Why didn't SBF flee?
I was wondering why SBF seemingly behaved like an innocent man. Giving interviews, talking to podcasters, remaining at his residence.
Why didn't he make a run for it?
If he did take all those billions as was claimed, why didn't he move to a country that doesn't extradite or just move off the grid for a couple years?
Was he burnt out? complacent? drugs?
Or did he never have that money in the first place?
He believed he was untouchable due to his political contributions to both sides, but he underestimated the reach some of his investors that he stole from had themselves.
You steal from the ultra-rich, this is what happens. If you want into the club, you help them steal from joe-average.
I see, basically he was delusional...maybe it was the drugs after all...
Nope. Narcissism and Self delusion. The most powerful drug of all.
He probably didn't make a run in the beginning because he had convinced even himself that he hadn't done anything wrong, that he'd just been aggressive and sloppy. Then he probably thought that he might be accused of something, but that his money and connections would help him stay out of jail. By the time he was arrested in the Bahamas, it was probably too late. He was too high profile to just slip away.
If he'd been a bit more paranoid, he probably could be on the run today.
He had access to billions. Even if getting it all liquid would have resulted in a 90% loss, that's still hundreds of millions. With that kind of money, you can find a country where you can get a new passport under a new name, and probably get away with faking your own death.
The problem is that to do any of that, you'd have to work with other people, and there would have to be some trust involved. If he wanted to keep the money in a bank, there would have to be some mutual trust with a bank / banker. If he tried to walk around with millions in jewelry, he'd have to avoid getting mugged. If he hired private security, he'd have to avoid getting mugged by his private security. If he tried to use his money to get a passport in say Myanmar, he'd have to have some trust that they wouldn't just imprison him and beat him until he gave him the rest of his money. If he had tried to work with a lawyer who was only slightly bent, he'd have to trust that the lawyer wouldn't turn him in. If he had tried to work with a very bent lawyer, he'd have to trust that the lawyer wouldn't have him tortured until he gave up his money.
While he was definitely a criminal, he was a white-collar criminal from a very white-collar family. He probably had zero connections to underworld figures. So, risking his life going on the run might have seemed like less of a risk than risking that his money and his connections could help him avoid prison time if he didn't run.
You're buying into the story he spent years developing. SBF is a conman from a highly influential family, who used his familial connections to run what essentially was a ponzi scheme. He wasn't a particularly gifted individual, he was just manipulative and had a lot of connections in high places.
He didn't flee because he didn't think he was ever going to prison, and tbh I'm kinda surprised that was the eventual outcome. If it had been any other exchange besides crypto, he probably would have gotten away with it.
I think I get it, it was a surprise to him and everybody else that he ended up in prison.
You say he wasn't particularly gifted but he was definetly smart no? I mean him graduating from MIT is at least evidence that he is not suffering from brain-damage.
I have to admit that all i know is from the media. I did not know about his powerful family, I always assumed he was just a regular kid who just got lucky.
I definitely fell for the story developed over years.
I just cant believe the complacency and utter lack of paranoia, given the means he had, both monetarily and intellectually.
You are falling for a common pitfall, assuming that intelligence is the dominant factor in success. There is enough evidence to suggest intelligence is a thing and that it does help general ability broadly, but it is basically always dominated by other factors, be it affluence or experience. It's entirely possible for an expert in 1 field to end up being completely clueless and seeming like a dumbass when talking about anything else. There is even research to suggest people that are experts in one domain can be easier to fool into thinking they are more competent in all domains, actually making them less likely to seek external opinions and ending up worse off.
You say he wasn't particularly gifted but he was definetly smart no? I mean him graduating from MIT is at least evidence that he is not suffering from brain-damage.
I don't think he was witless, I just think he presented himself as a boy genius when in reality he was just a narcissist with ADHD. He spent a lot of time developing a persona that mixed imagery of Steve Jobs and Aaron Swartz.
But if you actually look into his actual work.... None of it's groundbreaking, especially considering all the innovative aspects of ftx were all lies built upon fraud.
No, you’re still missing it. It was a surprise to him, because his world view stated that what he had done should make the people in power overlook the laws he’d broken.
It wasn’t a surprise to most people. He made the wrong kinds of mistakes.
If Bitcoin didn't make a dip when it did then he never would have been caught, he would have been able to bounce back and no one would have ever known, but his customers all made a run at a time when Bitcoin was dipping and effecting the value of his crypto so he couldn't pay out the time. What he did isn't an uncommon scam, he basically gambled with other people's money and lost.
Jane Street doesn’t hire non-smart people, and to have passed their hiring process he has to at least have been a talented programmer.
That's not true at all...... Connections go a lot further in wall street than intellect. Even if you're an extremely talented trader, unless you're taking a lot of risk, you're still going to be doing just slightly better than average. The most important aspect of trading is convincing people to join your portfolio, so people with affluent families have a huge advantage.
Was he an employee of Jane Street?
The only thing I know about them is that they sponsor one or two of my fav math youtubers.
He did flee, albeit not to country that doesnt extradite to the US. He tried to hide in his techbro trooical get away in the Bahamas.
He didn't flee. That's where he was living. That's where the company was based.
My guess. Dud was just totally disconnected from reality. He isn't that smart and didn't understand how badly he'd fucked up.
Read "Going Infinite" which describes the rise and tall of FTX and SBF. "isn't smart" is not true, but he is definitely not "human smart", but rather "math smart".
The book tha Michael Lewis wrote and is now being heavily criticized for because he is so far off the mark and totally takes this twerp’s dick all the way down his throat and lets him finish?
We all would do well to recognize different types of intelligence.
I really have no interest in Michael Lewis. He only writes about people he likes and usually fails to analyse their actions critically.
What caused that?
Money
Why didn't he flee? To make gullible folks think he may be innocent because he is acting innocent. He stole billions of dollars from rubes, now he's on to stealing empathy from humans.
His extradition options are, to my immediate knowledge:
I am certain if he went to either, he'd get killed probably by someone holding the bag on his debt. At a rate quicker than a federal prison.
A lot of people in his position of power truly believe their own hype. I no doubt believe he thought that they would never convict him, that he'd be too intelligent for them to catch, and that he'd be able to buy his way out with his powerful connections.
Because he's a narcissist that thought he could talk his way out anything. He obviously thought wrong, but I'm willing to bet he still thinks it's everyone else that's wrong.
"why didn't he make a run for it" if you realise you will be tried, it is too late. If you try to flee somewhere without a good reason, they will hold you and arrest you.
He's not a genius, but he's also not a total idiot. He knows.
Because he’s a lazy fuck with severe adhd and he’s a fucking idiot.
Where would he go? Even countries without extradition treaties can still extradite. There’s no hiding. His options were grim either way.
it's the hair. just look at it.
I don't get it, he's got beautiful hair...
On top of the many other reasons here, there's also a pretty distinct difference between countries without a US extradition treaty and countries that won't extradite to the US. Many countries without formal treaties will still happily hand over a US citizen trying to hide in their country. It might be a different story if he had dual citizenship somewhere but anywhere he tried to flee he'd be immigrating illegally.
Justice rarely finds the wealthy for long. He was probably counting on his money for protection.
Because he’s a lazy fuck with severe adhd and he’s a fucking idiot.
The money is lost
The world isn’t really the same as when you could bunk off mysteriously with a suitcase full of Ill-gotten loot. For one thing, that suitcase better be HUGE and magical so that only you can get into it. Also the interwebs reaches everywhere. Ain’t no place to hide.
Ain’t no place to hide.
What about hiding in plain sight?
By hiding his face with his hands and insisting that “no one can see me” ?
I recommend the book Going Infinite by Michael Lewis for an answer to this question, as it perplexed me as well.
Actually, as great as Lewis writes and as acclaimed as his career is, he completely failed with SBF and fell for the con. He was so enamored with SBF he even told friends to "buy whatever Sam says" at one point. The case later releasing the slack chats contradict his book heavily and while it's common for Lewis to cast controversial subjects in a positive light (Wolf of Wall Street), this one was over the top and a bit of a disaster.
In fact, Behind the Bastards did a great 2 part podcast this month specifically on SBF and Lewis' embedding in his camp. It's fascinating.
thanks for the recommendation!
Everyone had been telling him he was the smartest guy in the room, and he thought he was. Plus BTC and crypto are still kinda in shaky legal status, and he'd made a lot of donations to politicians.
Crypto ain't cash, they can unravel the block chain and figure out the transactions. He can't just disappear with a few mil and not be followed.
If he can't just disappear with a few mil and not be followed, then how smart can he be?
SBF was arrogant as fuck, and a bunch of rich people mistook it as eccentric genius so they started praising him as a genius. He did some very stupid things and he definitely isn't a genius, but isn't an idiot either. He's smart enough to know when he's got.
No, everyone had been telling him he was the smartest guy in the room. He clearly wasn't.
That's not true of all crypto though, he could have disappeared with monero.
That's some peak crypto shilling "My Crypto is amazing for CRIME!"
By US laws, fraud is fraud, it's just a matter of which agency has jurisdiction over it based on if it's classified as security or commodity.