V H @ vidarh @lemmy.stad.social

Beta testing Stad.social

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2 yr. ago

The general rate of withdrawal need to be lower if you have a portfolio that is very conservative. That may make sense when you're saving for you yourself and have a low risk tolerance, but it's not needed. That people feel worried enough to do that, though, is a good argument for insurance/state run pension schemes, because they an inherently pay out more since they can smooth out the risks and pay toward the maximum averaged returns.

The numbers I gave are entirely independent of social security. They presume a far below average stock market return. You're right they'll need to be a 401k millionaire, and per the numbers I gave, to achieve that will take around ~9k/year in pension investments if they intend to retire at 65. A lot obviously can not afford that, especially not early in their career, and will need to compensate accordingly later in their career to the extent they want.

But that wasn't really my point. My point is that the number of extra years - irrespective of your current pension situation - you need to work in order to maintain the same financial outlook is far lower than the number of additional years of retirement you can cover. Whether or not you're able to get to a sufficient pension level in the first place is a separate issue.

To how the stock market will fare, the big challenge there is whether or not automation will keep up or not, and frankly I think the biggest social upheaval over the next century will not be that it can't keep up, but that automation will outpace the proportional decline in the potential labour pool.

Average life expectancy in the US is ca 80, a few years above that in most of Europe, and highest in Japan, Macau, Hong Kong, at 84-85 years (this is across everyone - typically there's a 3-4 year spread between men and women, so e.g. Hong Kong is 83.2 for men and 87.9 for women)

We would not.

The extra amount you need as life expectancy increases diminishes with each extra year. E.g. let's assume (for each of calculation only; you can just scale it up linearly) that you need 10k/year on top of social security to live off in retirement. If your savings is 100k, and you only get a 5% return every year, you'll run out after about 15 years. Hence a typical lifetime annuity bought at age 65 will be around that in the US because it matches up with current US life expectancy (it won't deviate much elsewhere).

So that's for living to roughly 80. Here's how it'll play out as you approach 120:

85: ~20% more 90: ~38% more 95: ~52% more 100: ~62% more 105: ~70% more 110: ~77% more 115: ~82% more 120: ~86% more

As you can see, the curve flattens out. It flattens out because you're getting closer and closer to have sufficient money that the returns can sustain you perpetually (at a 5% return, which is pretty conservative, at $200k, you can perpetually take out $10k, and no further increase in life expectancy will change that).

Now, that of course is not in any way an insignificant increase, but if we assume 40 working years, $100k is about $850/year additional investment + compounding investment return at 5%. $186k is around $1550/year compounding.

But here's the thing, if you work 10 years longer, you grow it disproportionately much, because you delay starting to take money out, and you need less, while you get the compounding investment return of ten more years, and that drives down the yearly savings you need to make back down to around $850/year.

So an increase of 40 years of life expectancy "just" requires 10 more years of work to fully fund it assuming the same payment in during the later years. But here's the thing: Most people have far higher salaries towards the end of their careers, even inflation-adjusted, so most people would be able to fund 40 more years with far less than 10 extra years of work.

(Note that if you already were on track for your pensions to last you to 90, if you were pre-retirement now, you'd "only" need about 35% extra savings to have enough until 120, because you'd get returns from a higher base, so the extra savings or extra years of work needed over what you managed would be even lower)

These all work on averages btw. - due to differences in health, this is where we really want insurance/state pensions rather than relying on individual contributions.

This doesn't mean there aren't problems to deal with. Especially if the life expectancy grows fast enough that it "outpaces" peoples ability to adjust. But it's thankfully not quite as bad as having to add another 30 years of work.

That sounds like it'll be more than solid enough.

The most delciously evil part of INTERCAL is "COMEFROM" (though COMEFROM was proposed a number of times as a joke long before INTERCAL)

Ignoring the intentionally esoteric languages, of languages in actual use: J, K. Any descendant of APL, basically, and APL itself, though arguably APL is less obtuse than many of its descendants.

E.g, quicksort in J (EDIT: Note Lemmy seems to still garble it despite the code block; see the Wikipedia page on J for the original and other horrifying examples)

    
    quicksort=: (($:@(<#[), (=#[), $:@(>#[)) ({~ ?@#)) ^: (1<#)

  

(No, I can not explain it to you)

Reasonably so. I had to bolt down my gazebo and attach sandbags to the legs because it'd have blown away, metal frame and all, if I didn't.

Note that a couple of decent sized hooks bolted to the wall can hold a lot compared to trying to weight something down to the ground without firmly attaching it. If you need to attach it to a pole or a post, then you probably want to make sure that side is weighed down quite a bit.

The wind is also the main reason why I have the carabiner hooks so that it's reasonably easy to unhook and fold it up when it gets extra windy without having to try to untie ropes etc..

Do it. It's fun.

My advice is to start small, and look at some simple examples. E.g. I knew I wanted mine to run in a terminal, and I love Ruby, so I started with Femto which is a really tiny Ruby editor. By itself, it's pretty useless (but beautifully written), but it was remarkably quick to get to something that was "tolerable" for light editing, and then I iterated from there.

There are many options for small ones for all kinds of different values of "small" that can serve as inspiration. E.g. Linus Torvalds has his own branch of MicroEmacs (as do many others, it's a popular starting point, and the basis for e.g. Pico, mg, Vile). Antirez (of Redis fame) has Kilo, so named because it was written to be <1k lines excluding comments, and there's an "instruction booklet" on how to write one that's using Kilo to demonstrate approaches to writing one.

The first starting point, I think is deciding how general you want it to be. E.g. I early on decided I don't care at all about being able to use it as my only editor ever, and that meant I could pick and choose use-cases that were out of scope. For example, I just want to edit "human-scale" files, not multi-GB datasets or log files - I'm happy to open that in Emacs if I ever need it - and so that gave me far more flexibility in terms of data structures because I don't need it to scale beyond a few thousand lines, and that saved me a lot of effort.

In large part because at least some portion of California lawmakers knows their history well enough to be aware that all of Silicon Valley is a thing in the first place because people were able to leave and take their ideas with them and start something new.

A huge portion of the value of Silicon Valley today can still be traced back to when the "Traitorous Eight" left Shockley Semiconductor to form Fairchild in 1957, and build tech based on what they'd learnt at Shockley, with many of them then going on to leave Fairchild and found further new companies. The outcome of that among many others resulted in both Intel and AMD, and the same pattern has repeated many times.

Depends on jurisdiction. Worth checking before taking any chances. Also worth considering that an employer willing to put that in the contract may well try to fire you and/or sue you if you come up with something valuable and they decide they want it, so even when you're in the right it's often not worth working for a company like that.

If my own experience had been unique, or been contradicted by the data, you'd have a point, but it's an experience shared by almost everyone I follow, many of whom have abandoned larger followings on Twitter for the same reason, and it's an experience where the only thing in question given the data is how rapid the decline is, not whether the decline is happening.

That was my starting point, and I changed because it wasn't easier.

I switched because my Emacs config was thousands of lines of code to try to wrangle it to do what I wanted. My editor is ~3.5k lines of code and is closer to things how I want them. It's spartan, and you and most other people would hate it. That's fine - I have no interest in writing a general-purpose editor.

Writing a good general-purpose editor is immensely hard, but writing a small editor for yourself is not.

I could absolutely manage to squeeze everything I want into any open-source editor and many proprietary ones via extensions, but there's no value in that to me when I can write less code and get something that's exactly adapted to my workflow.

For starters, I use a tiling window manager, and there are no editors that are designed with that in mind. That doesn't mean they work badly with them, but that e.g. they spent a lot of code on window and tab/frame management that my window manager is already doing the way I want it, and so just by making my editor client-server (a few dozen lines of code with Ruby via DrB), I got that "for free": When I split a view in two, I use the API of my window manager to halve the size of the actual top level window and insert a new editor instance that observes the same buffer. I could retrofit that on other editors too, but doing it from scratch means the "split a view in two" code in my editor is about a dozen lines of code.

Another example is that for my novels, the syntax highlighting dynamically adapts to highlight things I've taken notes about (e.g. characters, locations). I could do that with another editor too, but having full control over the way the rendering layer works meant it was trivial to have my custom workflow control the lexing.

It's tied to carabiners / snap hooks attached to hooks mounted on my outside wall, and then tied to the frame of my gazebo on the other side. Depending on what you have to attach it to it can be very easy or a bit of a hassle. If you don't have anything to attach the other side to, you can drive down a tent pole or a post, but it needs to be pretty solid to handle the wind.

She's a fairly regular visitor, and she demands regular cuddles. Usually by pretend "falling" over right in front of me, and if I ignore it she'll do it again until I take the hint.

I actually ditched Emacs because I realised I could write a text-editor that suited me better in fewer lines than my Emacs config took up...

By fully funding them. The return from a lifetime annuity bought at 65 is just marginally higher than a reasonable expected safe return from the same investment. (A lifetime annuity pays out on the basis that the provider needs to guarantee an income until you die, so if it returns so much that it eats too much into the capital, it'll be unprofitable for the provider). At the margins, the expected remaining life years of someone at 65 in a developed country is long enough that you can't safely offer that much more without eating away too much at the capital too quickly.

My own custom text-editor, because it's written to fit into my environment exactly how I want it.

I'm mostly shocked they've not lost more and faster. I get more engagement on my ~500 follower Mastodon account than my ~50k follower twitter account these days (sure, I could paid the manchild for more exposure, and if he wasn't so insufferable and had actually made the service better, I might've considered that)