Trump tops Biden by 8 points in Michigan poll
Trump tops Biden by 8 points in Michigan poll
thehill.com
Trump tops Biden by 8 points in Michigan poll
62 comments
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We're fucked.
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They're not perfect, but they're not complete bullshit.
I can't explain it all in a comment, but, like most things, there are good polls and bad polls. Saying polls are bullshit is like saying car mechanics are incompetent because some of them are.
If you read up on polls and their methodology, and read more then headlines, you can start to discern good ones from bad ones.
Most people don't realize margin of error and how close elections are. There hasn't been that large of polling errors in the last several elections. 2016 was larger than normal, but still within pretty explainable ranges.
Good polls are worth paying attention to, and proclaiming they are all bullshit is just a flatly bad take. There are a lot of shit polls that are politically motivated to make candidates look good or bad, but there are good pollsters doing good work. But you have to know what to look for. Not all polls are equal.
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Are they still oversampling Republicans? Because in 2022 they predicted a Red Wave that was purple at best.
Also, I think abortion is on the ballot in like 20 states? That will help bluify the vote, too.
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ITT: poll denialism about the least popular president in modern history. The rising prevalence of poll denialism by democratic voters is the biggest indication, to me, that were in very serious trouble.
If wishes were fishes, we'd all swim in riches. Just because we are sleepwalking into fascism doesn't mean denying what's happening helps. At all. Quite the opposite.
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Good poll: Trump sucks! Biden is going to win!
Bad poll: Polls don't matter!!
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I haven't done extensive research or anything, but it does seem like the gap closes when the survey includes more people. I'm hoping this indicates a strong margin of error in Trump's favor - though I don't know why it's so consistent.
I'm also hopeful that there will be a large amount of "normal" conservatives that would say 'Trump' in a poll, but are turned off by him enough to not show up to vote.
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Is there a reason why Biden loses voters in Michigan? Can he win them back?
I guess we'll never know...
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I always thought Michigan was pretty anti-Republican, in a similar way to Illinois. But I'm pretty sure Michigan has a big problem with white rural/suburban conservatives, so my guess is they've become more emboldened and riled up recently due to the Republican radicalization, and they're more "passionate" about voting now than they were in previous elections – analogous to what happened with Democrats and blacks/latinos/liberal women in Georgia in the 2020 elections.
But that's just a hypothesis, I'm not exactly knowledgeable on Michigan... I'm from Georgia and am in the process of moving to Illinois.
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Michigan is historically republican leaning to a toss up in local elections and democratic leaning in national elections. Trump was the only republican to win a presidential election there in about 40 years or so, both senators have been democrats as well.
Michigan got fucked hard as the auto companies left the country, and it's never really recovered. Pro-nafta opinions aren't popular. Michigan also has a high Arab population, they likely won't vote Trump, but if they stay home it's bad for Biden. There's still a lot of active racist militias in Michigan, there's also heavily segregated cities.
Michigan lacks a truly large city to dictate politics at the state level, like Illinois and Chicago. There's also the occasional issue with being a border state, unpopular federal decisions get used to win votes on both sides.
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I live in Michigan and basically as soon as you go into any rural area, it's Trump Land. Complete with crazy hand painted signs calling Biden a demon and praising Trump as a god.
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How are they polling? I've never been polled before
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Generally land line phone calls.
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Which tends to skew the results in favor of Trump.
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Oh you weren't personally involved? Then it's probably fake news. Where have I heard that line of reasoning before... hmmm.
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Well, if Trump does win I’m down with storming the capital and stealing the election. There doesn’t seem to be any repercussions for doing so anyway.
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62 comments
This is why we watch polls months before the election. Biden has a FUCKTON of work to do in Michigan.
2020 - Biden - 50.62% Trump - 47.84%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Feb. 22-23 - Kaplan Strategies - Trump +10
Feb. 20-24 - Emerson College - Trump +2
Feb. 20-24 - Emerson College - Trump +3
(+2 is a head to head, Biden/Trump, +3 is a multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
Feb. 22-25 - North Star Opinion Research - 43/43 tie
March 8-12 - Quinnipiac University - Trump +3
March 8-12 - Quinnipiac University - Trump +5
(+3 is a head to head, Biden/Trump, +5 is a multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
March 13-18 - SSRS - Trump +6
(multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
March 14-18 - Emerson College - 50/50 tie
March 14-18 - Emerson College - Trump +2
(Tie is a head to head, Biden/Trump, +2 is a multi-candidate poll with Kennedy, West, and Stein)
Tracking this over time is important.
Further, if you look at the differences between head to head polling, and polling that includes 3rd party candidates, it shows you how voting 3rd party is voting for Trump.
Yes, though it's also worth noting that there seems to be a reverse effect of 2016 where Trump was underrepresented in polls from actual votes to now where he seems overrepresented compared to actual results.
I suspect for the same reason in opposite application.
In 2016 it was embarrassing to be pro-Trump, and so a lot may have said "undecided." Now, particularly in conservative areas or households, it could be outright dangerous not to claim you are for him on a phone poll.
How many households have a fanatical pro-Trumper but other members planning to secretly vote against him who would never say as such on the phone to a pollster?
I definitely think anyone rational should be fighting tooth and nail to prevent the catalyst to the fall of democracy, but the situation may not actually be as dire as it seems and people's apathy in the face of what seems an unavoidable tragedy is probably misplaced - this is very much avoidable and primary polls were off by double digits for Trump in many places.
It's not like climate change where we really are fucked. This one is likely still up in the air.
I've said for years now, nobody is "undecided", it's "I AIN'T TELLIN' YEW WHO I'AHM A-VOTIN' FER!" ;)
Shows Biden needs to do work, also shows +10 is an outlier.
+8 and +10 are outliers, but +5, +6 when it's more than Trump/Biden is definitely scary.
This is why I keep saying voting 3rd party is voting for Trump. Tie to +2/+3 Trump/Biden suddenly Trump +5/+6 when it's Trump/Biden/Kennedy/West/Stein.
West hasn't qualified in any state other than Alaska or Oregon, so he's not going to be a factor unless sonething changes, but Stein will likely be there. Looks like Kennedy has qualified in Hawaii, Arizona and Georgia.
Do you think if he stopped aiding a genocide he'd get more votes?
Do you think if trump stopped being a felon he’d get less?
I doubt it honestly. People calling for stopping the genocide are on the left, which should see trump getting elected as a worse option in everything (including Palestine) than Biden is
So it’s better to just let Trump win, even though he’s on the record saying that Israel should “finish the job”?
Yes. At the same time, he's burned a lot of voters by letting it go this long.
People who downvoted ^^ this comment are fucking stupid. If you don't believe / agree that there's a genocide happening in Gaza, you're inhuman or unthinking.
Even if he did stop it we won't forget what he's allowed to happen. Anything at this point is meaningless damage control, like their bullshit ceasefire resolution at the UN.