toddestan @ toddestan @lemm.ee

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2 yr. ago

Sure, you could present your model and the data it is based upon and everyone could make their judgement.

You can't really falsify the claim “Clinton has a higher chance of winning”, at least the way Nate Silver models it. His model is based upon statistics, and he basically runs a bunch of simulations of the election. In more of these simulations, Clinton won, hence his claim. But we had exactly one actual election, and in the election, Trump won. Perhaps his model is just wrong, or perhaps the outcome matched one of the simulations in his model where Trump won. If we could somehow run the election hundreds of times (or observe what happened in hundreds of parallel universes) then maybe we could see if his model matched the outcome of a statistically significant number of election results. But nevertheless, Nate Silver had a model and statistics to back up his claim.

As for Michael Moore, I'm not sure exactly how he came up with his prediction, but I get the impression it was mostly a gut feeling based upon his observations of what was happening. Nevertheless, Michael Moore still could back up his statement by articulating why he was claiming that and the observations he had made.

Though one crucial difference is still the whole prediction thing. Michael Moore actually made a prediction of a Trump win. Whereas Nate Silver just stated that Clinton had a higher chance of winning, and once again that was not a prediction. So you're really comparing two different things here.

Why should the ideal temperature be right in the middle of the range?

It's no surprise that the maximum end of the range is right around the body temperature, as it's difficult for the body to keep itself cool once the environment is around or warmer than the body temperature. Sure, we can sweat, but that uses up a lot of water and people generally find that getting all sweaty to not be pleasant. Run out of water or raise the temperature too much and it gets dangerous pretty quickly.

On the other hand, if the environment is a lot cooler than the body temperature, then it is difficult for the body to keep warm. I'm sure for our distant ancestors who lived in what is now Africa, their minimum temperature was much higher, possibly putting the ideal temperature right around the middle of their range. Luckily for us, we have clothing and can put on more clothing to stay warm, which is how we can now make the minimum so low. But while we can use clothing to lower our minimum, we really don't have anything different to raise our maximum vs. our ancestors - we're both limited by how well we can cool ourselves by sweating. So for that reason it doesn't really surprise me that our ideal temperature is towards the upper end of what we consider the minimum and maximum temperatures.

Actually, it's the other way around. 100 degrees F weather is really hot. Driving 100 MPH is really fast.

In metric we have 40 degrees C weather is really hot, and driving....uhhh... (gets out a calculator)... 160 km/h is really fast.

The thing is, Nate Silver did not make a prediction about the 2016 race.

He said that Hilary had a higher chance of winning. He didn't say Hilary was going to win.

That may be how you see it, but that's not how the law works.

The pirate is looking to save money with their copyright infringement.

These AI companies are looking to make money from it.

I know what the 3/4 switch does on the back of a VCR.

I also know what a VCR is.

Your average pirate isn't looking to profit from their copyright infringement.

In a similar way, someone getting busted for downloading a movie is a civil matter, but if they get busted for selling unauthorized copies on DVD then it can become a criminal matter.

The bank closest to my house took out the ATM in the lobby. There's two ATM's in the drive thru lanes, but they frown on anyone using them that's not in a 4-wheeled vehicle. Your other option is one of the tellers like it's 1950.

As far as I'm aware, they had to stop doing that some time ago.

The primary was rigged before it even began. Typically when there's no incumbent you'll see several politicians make a run for the nomination. But 2016 was different. Hilary and the DNC went around to all of the presidential hopefuls in 2015 and basically told them to sit this one out because it's her turn. Hilary was supposed to waltz her way to the nomination uncontested because they didn't want a repeat of 2008. The only reason we got the Hilary vs. Sanders contest at all is because Sanders was an outsider so he didn't get the memo (or perhaps they didn't consider him a serious threat).

I personally find the my cognitive load with Linux is much lower now that I've switched over.

First of all, the Windows 11 UI is awful and ugly. The Windows 10 UI was never that great and only looks good as it ended up sandwiched between 8 and 11. I'd have to go to Windows 7 for something that's decent. Admittedly the polish on a lot of Linux DEs and applications can leave a lot to be desired, but I have a choice between multiple DEs and many of those DEs are highly customizable. I'd have to go back to Windows 7 for something that's better polished and works as good for me as XFCE does.

Then there's being in control of my own computer. I control when it does its updates. My computer respects my settings and preferences and doesn't randomly change or reset them. It doesn't randomly install unwanted software on it's own, or reinstall stuff I explicitly removed. It doesn't place ads in my whisker menu or on my desktop or lock screen. There's no telemetry being sent home to the mothership. With anything past Windows 8 I've never really felt like I'm in complete control and Microsoft can just do whatever the hell they want.

While there are the occasional issues as someone who is familiar with Linux it's typically not too difficult to track it down and fix it. Though there are exceptions of course. At least if I have to edit some files in /etc they tend to stay that way as opposed to having to edit the registry with regedit.exe only to have Windows randomly undo what I did with the next update. And while PulseAudio is notorious for causing all sorts of havoc, it seems like it's finally gotten to the point where it finally works and I haven't had any issues with the volume control for a while now.

As for games it obviously matters what games you like to play, but the amount of tinkering I've had to do to play any game in my Stream library beyond enabling Proton so far is zero. Which has been a very pleasant surprise and honestly I've been pretty impressed with that.

My guess is one of the upcoming major updates will either refuse to install, or will try to install and fail, if you try that route.

Something like that happened with a 2006-era laptop I have with Windows 10. It ran Windows 10 fine for several years, but finally one of the big updates decided it no longer liked some of the Vista-era drivers I was using. The update would try to install, fail, and roll back. And since Windows doesn't let you turn off or disable updates, a few days later it would try again only to fail in the exact same way.

Any new computer sold that has a copy of Windows preinstalled means Microsoft is getting a cut.

Besides there being no 1998 Aerostar, this is one of the early models. The badges on the front fenders went away after the first few model years, and the later ones have composite headlights rather than the sealed beams.

Probably the biggest threat to us would be the rogue planet kicking some largish objects out in the Oort cloud into new orbits as it passed through. Some of the orbits would go into the inner solar system and could intersect with the Earth at some point.

Ebay still shows your start date on your feedback page. Mine dates back to December 1999 and I believe that makes it my oldest still active online account.

I've been using Dvorak since the late 90's. When I type on a qwerty keyboard, it feels like my fingers have to fly all over the place to hit all the keys.

With that said, Dvorak has a few gremlins. The most annoying are the y/f keys where I have to shift my hands slightly to hit those keys. The copy/paste ctrl-c and ctrl-v keyboard shortcuts are also a lot less convenient but I just deal with it. It's also annoying having to rebind keys in pretty much every keyboard-heavy game.

I've never really thought of Colemak as a big enough improvement over Dvorak to relearn how to type on that layout, though if you're looking to switch from qwerty it may be worth considering. The Workman layout seems interesting.

I can see it. My corporate work laptop is locked down with their security and monitoring software, so I'm not using it for personal things, even if it is allowed for some limited things. And there's company resources that I can only access through the machines under their control, so I couldn't ditch it either. And using that laptop for a second job would be a big no-no.

I can see the school laptop being similar, though my experience is that they tend to not be locked down quite as hard as the corporate machine, unless you do boneheaded things with it and piss off the school's IT department.

So I can see the need for a personal computer, plus it's always nice to keep that well separated to avoid things like incidents hooked up to a projector and screen sharing.