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Posts
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2 yr. ago

  • Recognize that the data may be flawed. Polling is incredibly accurate, but only if you survey a simple random sample. And that is very difficult to do. It introduces a lot of difficulty in getting right answers. Some polling methodologies will try to manipulate the raw data and weight it to try and make it representative, but that introduces a whole host of problems.

    2016 and 2020 under predicted Trump's popularity for instance, while 2022 under predicted Democrats' popularity. We don't know what the situation now.

    Polls are still useful, but you have to treat them with a grain of salt. What tends to be more accurate is changes within the same polling group over time.

  • I think "Pokemon go to the polls" has made a lot of people wary about any pop culture references by politicians, but the issue with Hillary's comment was that she didn't really know what Pokemon Go was and tried to work it in to her terrible answer.

    If she has instead said, "Niantic should look into putting PokeStops at every polling site and giving extra items at these spots in particular to encourage voting", that would be very different. It would show she actually knows about Pokemon Go.

    It's all about being genuine

  • ... I just want to stop learning more about this man. Everywhere you look, there's something even more fucked up than whatever you knew before.

    (Jk, everyone needs to learn about him so we can win in November)

  • And both Biden and Harris support a ceasefire.

    Do 70% of Democrats also support a complete cessation of all weapon sales to Israel? Or ending our diplomatic ties with Israel? Or even a two state solution?

    This is a complex web of an issue. Support for a ceasefire does not translate to support for stopping weapons to Israel, nor anything else about the issue. Don't pretend otherwise

  • a position of power where she and the other members of the executive branch could take action as well as “striking a tough tone”.

    Ah, here's where you're mistaken. The Vice President is not a position of power. They can try to influence the president, like any other cabinet member, but that's it. They're effectively ceremonial.

  • I think a lot of Democrats were actually unaware of how bad Biden was, even within the party apparatus. It sounded like his close advisors were seriously sheltering him.

    Just goes to show that you need advisors and friends who aren't just going to blindly support and defend you, but will also call you out on your shit

  • It doesn’t matter what happened after.

    It absolutely does. The administration fought to get the workers what they wanted. That's more effective than a strike.

    Unions have not been set back decades either. In fact, they're more powerful than they've ever been. UAW brought auto manufacturers to their knees. SAG joined forces with writers to get their due from Hollywood and secure worker protections against AI.

    This is what a pro union administration emboldens. Let's not pretend that the rail strike was a simple black and white issue. It could've caused delays that would make water undrinkable in cities, prevent electricity or heating in winter, and delay crucial medication shipments.

  • And look how far that went. How Bernie was still unable to turn out massive numbers of young people.

    It's absolutely incorrect to say that voters are blameless. Bernie had a platform that was the dream for young people, and they didn't show up -- and I say that as someone who was 24 at the time and did vote for him in the primary.

  • And then Democrats convinced Biden to not run for a second term. Sounds like the party did in fact listen to the voters' will, and that's being reflected in the excitement that we're seeing across the board.

    And you know what? I wish Republicans made backroom deals. I wish they recognized Trump was a significant threat and aligned to go against him.