mwguy @ mwguy @infosec.pub

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892

Joined

2 yr. ago

The supermajority of Americans take the standard deduction. You have to understand math to take the other routes. So removing those exemptions was not a negative to the majority of lower and middle class Americans.

It may have delayed the checks, but the checks stopped under Biden. And that's what people remember.

They were paying the credit out early during COVID, not simply including it in your taxes. To the average person it looks like more moola.

I know that, but most people don't care (or even worse agree with it). Trans issues are really only popular online; similar to homosexual issues in the 90s/00s.

Stop vs. Pause is a distinction without substance when 30% of the population is illiterate, and over 50% can't read or write at a 6th grade level or above.

Like I get it, I get what you're saying and it's technically correct. But to the rube who's going to be voting (or at least 30% who will), they just know that under Trump their student loans stopped; and then Biden restarted them.

What? Did you read it? It shows generic R polling vs. Biden winning big but Trump v. Biden polling low. That indicates that the majority of Americans would be open to a Republican Presidency, just not a Trump presidency. They make the case with polling data.

"On track to win a historical landslide"? Not at all. Zero evidence for that.

The article doesn't claim that. It claims that a generic Republican would be on track to win a historical landslide. But not Trump because of his unfavorability.

Trumps tax policies benefits the majority of Americans who take a standard deduction. He made sure his name was on the COVID checks and the Child Tax credit checks. He was the President that stopped student loan payments.

None of these are historically GOP policies but they did help the average person. Trump is pretty good at making sure people know that he's helping them in some way.

You don't have to, but you should. Lenin and Mao practically worshiped Marx and they both attempted to implement his system faithfully to the spec he advocated for. And I know that viewpoint is somewhat controversial in non-Leninist/Maoist circles but I think it's true.

What's more I think the historical records of economic collectivism outside of Socialism and political Authoritarianism outside of Socialism are numerous and expensive enough to justify an opposition to Communism as a system.

I think the main realization that made me nominally support Capitalism is it's performance in a "degraded" state. You can have the absolute worst scenarios (think Pinoche Chile) and Capitalism provides constant incentive to improve things and doesn't seize up in the meantime. It continues to function even in the face of severe inefficiencies.

Oh absolutely. Israel's popularity has taken a hit in the US (Down to 58%, source but the Palestinian Authority's support is down to 18% (same source).

And when you look at specifically questions around Israel & Hamas' handling and justification for conflict it's no-contest (source. Nobody thinks Hamas' actions were justifiable. That pew poll is pretty nuanced and lays it out pretty well. Most of Palestinians support is primarily focused on the human cost of the war; which the US is seen to be mitigating with it's air drops and the port we're building.

It's not really surprising either. The older you are the more you've experienced Hamas/PA tactics and PR and the less susceptible you are to it. And Hamas is getting fairly good coverage here. There's rarely a news article pointing out that US citizens are still being held hostage, for example.

Gaza isn't large. You could legitimately destroy 90% of standing structures with 10-20k tomahawk-esque missiles. You could like do the same thing with 5-10x the number of artillery shells.

Because it's wildly unpopular here. The attacks on 10/7 have convinced more people who would normally be supporters if Gaza/Hamas to not be. And the persistent polling that shows supermajority support amongst Palestinians, plus the continued ransom (and likely perpetual rape) of hostages, combine with the consistent pledge of "we love it and we'll do it again", and the fact that Americans are still being held hostage; Palestinians should be glad the US hasn't entered the conflict ourselves.

Only time will tell, but I remember when the same sort of claims were made about him calling the 2016 race a toss up. Although it does look like I have some links to read.

It's odd to me that the reasoning given here and in the article for this problem for the Democrats is that they aren't acting Republican enough and they are too leftist.

For the most part the average Black voter doesn't identify as Liberal. And that makes sense when you think about it. The median Black voter is a rural or suburban 50+ year old who left the Republican Party because they endorsed the Southern Strategy, not because of conservative policy support. So being "more leftist" isn't really going to win more of the black vote. They're already winning the black vote that cares about "leftist" policies.

Also I'm sorry I can't leave it, but are you saying that the BLM "cohort" prefer trump in there? I'm not going to say that anyone is enthusiastic about Biden, but Trump encouraged beat downs across the country and threatened to march the military on these folks.

Added a highlight for the important part. The BLM cohort is not likely to vote for Trump this election. But they're also not likely to be energized to vote for Biden. And history shows us that unenthusiastic support leads to low turnout. And part of why they're so unenthusiastic is that the Dems ran the "Anti-BLM" ticket with Biden/Harris.

Another classic blunder by her and her campaign.

But on the polls specifically, when polling showed her even with Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan and he was travelling around those states like a madman campaigning. She was snoozing it up with rich donors in California and not campaigning.

Many student loans have been forgiven. He can't do forgiveness as broadly as he'd like, the GOP is fighting him on that, but he continues to fight for it and is getting more. My own mother is in her 60s and has another 10+ years on her student loan - but I am hopeful his student loan forgiveness will reach her - she has applied and right now it is just a waiting game (information over the past year has been very confusing regarding what to do and when).

Biden negotiated away his ability to suspend student loan payments to get a temporary budget passed. He didn't have to do that. He could have kept payments suspended until the forgiveness hit. He chose not to prioritize it.

This was Clinton's strategy when she lost to Trump.

That's a fair point and it should be taken into account. But at the same time, this is Nate Silver. He's essentially the pre-eminent expert on polling, polling errors, and best practices in that regard. And what's more; when you imagine the different potential political factions amongst the African American community (a practice Dems try not to do); it's not hard to see why 2016 to today could have soured them significantly. Some examples from my family, friends, and extended family:

• As much as Republicans aren't great on "black issues" under Trump Black Labor saw unprecedented gains in employment and income (until COVID hit). And a cohort of black voters are economic voters first.
• The "vaccine mandate" talk from the left didn't go over well in Southern Communities where the oldest (like my grandparents) remember. And Oftentimes knew people that were part of things like Tuskegee (which was also one of many experiments like this. It's just that the exceptional journalistic work and integrity of several academics and journalists brought this one instance to light).
• Student Loan debt affects people from lower and middle-class families a lot. The promise and almost delivery of student loan relief and then the total rug pull of it and sellout of the Biden Administration towards it soured lots of people.
• It's not like Africans don't know what Alzheimer's is. And Biden's refusal to even address the concerns impact black voters as much as they do whites.
• For the BLM cohort; running the guy who designed and championed the three strikes policy that has put so many blacks in jail for life unnecessarily and then running a prosecutor who knowingly tried to keep innocent black people in jail to maintain appearances doesn't sit right. Especially when the other guy made it a habit to pardon wrongly or likely wrongly convicted men and women of color and did so at an exceptional clip.
• Inflation is super high and FED interest rates are 59 times higher than they were when Biden was elected. For "low information" voters that's just Biden's fault. But even for "high information" voters they realize that Trump was willing to bully the FED to keep those numbers down. "Stagflation" killed Carter it can kill Biden too.

It's really not at all surprising that the current Dem ticket isn't going to win black voters at 90% clips.

Numerous polling organizations.

They do opinion polling in Palestine.

according to who lmao

It's called proof of life. It's a common thing in hostage taking; because dead hostage aren't worth as much as live ones.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-790201

From earlier today.