice if Taiwan is independent I would argue probably 70% would agree with that. But we're fine with that not happening for hundreds of years if so be it. We're mostly fine with the situation the way it is right now. Which is exactly why I dislike people bringing up Taiwan whenever they talk about China. First it's always about war, second it's always about us wanting an independence we're not actually thinking about within our lifetimes. Taiwan only becomes a hot zone IF the US makes it a hot zone. China has stated they have no plans to take Taiwan by force unless necessary and will prepare a strong enough military by 2027 to fight the US. The US has taken that to mean China will invade in 2027. What China is really saying is we're going to be so strong that Taiwan would want to return. I don't think that's true. Most Taiwanese people do not want to return. However, if USA keeps doing what it's doing, Taiwan may U-turn. There's a lot of unhappiness right now about America. BUT that's also why we like the status quo. We see the winds changing. We want the best opportunities for ourselves regardless of who leads the world.

Well ask away. I'm mostly here to try to get westerners to realize that their black and white view of the world is simply wrong or impossible.

That's correct. Like I said, westerners have no understanding of what the Taiwanese people want or think. And instead of understanding, they make grand statements about what we want without our input. Again, if you look at the voting, we voted heavily in favor of status quo, which is what I want. If you look at polls, Taiwanese people consider themselves Taiwanese. It's confusing to people like you because you want it to be black and white, we are fine with shades of gray. Mostly though, I want people to stop talking for us.

So anarchy? Every time anarchy happens dictatorships follow. If the country is lucky, they'll eventually have a representative government. You can look at the history of Israeli Kibbutz to see how anarchy and communism fails. The problem with your idealism, which frankly if I could have my perfect world wouldn't look all that different, is that it's impossible. It's been tried over and over to various levels of failure.

All I'm doing is trying to explain the situation, I'm not trying to give a right or wrong to it. YOU are assuming I am.