Zipitydew @ Zipitydew @sh.itjust.works

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2 yr. ago

The trolls do too. But for some silly reason comments calling them out get removed while their posts stay up.

Sure but Florida is different. Nearly every other state is seeing some exodus of Boomers who have the wealth to retire. Many of them head to Florida.

Florida has always had a mix of that going on. But Boomers started retiring at high rates about 10 years ago. The pace of influx of these people to Florida has dramatically aged the state. Forecast is 1/3rd of the state will be 60 or older in a couple years. That age group was under 1/4th before this latest mass migration started.

Awesome info. Thanks for the write up. Have always been curious about the economics.

They're having a blast too. It's even possible this will be the last trip both of them take to ISS.

Ronda won 57% to 42%. It was one of the biggest margins in the race in a long time. Florida keeps going further right. Because they've got an average of like 800 Boomer retirees moving in daily.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/florida-governor-2022-ron-desantis-charlie-crist-00065788

It is odd that so many people forgot about this. All "the sky is falling" posts about debt completely ignore this chart. What was weird was debt getting paid off during the pandemic. Not the rate of debt spending we're back to post pandemic.

They post what would likely fit European daytime hours.

Ah so the guy is using his position to spend GOP money and harm other GOP members.

Of course they'd give a shit when it impacts themselves.

For a long time I've joked about making communal psychedelic rituals a thing again. Probably the old raver in me. Would do the trick though.

They are and is why polling has been broken

When Obama was running Dems were 38% of registered voters. Republicans were at 34%.

Florida has changed a lot since then. The first big wave of Boomer retirements hit in 2011. They've been piling into Florida for the past decade. Republicans now sit at 40% while Dems are at 32%.

That's still accurate now. It would be a 1968 situation all over again if not for everyone agreeing to rally around Harris. Had multiple people stepped forward we'd all be arguing over that at least into September.

2% April, 8% July, 11% October is how much Biden was supposedly ahead in 2020. Then won by a bit under 8%.

Polls for New Hampshire in 2024 have been following a similar pattern. Harris being ahead 6% is slightly below Biden at this same time last election. Which isn't much to get hyped about.

This one is especially dumb. And I think tells the story people keep repeating about not trusting any of these polls. Because the news wants a horse race.

In aggregated data, as of April 2020, Biden was 2% ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Then 8% ahead by August. Then 11% ahead in October. Ended up beating Trump by 8% in the actual New Hampshire vote.

This year Biden was 2% ahead in May. Harris is supposedly 8% ahead now. That will continue to diverge and I'd bet land around 11% ahead again by October.

This is the news slow walking that Trump is still more popular than he really is to keep things interesting.

Wild levels of hopium.

North Carolina maybe. Georgia and Pennsylvania again are going to be tough but reasonable to hope for.

But Florida? Ronda won with 60% of the vote 2 years ago. Winning counties that had been traditionally blue.

Florida continues to skew older and is accelerating in average age. Mass migration of retired Boomers continues to push the state harder conservative. They're on pace for 1/3rd of the adults to be older than 65 in a couple years. It was 1/4 not that long ago.

Number of registered Republicans has recovered since the pandemic. Is now nearly 1M above Democrats.

Pete won Iowa, Bernie won New Hampshire and Nevada. Everyone (6 total candidates) was still in for South Carolina which Biden dominated. Pete and Amy dropped out at that point. But Bloomberg joined and Warren was still in. Gabbard was too but we all know was a joke candidate.

Biden was against 4 options going into Super Tuesday. Biden won 10 of the 15 primaries on Super Tuesday. Came in 2nd for the couple he didn't win. After that is when Bloomberg got chased back out, and Warren dropped out realizing she was stripping votes from Bernie.

Bernie was ahead for all of 3 weeks. And at that point only 3 states were in. What truly happened in that time is a lot of media spin. Because they had nothing much to report on and kept belaboring over almost nothing of consequence. By the time my chance landed here in Illinois it was obvious Biden had it in the bag. Bernie dropped out himself only a couple weeks after.

Bernie won a couple states that never help determine the election. Then Biden won by a lot in swing states. If Bernie won swing states it would be different. He didn't. His appeal isn't and wasn't as good in the specific places the Presidency is won.

It sucks because I picked him in both primaries. But the reality is Biden had broader appeal where it mattered. Any Dem candidate is going get 170 EC votes along the coasts. It's between the coasts where the election is won. And Biden did better in all those places.

The meh people are the ones doing this.

https://imgflip.com/i/4h2dzt