usernamesAreTricky @ usernamesAreTricky @lemmy.ml

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There is already federal law that stops funds going for abortions specifically

I've seen others online suggest that this was an intentional leak for fundraising, but I'm dubious of that for a couple of reasons

1. The leads for dems in some of these races (though certainly not all) are larger than what you'd hope to leak to show it's still competitive to drive donations. For instance, they show Hogan in Maryland down by 7 points and trending in the opposite direction. If they were intentionally leaking, they probably wouldn't have mention these races or leaked an outlier poll showing it closer
2. Why would they leak mediocre trump president numbers in this too? Trump wants to claim that he's winning and that everything is rigged against him, but leaking something showing the opposite would undercut him and draw his ire

Harris says she backs legalizing marijuana, going further than Biden

Kamala Harris tells WPR she supports eliminating the filibuster to restore abortion rights

Not to mention, NBC ran the numbers with different turnout cases. In one of those cases, a very realistic but small few percentage point changes in turnout assumptions of different demographics could make the poll swing to 49% Harris to 46% Trump

How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results

Further, two other national polls released today showed the race as Harris+3. A lot of the dooming tends to be based on single polls. Yes the polls suggest race is close, but only paying attention to anything bad/mediocre isn't helpful either

Don't doom, take action instead

Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

Note that you are repeating the same polls multiple times in that listing. 538 lists the same poll multiple times based on the different results from it (likely voters vs register voters) and head to head vs full field often giving 2 to 4 results per poll. These are not separate polls. The NYT only did one poll of PA recently, don't assume those are 4 at the same time

As an aside, some of the pollsters have gotten more partisan this cycle. That recent TIPP poll there was the most egregious where a previously reputable pollster just decided to just assume that philadelphia was going to have 1/10 of the normal turnout in their likely voter screening (look at the unusually massive difference in their likely voters vs registered voters). This is despite asking how likely they were to vote and people in philadelphia respondeded with normal numbers, not anything anywhere close to 1/10th. It wasn't a mistake either, they replied saying they were the ones who did the likely voting screen and there were no errors, but didn't really offer much of an explication of why they basically assumed philadelphia wouldn't vote

For anyone anxious about the election, we can move the needle. Beyond just voting, volunteering is a great way to easy anxiety a bit and to help have an impact

Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

Highly encourage turning that election anxiety into action

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

On the flip side, Trump was overestimated in the Republican primaries this year. Pollsters have dramatically altered their polling this year in ways that are going to be more favorable to trump this year.

For instance, about 2/3rd of polls are now using recall polling which has historically not been used by pollsters because it tend to overstate the losing party of the election and underestimate the winners. Even non-recall polls have made changes like much more heavily sampling rural voters. Not to mention that the numbers of polls from partisian republican pollsters has been increasing which skews polling averages

Could he still be underestimated with all those changes, maybe, but at the same time I wouldn't assume that's anything given

Hey to be fair in May he did ask oil executives for 1 billion dollars directly in exchange for dismantling environmental regulations. Even the oil execs thought it was kind of insanely brazen

Trump asked top oil execs for $1 billion campaign cash in exchange for environmental policy rollbacks, report says

Fox news would never be so concerned about such "details" like "hey that's obviously not a fox, what are you on about" /s

(I uploaded the wrong photo)

Fox news yet again lying through omission and blatantly forgetting the important news of foxes eating watermelons

Also should mention thay they also have many other districts and swing states on that site too

Can also find some other volunteer opportunities for in person and online stuff on https://mobilize.us

There are some instances that still run. Not exactly sure how, to be honest. The main two I know about that still work are

xcancel.com (what I linked in the body) and nitter.poast.org

If you have any interest in helping make that possible, you can help some letters to increase Alaska turnount (focused on defending the Alaska house seat for dems, so still important even if it doesn't flip for president)

https://votefwd.org/district/AK_2024_C4_CD_001

For those anxious about that possibility, we can help move the needle

Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

I linked it in the post body with a twitter mirror

Vote, get active, get involved

Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

The yes on Measure J campaign is more cash strapped compared to the mostly meat industry funded opposition. They are more of a grassroots campaign. If you have the means, they can use donations or volunteers to help out

https://www.endfactoryfarming.vote/

And the "..." wasn't even me editing the headline, that was in the original headline

It didn't say "have to" as in you are legally obligated to. It says why "it's best to" and explains why 3rd parties act as spoilers in the first past the post system and how voting for a 3rd party can lead to the exact opposite person winning than who you want

Well some of the criticism is from Republicans too