shinjiikarus @ shinjiikarus @mylem.eu

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2 yr. ago

When mouthing this opinion back on Reddit I got swamped with downvotes and crypto apologists immediately. But in my opinion brave is shady af and I don’t see their value over Firefox and a reasonable ad blocker, maybe a pi-hole and anti tracking.

I feel like a Microsoft shill, since the fediverse (and Reddit before this) feels so much of one mind and I am not. I know consolidation is generally bad for the consumer, while competition is generally good, but is the Activision deal bad for the consumer or the industry?

ABK doesn’t have a steady output, doesn’t have reliable IPs and doesn’t produce guaranteed hits. What they have is some cash and some overvalued IP from the past (aka “assets”). Let’s look at this one by one:

We are in the “Blizzard can do no wrong”-part of the eternal Blizzard-is-trash-cycle, since Diablo 4 is generally well received at the moment. But their last two games have been Overwatch 2 and Diablo Immortal. Before that Overwatch in 2016, which - while liked by many - didn’t really catch up to other hero shooters popularity-wise (even though the IP stayed in the zeitgeist for other, unmonetarized reasons). So what is Blizzard living off of? WoW, obviously, which had that much decline due to their decisions, they needed to relaunch their old game again to retain players and WoW is still shrinking (though more slowly than before). Their last memorable IPs are the Starcraft and Warcraft RTS, which did not translate into the current landscape very well. RTS have always been niche as a consumer product, but considerably less so in the times of Age of Empires and Command & Conquer. Their biggest appeal has been in eSports where they have been leapfrogged heavily by LoL and - adding insult to injury - DotA. It looks like Diablo 4 will be a venerable hit, which is great (I personally like Diablo), but it needs to replace a lot of revenue lost from other revenue streams alone.

Activision is the CoD machine it looks to be: They drove all their original IP into the ground or simply fell out of the zeitgeist, like Tony Hawk’s, Guitar Hero, Spyro, and Crash (I know, the last two hurt, but they simply couldn’t acquire a new and younger audience like Mario, Zelda and even Sonic could). Movie adaptations, which have been most of the output Activision had in the 2000’s have fallen out of style heavily and movie adjacent IP like PlayStation’s Spider-Man aren’t developed nor published by Activision anymore. Which essentially leaves CoD. Modern Warfare 2 2022 is comparably successful again but Vanguard was such a shitshow it single handedly tanked Activision’s revenue for the 2022 fiscal year. Activision simply cannot continue to pump these things out yearly and expect a steady return each year, which is nice, don’t get me wrong, but is a problem for Activision’s bottom line.

One of the largest contributors of ABK is the dreaded King, which paradoxically struggles from all the same problems as Blizzard and Activision Even though a lot younger. They have one IP bringing in all the money, which is shrinking in player count and revenue contribution: Candy Crush. If boomers start to die en masse, or another Candy Crush is able to capture the “mindless smartphone puzzle market”, King is effectively over.

In this situation ABK makes a little bit more revenue than Take2 (their most comparable competition), with more than double Take2’s employees. While EA makes close to the same revenue, still with less employees and with more “hot irons” in the fire (love or hate EA, but they have Sims, FIFA, Madden, Apex and make decently well received single player games like Jedi and Dead Space on the side regularly, while not really being propped up by a mobile division as massive as King).

I’m not saying ABK cannot compete or is already bankrupt, but their pipeline dried up and they’d need a lot of restructuring (read: fire thousands of people), to justify their revenue and output. Additionally they’d need to diversify and get more IPs back on track or even create new ones (preposterous idea, I know!), to get back to acceptable risk levels.

Microsoft is in a comparable situation currently (let’s wait on Starfield for final judgement of Microsoft’s “situation”): They drove a lot of IP into the ground and didn’t replace it with new one, while losing a console war at the same time (I dispise Don Mattrick’s decisions as much as everyone else and I like Phil Spencer’s public persona a lot, but Phil wasn’t able to turn the tide until now, so I’m not aware that he is a better manager of Xbox’s course than Don). They are not trying to buy ABK the publisher, they are buying CoD to replace Halo specifically and they will bring in Blizzard’s IP into their group of “double A” developers like obsidian, where it fits right in (and some mobile footing doesn’t hurt nobody) and Microsoft needs to pay for Activision’s cash and “assets”, which makes this deal look so big, even though I’d argue it’s not really that big.

I don’t see this as consolidation, really. I think there are two path’s forward: either Microsoft buys Activision, gets rid of a lot of employees, which will be disliked by everybody. Then giving Blizzard the creative leeway they need to produce games for GamePass (probably with smaller budgets and shorter development time like Obsidian). And getting CoD back on track as the live service game it should have been. Or Microsoft doesn’t buy Activision and Bobby Kottick being the visionless uncreative manager he currently is, gets rid of a lot of employees, does put more pressure on Blizzard to create the next WoW (which they can’t), puts more pressure on those poor CoD-farms like Sledgehammer and Raven to produce more CoDs faster. Then the decline won’t be as visible for a few years (due to less payroll) until it becomes visible again since nothing relevant changed and Bobby sells off King for cash and after a few years the rest of Activision gets sold off one by one. I fail to see how this scenario is better than the Microsoft acquisition.

Video games aren’t essential goods and services or commodities. The consumer doesn’t profit from competition as much, if all the competition are bad and run down video game IPs. Creative works are not really substitutable. One liter of clean water from one company is the same as a liter from another. But 100 bad games you play for 1 hour each is not the same as one good game you play for 100 hours. The consumer profits, if there is a climate allowing for creative freedom and the nurturing of existing and new IP, instead. And this climate does not exist at ABK at the moment, while I see a chance it could exist at Microsoft.

Not OP, but most famous recent example: Alicia Vikander’s neck for Tomb Raider poster. Everything recent with Brad Pitt (more like “The Chin” on the poster of “Once Upon … in Hollywood”). Nobody can convince me all the actors on the Justice League (Whedon’s JL) poster to be real, these are Madame Tussaud’s figures. Ocean’s 8 had a lot of waxy posters as well. The list goes on, I noticed this trend as well.

Destiny 2’s migration from battle.net to Steam on the other hand …

I know this mantra and I agree for most utilities and consumer goods.

But Activision is barely functional anymore. We don’t tend to look ahead, but Activision’s pipeline is all dried up. They’ve driven a lot of their cash cows into the ground or fell out of the zeitgeist, like Tony Hawk’s, Crash Bandicoot (yeah, some 30- to 40-somethings may have fond memories, but the series has no pull factor anymore like Mario and even Sonic still do), Spyro (same thing) and Guitar Hero. Movie adaptations have fallen out of style, which have been most of Activision’s output in the 2000s and the movie-adjacent IPs, that are still pulling numbers like Spider-Man aren’t licensed to them anymore.

Blizzard has more or less (paradoxically more and less) the same problem: Yes, they are currently remembered for their Diablo 4 launch and lauded again as if they could never do anything wrong, but their last two games in the 2020s have been Overwatch 2 and Diablo Immortal. Before that Overwatch in 2016. There is just not a Diablo 5 in the books for the next few years. RTS have always been niche, but considerably less so in the eras of Age of Empire and Command & Conquer, when StarCraft and WarCraft have been major hits. I don’t know if a StarCraft III would bring in billions. WoW is an entirely different beast, which fails to acquire a younger audience, while comparable phenomena like Fortnite don’t really struggle with this. WoW and Classic are bankable money hoses, but they are not getting bigger.

Even King has kind of run its course: Sure you have heard of Candy Crush, but its time has passed the moment smartphones became good enough for Fortnite (again). I just don’t see school kids in 2030 playing Candy Crush 2, while I can imagine they are still playing Fortnite. The same goes for Angry Birds. King failed to adapt to the new age after smartphones moved beyond the iPod-touch-era.

ABK has 17K employees and USD 7 billion of revenue, which sounds impressive, until you look into their annual report: nearly half their revenue comes from mobile vs. consoles and PC and it is the only segment not shrinking. According to their last annual, mainly due to the contributions of Diablo Immortal next to the shrinking King-franchises. More than 75% of ABK’s revenue are in-game purchases and subscriptions, which leaves less than 25% for game sales. Additionally Vanguard is credited multiple times in the report as selling so bad it ripped a hole in Activision’s 2022 financial year.

All in all I feel like Activision is the CoD-machine first and lives off of the last people still playing WoW and - more importantly - still playing Candy Crush. With the only exception of CoD (Warzone) they have difficulties acquiring a new audience and are visibly not growing any more. A streak of badly received CoDs can tank their company.

I still remember the heydays of both Blizzard and Activision and have fond memories of a lot of their franchises, but these times are gone and an acquisition now when the times are okay (Diablo 4, CoD MW2 selling much better than Vanguard) is much more sensible, than a sell off in a few years, when Candy Crush dries up and the then-current CoD sucks.

But someone already got promoted for that project, so why keep it around?

I play only one game from Acti-Blizz regularly which is CoD, since most of my friends play in religiously (time for new friends?). And it is treated so badly by Activision, I hope MS fixes this. I know all the highbrow arguments against consolidation. But I don’t care for Diablo or WoW (sorry) and the one game I play can only win from MS acquisition (impossible to treat it any worse). So I personally want this to go through already.

I created a bot account for this, so all green on that front, will experiment with it, thanks!

I wouldn’t get my hopes up, after his stint at McLaren

Yeah, I let it run by night and saw what I did today. You are totally right, I will probably need to clean up a few things.

Not OP, but I’m using this one: lemmony on GitHub

EDIT: deleted link, I feel like I made a mistake, see below.

If you know the basics of AWS/Azure/Cloudhosting (spin up VM, create users, login via ssh, register URL, etc.): really low (1-3) with the ansible recipe. With docker not much higher if you know the basics about docker that is.

If cloudhosting is not your forte, but are reasonably skilled in basic linux navigation, configuration, and upkeep use a Hoster that is doing a lot for you like DigitalOcean and read their tutorials. Since you still don’t need to configure a lot the challenge rises to a 4-5 maybe.

If you have never heard of hosting nor Linux it still isn’t the most difficult project to start learning to do these things. Setting up rises to a 6 or something. But keeping a Linux server running over an extended period of time is much harder than setting one up. Maintenance is difficult compared to a MacBook or something, so be prepared to read up on backup and restore docker containers and volumes and how to keep your instance reasonably updated without breaking your server. This would still not rise the difficulty above a 7.

Small disclaimer: In the past I have used alts and burners on Reddit all the time. I have the best intentions to keep my instance up to date and running smoothly, but if something catastrophic would happen, due to me meddling with stuff, I’d shut it down and start from scratch. I’m not clinging for my comments I wrote drunk at 03:00 AM.

Yeah, about that …

With the recent bribery scandal, EU officials seem to come really cheap.

Host your own instance. When there is downtime it is your fault.

I partially agree for the GPU-side of things. But while there have been iPads without active cooling for over a decade now, there has never been a competitive, high performance laptop like the current MacBook Air build on x86. I know you are right theoretically and maybe it is a solvable challenge and the priorities were just different, but whatever ARM does, it seems to run cooler than x86. Even if it is only bigLITTLE or some other shortcut.

Technically you are right when saying:

and software can be compiled for anything.

But in practice software is compiled from source for the environment it will run on and Valve does seldomly have access to the source code of third parties. They generally have pre-compiled .exes and the accompanying files. If the developer chooses to recompile for different architectures, then valve will probably get a new compiled binary. But what about defunct developers or publishers who don’t want to invest any more development time in old software? Additionally: No, software as complex as games cannot always be compiled for anything without throwing ungodly amounts of errors. In these cases additional development would be needed, even if Valve had access to the source code and the rights to use or recompile it, which they probably don’t have for proprietary third-party software.

This is specifically a problem for valve’s immense back catalog, brand new games will probably release as a compatible binary.

And realistically Microsoft has a very good moment coming up in the next few years to effectively kill Steam: Valve only delivers pre-compiled files and does not have access to source code. Therefore Valve is not only stuck with a “Windows-like environment”, they are also shackled to x86. With Apple’s M-processors reigning supreme in the laptop space with insane values for performance-to-powerdraw (and in turn heat radiation and cooling requirements), the days of x86-by-default laptops are probably numbered and more manufacturers may want to switch to ARM, to avoid unfavorable comparisons to MacBooks. With Windows for ARM Microsoft can finally kill of all traces of Win32 in WinRT, as they tried for years and force everyone to use UWP-apps from the store exclusively on ARM. Apple does leave apps behind, when updating their operating systems on a regular basis, a similar move by Microsoft wouldn’t look totally unreasonable. The switch could even happen gradually, like Apple’s Rosetta translation layer, which runs x86 apps on arm great right now, but I don’t think it will be maintained forever and support for x86 apps on macOS will end one day. Microsoft could do the same for Windows for ARM. If this happens Valve will probably have the opportunity to install games as UWP-apps, but their back catalog of Win32 .exes becomes effectively worthless. But if Win32 .exes run great through some translation layer on linux, valve can continue to sell and support their back catalog on current hardware.

Facebook does get to decide how they store and encrypt their data. Apple and Signal have received court orders in the past, they did comply with, but there was just nothing than meta data zu turn over.

This is literally 1984’s double thinking: the people accusing other people of being woke and defining themselves as red-pilled (woken up to a reality) are in turn the most ignorant. They are accusing their enemy of having reached a state of mind they themselves claim to have reached, while they actually did not. Totally paradoxical.