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2 yr. ago

  • I mean I think that if Israel allows food, water, and gas to enter Gaza through humanitarian corridors, Hamas isn't gonna attack the convoys. They disregard the consequences for Palestinian civilians sometimes but they also need to keep their recruiting up, and attacking food convoys would make that impossible.

    They might steal some stuff I guess, but it wouldn't harm anyone, since the most that could happen is Hamas gets to fuel a car that gets blown up by an Israeli airstrike as soon as they try to do anything.

  • Are they claiming the opposite direction? The graphic is REALLY confusing with the blue line having directionality but the red cone not.

    Yeah they are, I agree it isn't the clearest. But that's what the messages later in the thread say.

    I know that there are a lot of discrepancies, but I really don't trust governments, so I don't think its reasonable to trust them unless they provide genuine evidence, not just "bro trust me". We'll have to wait for Israel and Hamas/PIJ/etc. to let independent investigators go inspect the hospital, and yeah idk if that's ever gonna happen. Hamas lied about the death count and the missile fragment, Israel lied (tweeted that they did it then deleted it, posted fake videos, maybe faked phone call). But the evidence available to the public points towards Israel, albeit circumstantially, so I think it's reasonable to say I think Israel probably did it.

    Not that any of this matters at the end of the day, more and more palestinian kids are being vaporized by JDAMs every day and nothing we can do changes that.

  • make nations hesitant to send fuel which could end up in the hands of Hamas and other militant groups that use fuel for their rockets and combat.

    Does hamas have diesel powered rockets??? Like i guess you can power motorcycles but I was under the impression that hamas used sugar rocket motors or something similar, cause like how are they gonna use liquid rocket engines.

    I know that 1000L lasts for like a couple hours at best so the IDF has to get their story straight, where are they getting the 8 days figure.

  • My understanding is that the “Israel warned them to leave” is misleading. Isreal has been “warning” EVERYONE to leave and repeatedly threatening hospitals because… it would be really bad PR if they blew up (another) hospital.

    WHO says they've been ordering every hospital in north gaza to evacuate, and they word it like they're specifically sending this message to the hospitals. https://www.who.int/news/item/14-10-2023-evacuation-orders-by-israel-to-hospitals-in-northern-gaza-are-a-death-sentence-for-the-sick-and-injured

    EDIT: disregard the above i misread what you said. Yeah israel is warning everywhere to leave and then bombing everywhere. Regardless, they already hit this hospital, so its reasonable to assume they would hit it again.

    They basically are building this claim on the claimed direction being on the outer edge of the projection from their models?

    No they're saying the projectile came from approximately the opposite direction as Israel claimed. The red on the compass is the incoming direction.

    Which gets to the point that not all OSINT is made equally.

    I would trust this org though, they've presented findings in front of the UN, they've received funding from the EU, they seem very legit.

  • Ah i see, that could be why they walked it back then. Assuming they did steal it, how much diesel was the UNRWA facility storing? I heard on an interveiw with CNN an IDF person said they had 1000L of diesel, which isn't gonna power a hospital (or anything else for that matter) for very long at all.

  • They have yet to formally come down on one side or another, their initial findings are consistent with it not being Israeli JDAMs and did not dispute claims that the attack “came from within Gaza”

    Yeah it probably wasn't a JDAM, those seem waaay too powerful. Here's a source associated with the University of London. They also haven't made a definite conclusion but they said it came from Israel and also the crater lined up with artillery. You can read about their findings here. https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1715422493274427414

    Do you have a solid resource regarding the dialect claims? Would be curious in reading more.

    Other than Al-Jazeera no, and I agree that it isn't the best source. I know an international student from my uni that agrees but again that isn't a solid source, just a dude.

    As opposed to multiple governments (not just the US slobbering all over that circumcised winky) increasingly acknowledging that it appears to not be the IDF and news outlets retracting their claims.

    I mean idk, there hasn't been proof provided (a clip from a phone call that is disputed is pretty much it), so I don't think its reasonable for anybody to make a definitive conclusion yet. I do think it is good that news places are retracting their claims, because again there isn't enough info.

    Ignoring all of the IDF/USA and Hamas/PIJ claims, all I've seen is: Crater and doppler analysis shows it came from Israel (direction wise), and the crater shows the same. The crater lines up with artillery or a rocket, but not a JDAM. Hamas rockets have misfired before, Israel warned the hospital to evacuate and also hit the same hospital with a rocket a few days earlier. Someone (hamas or pij) was launching rockets near the hospital around that time, but we can't see any rockets turning around in the air and going northeast.

  • People said the dialect is off in the audio, and it sounds staged.

    I don't think we're in conspiracy theory territory, there's evidence against both sides and both sides have lied. We don't know wtf happened.

  • Reports (Doppler sound analysis and crater analysis) show that it came from the direction of Israel. There isn't any video of a rocket turning around so idk how it could have been a pij rocket.

    Both sides are doing a lot of lying tho, we need an independent investigation on the ground there to really figure out what happened, but Israel opposed that.

  • fuck slave holders" "Your failure to condemn nat turner undermines the value of your opinion"

    Yeah what Hamas did was awful and horrific, I agree. But it's not fair to expect everyone to always go around condemning them in discussions of Israeli war crimes.

  • All parts of Palestine are oppressed and see negotiations as futile because Israel does not negotiate in good faith. When compromising means giving up the right to return to the land you were kicked out of, can you really blame them for not wanting to compromise?

    On top of this, if they're no longer oppressed, people no longer feel the need to turn to Hamas and other terrorist organizations.

    Saying you support Israel for that reason is like saying you support apartheid in south Africa or colonial algeria because if you don't support them the people in power will be ethnically cleansed.