2y ago

US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army

www.bloomberg.com

China missiles filled with water, not fuel: US intelligence
Xi seeking to root out corruption, prepare military for combat

US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that widespread corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war, according to people familiar with the assessments.

The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing intelligence.

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China missiles filled with water, not fuel: US intelligence
oops
US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case
So this is a good news story.
- Mmm.
  Hopefully.
  Unless you think war is inevitable.
  The current Chinese doctrine in a theoretical conflict with America relies heavily on saturation of missile defenses to take out things like carrier groups.
  If they didn't know they'd have a 10% failure rate or whatever it could have completely invalidated their tactics.
  But it you accept both that war is inevitable and that China will be the aggressor it would have been better for them not to discover this and thus be unprepared for the conflict, like we see with Russia and Ukraine.
  
  War isn't inevitable. Back in the cold war it was averted multiple times, and the USSR had a much more closed economy than China's. China going to war with NATO would lose them all their largest trading partners.
  
  Unless you think war is inevitable.
  I don't think it's inevitable, but I do hope that one day West Taiwan will be liberated.
  
  If China ever wants to be able to take Taiwan, it'll have to do so within the next few years. Due to a large number of factors, like economy weakening due to over ballooning, an upcoming extreme population decline (they have a serious problem on their hands there alone) and more, they find themselves in the best position to grab and conquer Taiwan now, or never. I do expect the next 4 years in this world to be shit, no matter what US president we get, just a matter of "really shit" or "holy fucking hell its the end times" shit.
  
  While having China's rockets fail at a high rate during an invasion would be good. They may be weaker by the time they rebuild their arsenal and an invasion is not possible. They are going to have to check a huge amount of rockets then start rebuilding. A lot can change in 2 years.
- I mean...the US Navy is roughly 40 times more capable than the Chinese navy just looking at aircraft carriers compared, nevermind the carrier group components or the planes. A US super carrier is so much more capable than the 2 Chinese carriers combined.
  
  China's ship building capacity is greater than the US. They may be able to overwhelm the US Navy in an extended conflict.
  That said, China is looking at a demographic cliff from the One Child Policy. Too many old people and not enough young ones to take care of them. If they're going to start a war, it has to be in the next few years or not at all. It's possible the window is already closed.
  
  And there's what, 7 to 10 of em?
- Time to get the South China sea under control. What are they gonna do? Start a water balloon fight?
- Except for the families of those related to this flop.
  
  That's an occupational risk when working for a corrupt one-party state.
China missiles filled with water, not fuel: US intelligence
Somebody fucked up the actual story somewhere along the way. A normal problem with liquid ICBMs like a DF5 is tiny amounts of water contamination in propellant. N2O4 is meant to sit in a missile for months but if even just the humidity in the air gets in to it, it forms nitric acid and corrodes the missile. That happened to US ICBMs like the Titan II constantly and the US never reliably stopped it, they just switched to solid fuel. If contractors cut corners building a silo water contamination causing corrosion is the first thing that would go wrong. Meth heads siphoning rocket fuel and trying to replace it with water and dying instantly in a massive explosion didn't happen.
- I hate to be that guy, but source?
  All the info I could find is derived from the Bloomburg article, which clearly says "water instead of fuel", and also silo doors that don't fully open lmao
  
  The accusations as I understand it is the fuel never got to the missile, it was sold black market elsewhere and someone filled the missile with water instead because you can't really check it given how it reacts with moisture in the air.
  
  No source it's just pretty much physically impossible. Even if there's no safety system setting off alarms N2O4/UDMH is denser than water, you can't fit enough water in the rocket to make it weigh like it's full of fuel, it's going to read like 20% is missing either way. And if nobody cares about that why are you putting anything in it at all?
  Water contamination and the 100 ton armored door not working are both super likely results of generals embezzling money, water instead of fuel is dumb and Bloomberg has a track record of fucking up this kind of thing
- Bro but like chinese walter white???? /wwww
Putin has the same problem. Perhaps it made Xi look for it.
- 100%
A significant delay could be the ballgame in Taiwan for the foreseeable future.
The B-21 will be in service in 2027 and sixth generation fighters a few years later. The Chinese will need a very long time to try to come up with countermeasures for the new tech.
- Given how defensive warfare is showing its strength in Ukraine, without air superiority, I doubt China could take the island right now. And I think the US and all of its allies would make life hell for the Chinese. Just submarine warfare would cut Chinese oil off like it did to the Japanese in WWII.
  
  True, and unlike Russia China is not even remotely self-sufficient. Fuel, food, etc. all imported on a massive scale.
Aww. China invading Taiwan with Super Soakers.
- Water guns and nerfs are now mostly made in China after all.
So… Chinese Watergate?
- Chinese Waterballoon
  
  Could be why they used weather ballons to spy on other nations, instead of spy planes. 🤣
https://archive.is/ezs2C
Obscure dictatorship armies are corrupt as fuck and barely functioning? I would not believe it if I didn't hear it with my own eyes.
What even uses a liquid fuel in the Chinese arsenal? The newer Dongfengs are all solid fuel. US intelligence once again demonstrates their impeccable research ability.
I guess the DF-4, but it was mostly decommissioned ages ago. There's like one or two hanging around for historical reasons.
- A 1 minute google search would have revealed that the main ICBM used by the PLA uses a liquid fuel rocket. It is being replaced with the DF-41, but it is very likely DF-5 is the missile being referenced by the article.
  The DF-5s are used in two main operational modes: erecting a mobile launch platform commonly on rails (missiles stored inside mountain tunnels) or stored vertically and ready to launch in silos.
  China has maintained a sort of minimalistic nuclear deterrent for years - I think very responsibly - where a handful of quick to launch and well hidden nuclear weapons ensure other powers don't get too uppity. The pre-fueled missiles in silos therefore represent an essential retaliatory strike component for China's nuclear deterrent.
  Although embarrassing, this sort of corruption can cause catastrophic consequences. I would be happy that rotten apples like this are rooted out.
  
  I disagree. ICBMs serve no purpose in a war unless you've already lost. Nuclear strike capability is suicidal and China's no-first-use policy makes ICBMs completely irrelevant to the discussion of China's war capability (particularly w.r.t. Taiwan and the SCS).
  You don't launch nuclear weapons unless you've lost and you want the other side to lose, too.
  
  I don't think there is such a thing as a responsible number of nuclear weapons.

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