usernamesAreTricky @ usernamesAreTricky @lemmy.ml

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Polling doesn't capture turnout changes. This is the kind of thing that's largest effect, if materialized, would be boosting dem turnout

Which is also a ??? moment

1 million in just 3 days of early voting. And that's including today which is still ongoing

He is in an R+5 district in Pennsylvania (PA-10). Perry won by 7.6% in 2022. Going from lean-R to tossup is certainly something

We can make it matter by using it as a motivation for action

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

[Write letters to voters in competitive downballot races (or swing states too)(https://votefwd.org/)

Tracking higher than 2020 numbers in many states. In Georgia, this year's first day early voting turnout (_{310k) was over double the 2020 first day early voting (}135k).

Keep in mind that COVID changed voting patterns in 2020 so comparisons can be funky. Even still 2020 had higher early voting turnout (especially by mail) than we had historically seen, so being on track for higher early turnout is great to see

Early voting has historically been heavy in dem's favor and polling on voting prefering suggest that this has not changed all that much. There is a strong partisian divide in voting early vs election day

Exit polling data (asking people who they voted for) is not released until after polls close on election day

Note that polling doesn't capture turnout data rather well. It has to make assumptions about turnout for weighting

The closets metric polls have to try to guesstimate turnout is enthusiasm, which is down ~15% for trump compared to 2020. In 2020, there was a enthusiasm gap in Trump's favor. This year that's flipped

Or if we look at say a subgroup like Niki Haley primary voters (~5-10% of republicans), there's a marked drop in their support for Trump this year compared to 2020

The majority of them, 59%, said they voted for Trump in 2020. But now, only 45% plan to cast their ballots for him again in 2024, marking a 14-point difference.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293768789.html#storylink=cpy

Overall, this will probably look like small movments if it materializes, but in elections won on close margins this absolutely matters

Keep in mind it also gives people canvasing to lower-information voters something to mention

As an example, I was talking to someone undecided a bit ago who didn't follow news super closely and said education was their top issue. They looked completely taken a back when I mentioned how Trump has said he wants shut down the department of education (both from him directly and it's Project 2025)

I think there's a chance swaying a little more people than we might think - even if it's a small percentage overall that can be swayed

Look for instances at the audience reactions to his lies about January 6th at his Univision Townhall. They show visable disgust

https://xcancel.com/MeidasTouch/status/1846746612980199817

Even if it's not enough to make them vote the opposite way, it might be enough to make them not show up to vote against harris. Turnout changes in single digit percentages matters a lot

We can make it matter. Vote, get active, get involved.

Register to vote if you haven't. Deadlines are within days and passing in some states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in competitive downballot races (or swing states too)

Hey now don't tell me your suggesting the heritage foundation, who published a 900 page document of everything the Trump should do, could be trying to pull strings? I'm sure they're also just keeping lists of people trump should remove for fun, you know, and that their not publicly released part of Project 2025 with fleshed out executive orders was for the bit

The audience's showed visable disgust as he said it

https://xcancel.com/MeidasTouch/status/1846746612980199817

Her campaign has been harping on it before, so they'll probably ramp that up. For instance, they just posted this with the caption "is he ok"

https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/DBO84K5oxtJ?hl=en

Yep, that's on top of the 2 interview cancelations

There are countless lawsuits lied to try to block their voter suppression in Texas. They often do block some of it. Without control of the Texas state legislature, it's difficult to do more than action in the judicial system

The DNC is investing more heavily this cycle in Texas

The senate map is tougher for dems this cycle (more seats to defend then Republicans) so any gettable flip matters a lot

Leaked republican internal polling has the race only a point apart. Internals are usually more favorable for your own party too.

Texas has gotten more blue over the years and he only won by 2ish points against Beto. Cruz could certainly lose this time around and that is not something we can afford to ignore

She actually has had talks with joe rogans team about going on it

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-could-join-podcaster-joe-rogan-an-interview-sources-2024-10-15/

There's good odds of flipping the house back, and we've got a decent chance of keeping the senate or getting a 49-50-1 senate with a union leader Indepdent from Nebraska

The campaigns themselves do also focus on those down ballot races. We can help with those!

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in competitive downballot races (or swing states too)

Donate or volunteer for the Nebraska Indepdent Dan Osborn for senate (no dem running by intention)

Not all Fox news viewers are the regular fox news watchers that are deep into their spin. It's often turned on in random buildings and such

It doesn't have to even change someone's mind all that much to be helpful for a campaign. If it even convinces some that Harris is not quite as [insert scary term] as they previously thought, they might not feel as much need to turn up to vote against her. Tiny percentage changes in turnout matter here

People forget that under Trump, he sent in unmarked federal officers who took protesters from the street without any named justification against state and local officals wishes

Last week [July, 2020], federal officers started cracking down on crowds gathering in the city against the wishes of state and local officials, drawing widespread criticism and legal challenges.

Federal officers in unmarked vehicles appeared to forcefully seize protesters from the streets and detain them without justification. They have also fired tear gas and less-lethal munitions into crowds of demonstrators.

[...]

The role of federal troops sent to Portland is the subject of intense speculation at the moment. Numerous widely-shared videos show troops in camouflaged combat-style uniform arresting protesters, transporting them away in apparently unmarked vehicles.

[...]

They belong to a new federal force created last month in an executive order signed by President Trump which tasks them to protect historic monuments, memorials, statues, and federal facilities.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53473732