☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ @ yogthos @lemmygrad.ml

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ok yeah, added a reuters link with CNN saying it's fake

hard to tell nowadays

Ukrainian offensive is effectively over now. The end result after four months is that Russia ended up gaining more territory than Ukraine. Western weapons have been largely depleted, and Ukraine suffered significant casualties in the process.

Meanwhile, it looks like Russia has started probing all across the front to see where the weak spots are. They've had success around Avdeevka in particular. It looks like there's a cauldron shaping that could result in Avdeevka getting cut off from resupplies.

I expect that these are shaping operations that are going to be a prelude to a bigger offensive once the ground hardens in a couple of months. We probably won't see anything dramatic until then.

I'm guessing

It's getting increasingly difficult to separate The Onion from actual headlines.

Nearly 90% of young Chinese identify with Marxism

here's an archive https://archive.ph/RQkVY

I don't even see the paywalls majority of the time, highly recommend this plugin, works with Chrome and Firefox

https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome

Yeah, it's not all lost yet for sure. The left really does need to shape up fast though. I think the key reason the right is becoming so popular is precisely because they were the only ones who took an anti war position from the start. The left shat the bed by aligning with liberals.

I mean, they're not well trained to fight an actual army, but they're certainly trained well enough to cause chaos in Europe doing terrorism.

Basically the same thing, but now right in the middle of western Europe.

The flood of well trained and well armed nazis to Europe after the war is going to be a huge crisis for the west in the near future. They will feel betrayed by the west, and they've already been building networks with local nazis throughout the war. I imagine a lot of the weapons that have been dumped in Ukraine are now in the hands of nazi terror cells all across Europe.

Entirely likely unfortunately.

The most obvious way is that productive resources are being directed towards Ukraine rather then being invested domestically. For example, if a country chooses so open a factory to produce artillery shells instead of building hospitals, then this has an impact on the standard of living. The less direct impact comes from the economic war with Russia where western economies are starting see sever economic blowback. Europe in particular has seen a huge increase in energy prices, and this translates into the economic problems we're currently seeing. The rise of BRICS and dedollarization also have an impact as this shrinks dollar based economy.

Haha I should've qualified that with under capitalism :)

The rump state is not going to be very easy for Russia to destabilize, and eventually Russia will likely end up with a puppet regime there. There's already precedent for this in Chechnya right now. Meanwhile, the buffer Russia gains comes from the fact that whatever is left of Ukraine will not be able to join NATO. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be demilitarized going forward.

I definitely expect the west to embrace fascism because that's the natural evolution of the capitalist system in a crisis. The problem the west has right now is that it allowed itself to be deindustrialized, and it's heavily dependent on the rest of the world for a lot of essentials. This problem doesn't really have an easy solution as you can't just flip a switch and create a domestic industrial economy out of the whole cloth. And as western influence continues to shrink the west will loose access to cheap commodities they've been extracting from the rest of the world. We're seeing a perfect example of this happening with Niger asserting its sovereignty and kicking France out. All of a sudden France lost access to effectively free uranium that it was robbing Niger of. Having to deal with other countries on equal terms means higher input prices for western industries, and that will only heighten the economic crisis.

In and out, a quick adventure.

the bread and butter of western economy

It's a mistake to focus on Ukraine as the core of the conflict. Geopolitical outcome of the war is far more relevant. We're seeing much of the world turning away from the west now, and BRICS is already a larger economy than the G7. The trend will be for western economic bloc to shrink and for BRICS to grow. This will cause a deep economic crisis in the west, and I'd argue we're already seeing the start of it happening. Current political system in the west is already unstable, and I don't think it will survive the crisis.

Meanwhile, Russia doesn't have to take all of Ukraine. An alternative scenario to consider is that Russia takes the territory that's largely populated by Russian speakers where there will be little support for any kind of insurgency. They will likely cut off remaining rump state of Ukraine from the sea by going through Odessa and connecting to Transnistria.

The remaining territory of Ukraine will be cut off from most of the industrial and agricultural areas, and it's populated by hardcore nationalists who will be very bitter with the west abandoning them. If the west allows western Ukraine fail then Europe will be faced with a flood of refugees feeding further into the current economic crisis. However, continuing propping western Ukraine up will become an economic black hole for the west.

I expect there's going to be a massive political upheaval in Europe, and possibly in US as well. Losing the war will be the backdrop for the economic crash that western economies are now entering. People were sold on a quick war that was supposed to secure western dominance over the world. There wasn't supposed to be any significant economic blowback in the west, but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.

The west will see itself deeply humiliated, they will have to come to terms with the fact that majority of the world does not stand with the west and actively resents western system. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow for people who've been taught all their lives that they're cream of the crop of humanity.

The big question is where the west is headed once the current system implodes. Unfortunately, all the indicators are that western countries are increasingly flirting with fascism and the right is growing rapidly. Unless the left becomes a lot better at organizing and recruiting, we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly.