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auraithx @ auraithx @lemmy.dbzer0.com
Posts
2
Comments
367
Joined
6 mo. ago

Trump tells Walmart to 'eat the tariffs' after retailer warned it will raise prices

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  • In Trumps America? Doubt it. Profiteering during Covid will pale in comparison.

    • MIT Says It No Longer Stands Behind Student’s AI Research Paper

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  • The guy fabricated it completely. Just made the experiment and data up and got caught when the company he mentioned in the paper sued him. What a waste of a Stanford phd.

    • Feddit.org officially announces they will ban criticism of Israel and pro-Palestinian posts and comments.

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  • You can block the instance, which I’ve just done. Fuck these Nazis

    • Is it normal for people to ask where you are from online?

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  • Guy from HK in my DMs trying to get me to video call him.

    There are plenty of scammers out there too, but some people are just lonely or curious. They might’ve just recently got internet and the only interaction they’ve had previously is from within their slum.

    • Biden Aides Discussed Putting Him in a Wheelchair for Potential Second Term: Book

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  • He was still more reasonable and mentally capable than Trump. Only the public are to blame. You get the government you deserve.

    • More than 350 stars condemn Gaza ‘genocide’ in open letter in time for Cannes opening

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  • What does Ja Rule have to say on this?

    • If Christians were real, they’d be lining up to pay for their sins (not trying to avoid judgement).

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  • Where they at though

    • Jail Them!

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  • Wen guillotine party

    • people trashing the self-service section of the post office

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  • So what, they’re just lying there and anyone can take them?

    Here you either go to the till and they give you the parcel and you leave. Or there’s a lockbox which you can retrieve it and leave.

    • people trashing the self-service section of the post office

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  • Why even have a self service station?

    • If a country was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool proof deterrent against nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world?

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  • We’re cooked.

    • Comment your strangest/dumbest cursed images that you find funny for no reason

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    • Selling BTC or not..?

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  • It’s just my own analysis all things considered in alignment with Strauss-Howe generational theory which predicts a mass realignment within the next ten years.

    Unfortunately hellish dystopia realignment is the most probable currently. But the fascists have co-opted Bitcoin so probably pump anyway.

    • Selling BTC or not..?

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  • Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:

    • Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
    • Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
    • Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
    YearExpected Avg. Price80 % BandPrimary Drivers & Assumptions
    2025$130 k$ 90 k – $ 160 kPost‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor.
    2026$170 k$ 110 k – $ 220 kTypical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria.
    2027$125 k$ 80 k – $ 180 kPost‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling.
    2028‡$140 k$ 90 k – $ 250 k‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs.
    2029$350 k$ 200 k – $ 500 kHistorical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK.
    2030$500 k$ 300 k – $ 900 kArk Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax.
    2031$600 k$ 400 k – $ 1 mNetwork‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve.
    2032$700 k$ 500 k – $ 1.2 mPre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average.
    2033$850 k$ 600 k – $ 1.5 mPost‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside.
    2034$1.0 m$ 700 k – $ 1.8 mIf Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still 25 %.
    2035$1.2 m$ 800 k – $ 2.1 mMature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.”

    How the bands were built

    1. Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak 500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
    2. Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
    3. Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
    4. Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.

    Key caveats

    • Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
    • Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains 70 % annualised.
    • Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.

    These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.

    • Permanently Deleted

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  • It’s not it’s mostly daft memes and pictures. I wish it was more political.

    • Dow jumps nearly 1,000 and S&P 500 climbs 2.6% following a 90-day truce in the US-China trade war

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  • Because Trump bent the knee instead of retaining an effective embargo on one of their biggest trading partners.

    • Dow jumps nearly 1,000 and S&P 500 climbs 2.6% following a 90-day truce in the US-China trade war

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  • How did you not know, did you not consult the graph?

    • If a country was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool proof deterrent against nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world?

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  • I think the US has already achieved it and aren’t saying anything.

    Think how much money they’ve poured in there over the decades, as much as the rest of the world combined.

    They were working on directed energy weapons in the 80s to neutralise them from space, but the tech was ‘decades away’. They had a working pilot way back in 2000 too.

    • Trump administration poised to accept 'palace in the sky' as a gift for Trump from Qatar: Sources

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  • He’s too old there’s no way they’d risk it. Even if it’s just a ceremonial election for his chosen candidate which he retains influence over.

    • Trump says he told Netanyahu ‘we’ve got to be good to Gaza’ and allow more aid

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  • What planet are you on? He’s already greenlit ‘the gazification of the west bank’ and exacerbated the genocide, lifted sanctions, and has suggested a little light ethnic clensing so he can get to developing Gaza. Just like everyone with a clue said he would pre election to appease his massive West Bank donors.