ammonium @ ammonium @lemmy.world

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2 yr. ago

Yes, just solar. Hydro is bigger now, but it doesn't have the growing potential. Wind is currently also growing exponential, but I don't see it doing that for 20 more years. And even if it does, it doesn't really make a big difference since exponential + exponential is still exponential. If it grows as fast as solar that would mean we're just a few years ahead of the curve.

Here you go, you'll need numpy, scipy and matplotlib:

 import numpy as np

    
from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt

# 2010-2013 data from https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [TWh]
y = np.array([32, 63, 97, 132, 198, 256, 328, 445, 575, 659, 853, 1055, 1323, 1629])
x = np.arange(0, len(y))

# function we expect the data to fit
fit_func = lambda x, a, b, c: a * np.exp2(b * x ) + c
popt, _ = curve_fit(fit_func, x, y, maxfev=5000)

fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.scatter(x + 2010, y, label="Data", color="b", linestyle=":")
ax.plot(x + 2010, fit_func(x, *popt), color="r", linewidth=3.0, linestyle="-", label='best fit curve: $y={0:.3f} * 2^{{{1:.3f}x}} + {2:.3f}$'.format(*popt))
plt.legend()
plt.show()

  

Here's what I get, global solar energy generated doubles every ~3.5 (1/0.284) years.

That was just an excuse, they just couldn't get the parts. Radar is back now.

Because it's called Full Self Drive and Musk has said it will be able to drive without user intervention?

Exponential, it fits the curve very nicely. I can give you the python code if you want to. I got 2 decades for all energy usage, not only electricity, which is only one sixth of that.

I just took the numbers for the whole world, that's easier to find and in the end the only thing that matters.

The next few years are going to be interesting in my opinion. If we can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels (look up Prometheus Fuels and Terraform Industries), we're going to jump even harder on solar and if production can keep up it will even grow faster.

I have to run out of the bathroom when my wife uses her Dyson hair dryer because it hurts my ears, and you're telling me this is by design?!

Yes, Android apps are signed and Android refuses updates with a different signature.

The mistake you make is that you assume the law works the same in China as in countries that have rule of law. China doesn't have rule of law, they have 'rule by law'. The Communist Party isn't just above the law, the law is a tool for them to use how they see fit. If you are undermining the Communist Party then that is by definition misinformation.

Remember, this is the same country where one day the minister of health aplauded a journalist's effort to combat pollution with a documentary called under the dome, and the next day it was gone from the internet as if it never existed. Whenever they have internal issues they stir up some hatred for the USA or Japan, only to be forgotten somewhat later.

They took 1984 not as a warning, but as a manual

Then look at the total TWh from renewables, and rate it has been growing Y-o-Y and extrapolate until it reaches the number needed to eliminate fossil fuels.

You’ll find it will take decades to build enough renewable capacity to replace fossil fuel based electricity generation.

I get ~2 decades when I extrapolate these numbers (from 2010-2023) to get to 2022 total primary energy usage for solar alone.

Energy usage will grow as well, and keeping that growth is ambitious, but it the future doesn't look that bleak too me if you look at it that way.

I'm getting a bit more optimistic when I read about companies like Terraform Industries and Prometheus Fuels. If they really can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels, things can change really fast for the better.

You probably looked over it, both are used.

In spoken language 九百六 isn't 906 but 960 ( shortened version of 九百六十), 906 is 九百零六.

Be aware that using open source doesn't protect you completely from this, look at what happened to Simple Mobile tools, best install your open source applications from f-droid.

Do you have any good open source alternatives for Nova Launcher?

I've never had UHT milk go bad in less than a week. Longest I've had it in my fridge and passed the smell and taste check was over a month, but at that point I didn't trust it anymore.

You guys don't have UHT milk?

How would it be displaced by SARS-CoV2? Wouldn't that require cross immunity?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9524051/

Seems to have been debunked: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/21/why-freakonomics-failed-to-transform-economics

Later researchers found a coding error and pointed out that Mr Levitt had used the total number of arrests, which depends on the size of a population, and not the arrest rate, which does not. Others pointed out that the fall in homicide started among women. No-fault divorce, rather than legalised abortion, may have played a bigger role.

Didn't machines at that time take mere seconds to boot?

That sounds much more reasonable, but don't forget these numbers are also skewed by sexism, on many levels. Victims might not even realize they are victims. In many jurisdictions a woman having nonconsensual sex with a man isn't even considered rape.

Now, I don't believe the numbers are even close to 50/50 or that women don't have the right thing being wary. But being wary is one thing, simply banning all sleepovers at the house of single male parents is another. I'd still call that sexist.