u_tamtam @ u_tamtam @programming.dev

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2 yr. ago

Dutch didn’t, not alone, far from that.

As opposed to the chinese, who are completely alone, all 1.whatever billion of them.

no need to speculate, China is not at the same level today (or we wouldn't even be having this discussion in the first place), no matter how populous. Would it help catch-up? Probably! You are the one bringing this up, not me, so…

You just fucking said it required cooperation you dumb cum juggler, now you’re saying they failed despite not cooperating?

Was this a difficult sentence to read? Should I break it down for you? Those two things can be true at the same time (which is essentially what I wrote):

• ASML (NL) EUV machines being the culmination of international cooperation (with US/TW/DE/…)
• Japanese having an expansive indigenous lithography industry and history

Today's China has neither.

You won’t shut up about how hard and difficult and borderline impossible it is and you want me to believe you’re not trying to say they won’t be able to? You’re certainly not arguing that they will.

Well, I'm sorry that a well-sourced post with actual engineering and historical facts, meant for the legitimately curious and interested people here makes you so angry. What can I say other than "you probably didn't check-out the links and are arguing in bad faith/for the sake of it" and "you are letting your emotions blur your comprehension, i.e. putting words in my mouth".

That’s not what commercially viable mean, buddy.

Commercial viability is the likelihood that a product or service will be successful in the marketplace.

Unless the CCP starts distributing indigenous chips asking nothing in exchange, which I find unlikely to say the least, those will be traded (against hard money, work, resources, …) on some form of market. I'm not really into arguing about semantics, so you do you.

If that's the point you want to make, do back it up if you want others (i.e. anyone who cares, i.e. not me) to comment on that?

Same response as https://programming.dev/comment/5908167 ; I never wrote that China cannot create it's own version, but that it will likely take some time. Reasons for this complexity are also mentioned in that post.

I get where your impression comes from, but I highly recommend watching the video about EUV's history (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmgkV83OhHA) to better weight the contribution of every (international) party.

Dutch managed it, why wouldn’t the chinese, with a centrally planned economy that can directly integrate the different disciplines, be able to?

• Dutch didn't, not alone, far from that. Have a stab at the first link I posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmgkV83OhHA
• This will also show a long list of "honorable mentions" who failed, including the Japanese attempts (which, as you should know, aren't exactly new to the game, way ahead of China and largely self-reliant in the matter, unlike China whose semiconductors industry has been centered around import of foreign tech)
• I didn't write that they "wouldn't be able to", I merely pointed the actual reasons why this is extremely hard (perhaps the hardest current Engineering feat, or why I find this whole thing fascinating), with speculations that this will take a while

for the sake of progress instead of making money?

no need to stretch it: if China wants to meet the ever growing domestic demand (either military or civil), China need fabs churning chips reliably. Simple as that.

Because every single thing must revolve around America, only one thing can be bad at a time, and if I'm not with you I must be against you.

your assertion that China won’t be able to achieve this.

Well, except I did not only NOT write that, I even wrote the exact opposite, see: https://programming.dev/comment/5899890

Also, interpreting my messages with your ideologically colored lenses doesn't imply that this thread invites political discourse. I'm sure you'll find many people here willing to vent their frustrations with you in easily ignorable threads of their own.

why do you think it will hit whatever arbitrary threshold you’re imagining?

What does that mean? What does this have to do with the above?

Lecturing me about ignorance

Fair, how about you enlighten me about the present topic, then, instead of digressing? It does look like deflection and insults doesn't make it prettier.

What it implies to stretch the DUV process into ever thinner lithography: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th4E-0VFaEA

Some background on how it was made: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/11/how-huawei-made-a-cutting-edge-chip-in-china-and-surprised-the-us/

tl;dr/dw: China managed to produce small batches of semiconductors using stockpiled american and japanese equipment before sanctions kicked-in

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/16/world/russia-ukraine-news make what you want of it, as I said, this is off-topic.

You’re trying to tell me a rapidly developing, well-resourced country will hit some arbitrary technology threshold because communism

Don't you think that you are over-reading a little? I never brought up communism nor any socio-economical ideology for that matter. Quick tip for you: try to read some about economics and China if you nurture any expectation that it is a communist state other than in name.

Hey, thanks for the constructive comment :)

[China] don’t give a shit about it being commercially viable, they give a shit about having the industrial capacity.

True, but I don't think the end-goal is to "just" achieve technical sovereignty. Answering local demand requires production at a large scale

The reason why EUV is more or less a cartel monopoly in the West is that it’s a cobbled together collection of scientific principles that work well enough that the first few companies that figured it out could make insane profits off of it

I really wouldn't put it that way, if you check my 3rd link out, you'd see that there were a few competing technologies on the table, and the topic was researched by national labs and a lot of public funding as well. Japan was also a leader and significant contributor but ultimately failed. It's not nearly as clearly cut as "bad imperialistic USA locks it down for rest of us": there is real international competition, and real international cooperation.

I can't predict where we will be at in 20 years. No matter what, we will be many generations beyond EUV. Other approaches that were deemed unfeasible before (=today) might turn practical in the future as fundamental research advances, and I suspect China will be strong in those areas, and, as you said, perhaps a leader.

Again, not a military expert, but have you been living under a rock for several years and missed this whole Ukrainian "special military operation"?

Russia's hyped Kinzhal missiles, which promised to defeat air defence systems and be manoeverable at supersonic speeds are being shot down by 80's era surface to air missiles. And I don't think anyone has been in a position to assess China's capabilities in the matter and I have no interest in discussing your beliefs.

Edit: forgot to say this really has nothing to do with advanced lithography, anyways…

And what does that have to do with advanced lithography? I'm not some military expert and I doubt you are either so why waste your time spreading your unsubstantiated beliefs?

Whatever people's estimations, we've yet to see this progress that you are talking about. It's an interesting race for sure.

Sure thing, until you realize that China isn't that big at all as the 5th largest producer of semiconductors behind Taiwan, Korea, Japan and the USA:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/semiconductor-manufacturing-by-country