World’s reserve currency. When it inevitably switches to the yuan
That's neither inevitable nor likely at this point. China's capital controls, ongoing devaluation of its currency and demonstrated willingness to prioritize the state over investors –at least some of which are positive things I wish we had– make Chinese assets in general and the renminbi in particular not investible to the degree necessary to achieve reserve status. The euro has better chances for now, especially if European debt is unified and becomes more liquid.
The expression “world economic anchor” is meant literally and factually: the United States are the world's strongest consumer market and therefore drive demand and economic activity like no other, and, more importantly, the US dollar and Treasuries serve as a reserve currency and asset, respectively, for both central banks and private investors. This arrangement is unfair, in its own macroeconomic ways that have nothing to do with exceptionalism, manifest destiny or cultural superiority, to both the rest of the world, who end up funding the United States, and common US denizens, who suffer from inflated assets.
I think this is unironically what they are going for everywhere: delegating regulation to industry, as is the case to some extent in aviation. If they get their way, they won't need approval from the NHTSA or any other agency, because they will self-approve and likely even shape regulation themselves.
Not to speak of options. With how high volatility got, writing puts must have made bank, and, despite that high volatility, buying calls must have too.
On the one hand, scurvy is not a concern, because it is very unlikely to develop it, even with a bad diet, as far as I know. On the other hand, it might not be possible, economically viable or environmentally sound to add vitamin C to water in the way fluoridation is; I don't know enough to judge here.
On the one hand, I share your doubt, which is justified in the face of all the deceit and mismanagement that Merz in particular and the CDU and CSU in general engage in and their disdain for the public good. On the other hand, the fact that the Sovereign Tech Fund / Agency survived the German budget crisis gives me some hope that it will at least stay.
This is due to a few people in power, not because of tsunamis etc. So this can switch over in just a day.
In my view, the damage is very real and businesses will keep suffering even if Trump winds down his tariff ambitions, because the uncertainty and unpredictability hinder investment decisions. For example, if you managed an aluminium business like Alcoa, would you put up the cash to set up new smelters in the US despite melting stock prices, high borrowing costs and the possibility that the tariffs shielding those US smelters from foreign producers are reduced or even scrapped altogether without warning? Many businesses are “damned if they do, damned if they don't”.
I'm sure there are smart plays in this market, but I'm also convinced that we've entered a bear phase.
This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!
Donald Trump did indeed write at least the first three sentences back in 2018. I couldn't find a source for the rest of the quote, but (a) I wouldn't put it past that man to utter such nonsense and (b) it's only fair we indulge in some stretching of the truth, given the extent to which he and his lackeys disregard it.
I searched for German articles about this, but found none. However, the three parties expected to form the next government –the SPD, the CDU and its Bavarian sibling, the CSU– are considering to weaponize migration background against “sponsors of terror, antisemites and extremists”, which could be construed to include some peaceful critics of the Israeli government and military and their actions and plans.
Interesting to note that since 2022, he lost under 1% of his population to the war... Meat attacks could go on for years on end and it would barely move him.
If that "1% of his population" refers to the general population, I would note that the total includes many people who could never fight, such as:
all those involved, whether directly or indirectly, in the development and production of military hardware,
all those involved, whether directly or indirectly, in the extraction and trade of natural resources, without which the Russian economy would collapse, and
all those physically unable to fight, such as children, the elderly and disabled people, and all those who care for them in one way or another.
As much as Putin's tyranny may yet squeeze out of the general population, 1% in three years is already devastating, in my view.
As good as that would be and as much as I desire it, my impression is that too many of them are trapped in a disinformation bubble to realize what and who is actually causing their problems. Some might, like the former Republican who shot at Trump and the veteran who blew up a Cybertruck, if I understood their motivation correctly, but I doubt such incidents will ever reach such a scale that Republicans reverse their entrenched stance on gun ownership.
Trudeau did adopt some of Trump's lingo when addressing him –by his forename, as you point out–, using "big" several times and referring to some treaty they negotiated as a "deal". He also slowed down, as if talking to someone with impaired understanding. Finally, Trudeau delivered this gem:
Now, it's not in my habit to agree with the Wall Street Journal, but Donald, they point out that, even though you're a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do.
That's neither inevitable nor likely at this point. China's capital controls, ongoing devaluation of its currency and demonstrated willingness to prioritize the state over investors –at least some of which are positive things I wish we had– make Chinese assets in general and the renminbi in particular not investible to the degree necessary to achieve reserve status. The euro has better chances for now, especially if European debt is unified and becomes more liquid.