Skip Navigation

InitialsDiceBearhttps://github.com/dicebear/dicebearhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/„Initials” (https://github.com/dicebear/dicebear) by „DiceBear”, licensed under „CC0 1.0” (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)BR
Posts
0
Comments
464
Joined
2 yr. ago

  • I'm lucky that mine isn't as severe as it could be. I'm not bedbound and I work from home, which I can still do, though on some days I need to lie down for a couple hours midday and work into the evening to make it up.

    But I can't do the things I used to enjoy like hiking, cycling, going to the gym. Even non-active stuff like chess - the brain fog affects how well I can calculate and I've lost a ton of rating after six years of steady improvement. Immune system is fucked and I keep getting skin infections. Can't digest food very well, can't even chew very well due to inflammation in my jaw. Can't sleep more than 4-5 hours a night. The nervous system impacts everything.

    So basically it still lets me do my job and pay my mortgage but everything I did for fun is out of reach. Not a great quality of life.

  • All the people who founded it left. Nate Silver, who originally built the company, doesn't trust the new leadership, their model, or their treatment of polls.

    They're credible for simply reporting poll results but the election model seems to have some issues.

  • This is naive thinking. They tried to overturn the result in 2020 and they've had four years to hone their strategy. Moderates who defended the election process last round have been pushed out of office. States with GOP legislatures in particular could refuse to certify totals and instead send electors of their own choosing.

    It's not as simple as who gets more votes. The process requires that officials at multiple levels of government work in good faith, and there are a lot of bad faith actors taking office. Look at who won the Maricopa County primaries yesterday. That's the modern GOP.

  • Trump is still ahead in the polls. It's not just a matter of not getting complacent - this is still a race that will take serious work for Democrats to win. We all need to vote, volunteer if possible, and work to secure a Kamala victory.

  • There are enough swing voters to deliver a Democratic victory in 2012, Republican in 2016, Democratic in 2020, and either way in 2024.

    I agree with you that it seems ridiculous. The policies and personalities are completely different so it's difficult to imagine people who can't decide between the two.

    But I think you have a lot of people who are disaffected with politics in general, who think all politicians are the same, who probably don't pay too much attention to the news, who make up this bloc. And they probably vote in a reactive way, if at all - a referendum on a bad economy or whatever news breaks through to them. Maybe it's only 10% of voters, but that's the margin that decides all these elections. And they are potentially swayed by a constant drumbeat of negative Trump news, especially that he now no longer faces an opponent with their own significant visible flaws.

  • The base isn't going to be put off by it, but that's not who they're worried about. Every election is divided by independent swing voters and yes, some of them do care.

    The 33% that constitutes Trump's base probably likes him more after every racist outburst, but they alone don't win national elections.

  • The article notes it later on but this is for a period before SOTE launched. It makes perfect sense that they generate less profit in between the year Elden Ring launched and the year the expansion launched. Fires of Rubicon came out during this time period but that's a more niche game compared to their flagship series.

  • 538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart.

    But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin.

    I'm hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote.

  • A bunch of the ones I was missing were pot carriers near the starting area, haha. I got all the hard ones and missed the gimmes.

    A couple of the last ones would be extremely challenging to find without a guide, though not impossible.

  • I did the same, had +20 blessing but otherwise no summons or ashes. Still took four hours of grinding before I got the run. I did use a black steel shield +4 which negates holy damage, though you can still run out of stamina. Tough fight.

  • This patch probably makes that fight slightly easier since some of the changes are buffs to that fight's summons as well as standard ashes and revered ash bonuses.

    If you are 1v1ing him then you may not get any relief, haha.