Tuukka R @ Tuuktuuk @sopuli.xyz

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Joined

5 mo. ago

The Oryx numbers at least are not underestimated – each single number has a photo to prove it. And the numbers published by ZSU always rise and descend hand-in-hand with those of Oryx – there seems to be a more or less fixed coefficient that you can convert the numbers back and forth.

Also, because the ZSU data is published before that of Oryx, it must be based on actual data. Then, the question is: what is the coefficient between reality and these numbers we keep seeing in these brown images. We have got a couple of leaks from the Russia, and they have been almost precisely the same as the data published by ZSU. Therefore, the coefficient is apparently 1.

I find it very surprising that the ZSU numbers are not inflated, but when trying to find evidence on how much they are inflated, I've only found evidence of them actually being as precisely correct as possible.

the Russian law prohibits using drafted conscripts in a war like this. While that law is largely ignored, it goes have the effect that the Russia hires soldiers mainly through giving them an enormous salary: In rural areas a factory worker might get a monthly salary of around 70 € per month. As a soldier you get 2000 € per month, which is about 70 € per day!

That also means, the soldiers are in it because they have decided they want to do they in order to give a less poor life for their family. Killing others' children in order to feed theirs better.

A very small fraction of the soldiers you see die have come to the front against their will.

Therefore: Roaches, not orcs.

I have not heard of another batch of NK soldiers after the initial 12000. There are talks about them possibly sending another 12000.

With the Russia losing 1300 soldiers per day as dead and wounded, the NK troops cover 10(+ maybe another 10?) days worth soldiers.

The Russian army is shrinking by about 15 000 soldiers per month. That was canceled out by NK troops for one month once, and possibly another one soon.

It is collapsing. Some people have interpreted the news as the economy being at the brink of an immediate collapse, but articles I have read have talked consistently of end of 2025/early 2026.

The difference is, in 2022 and 2023 it was assumed that once it becomes clear that the Russia's economy collapsing will be inevitable unless they immediately end the war, they would indeed end it. Now it's clear that they will indeed go to the very end, allowing their economy to collapse and then the war ending as a consequence of that.

So, yes, it was predicted that the economy will collapse by 2026, and the war would end in 2022 or 2023 to avoid that. But, the timetable of the actual collapse has not changed. Or, at least not the timetables I've been seeing.

This isn't a war of lines on the map, really. The Russia's goal is the end of Ukrainians as a nation. And breaking NATO's article 5.

They're using money in lieu of skill. Eventually they'll run out if it.

Then no more high salary for the Russian soldier – and consequently, no more soldiers.

It's quite a big claim that capturing 0.7 percent of a country is in any way significant.

I am not aware of any mechanic that would cause such a small change of territory control to have any noteworthy effect on a war's result. If the 0.7 % are indeed significant, how?

I would say that having three buttons of similar size would do no harm to ease of starting for those with no preexisting account.

So:

[ Join Lemm.ee ]

[ Join another instance ]

[ Log in to your instance ]

The login button could be on a different colour, but its shape and size should be the same as of the two other options, and, in my opinion, it should be grouped together with them.

(And indeed! Voyager is an awesome app and I'm complaining here only because I've seen you strive for excellent quality. Thank you very much for this awesome app! ❤️)

I wonder if "Log in" and "Learn more" being of equal size might be confusing?

It's difficult to say because now that I know the button is there, it feels like only an idiot would miss it. Would need to make human experiments with people who have no experience on Lemmy. Like, make them try to log on with my username on their own phone.

During the year 2024 the Russia managed to conquer 0.7 % of Ukraine's total land area. Less than a percent.

The areas conquered are indeed many, but that's just because they count places like Niu York and Progress. Those have such weird names because they are old kolkhozes – very big farms. Soviet farms had a lot of workers, and therefore houses, but it is still about conquering a kolkhoz.

Conquering 0.7 % of country's territory is not "advancing". The Russia keeps advertising its 100 metre successes as advancing, and for some weird reason the western media reports about those as advances.

But it is still 0.7 %. A negligible area.

What do you mean with this "As Russia keeps advancing"? It has not advanced since February 2022. The conversation is a bit difficult when the foundations of the conversation are so uneven. You talk about "Russia advancing", and to my knowledge, that has not happened. Could you please elaborate?

I asked for a person without a Lemmy account to install Voyager and make some screenshots. So, here's what my experience was like, and apparently that of others as well. I hope it helps understand in which way the average user is an idiot :) Here goes:

First, I launch the program. This is the screen I get:

So, I've already got an account, so I don't need to join Lemmy. Therefore, I choose the other option, "Pick another server", in order to tell which server my user account is on, and log in to that server.

Then I'm in this screen:

I choose Sopuli and all I get is a form for creating a new username. But why would I want to create a new one? I tried long-pressing the sopuli.xyz text, and got nothing.

Obviously, in the first screen there is the "Log in" button, but because there was "Join" and "The other option", I had assumed the "other option" must include the login. The text can be interpreted that way as well.

And, at the point when I was already at the list of Lemmy servers, the "Log in" option was nowhere to see, and I didn't come up with the idea of going back to the first screen, because I assumed I had already seen both of the buttons there, and I was sure I had pressed the button that was not "Join lemm.ee".

Then I gave up. Some days later I accidentally launched the program again when I was supposed to do something completely different on my phone. Oops. But, the good thing was, I got to that first screen again. And I double-checked that I'm indeed pressing the "Pick another server" button in order to log in with my pre-existing username, and then I noticed the Log In text that is not a button. And pressed it and found out that yes, Voyager does actually support using pre-existing usernames! And nowadays I'm using Lemmy.

Now I've heard of a few people who have installed Lemmy and all of them have first given up, and then tried again after I've told them to "look for the hidden Log In button in the first screen".

"Log in" is what most people will want to do, so people will assume that it will be one of the most prominent buttons. There can be reasons not to make it more prominent than it is; in that case the next screen, with the list of servers, could have a button for "Actually, what I want to do is log in with a username I already have!"

I'd like a "write here or choose from the list below" approach :)

~300000 vs. ~70000. 140 million vs 40 million.

=

0,0021 deaths per inhabitant vs 0,0018 deaths per inhabitant.

In military losses including wounded the Russia's situation is better in comparison to population, if.you look at raw numbers: about twice as many losses, but 3½ times the population. But it is always much easier for the defender to recruit soldiers than it is for the aggressor, so you'd need to add a coefficient for that. All in all, these numbers are in the same ballpark. They should not be able to make a huge difference, because both are decreasing at roughly comparable rates.

And I repeat: because of the Russia's exceptionally cruel behaviour in the temporarily occupied regions, the Ukrainians are likely to find much more manpower if manpower shortage becomes acute enough for the Russia to start advancing.

I don't think either side is going to win or lose the war because of manpower shortages.

Not necessarily. But it does habe about the same amount if trouble. Remember that the Russia's manpower consumption is extremely high, so they need to recruit a lot more than Ukraine in order to.keep their army from shrinking in manpower.

The Russia has those same problems as well, not only Ukraine. And Ukraine has the good thing that if it starts really seriously losing ground because of lack of soldiers, they will get more soldiers. People are scared shitless of what would happen if the Russia took over their homes. Ukraine's problem with the number of soldiers is a self-correcting one.

Also, the Russia needs to pay an increasing amount of money to hire soldiers. They get 200 000 Rubles per month for the service, while in the rural areas 8 000 Rubles per month is a realistic salary for a factory worker. It's a big difference, but anything smaller would not get people to risk their lives. And now that everything is getting more expensive with inflation around 20 %, you can buy all the time less and less bread for those 200 000 Rubles per month. And it's not really Rubles that they are after, but bread and heating. When prices of bread and heating rise, then also the soldiers' requirements for the salary level rise the same amount. There are reports of Russian troops' numbers dwindling.

It is true that Ukraine does have troubles recruiting soldiers, but it is a problem only if those troubles are bigger than how the enemy is faring regarding the same. If the Russia has more troubles recruiting soldiers than Ukraine does, then it's a net positive for Ukraine in the end.

Here's something that was among the first search results when searching for Russia Kherson torture: https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/04/13/ukraine-russian-torture-center-kherson

And then of course you can just read Putin's texts and texts published by the government's news agency RIA, telling that Ukrainians are not really human and they should not exist. He's told several times, first in 2021, that the existence of Ukrainians is a problem that needs to be corrected. And right in the last few days now in March 2025 he has been reiterating that there can be a ceasefire negotiations only if Ukraine first demilitarizes, which shows that if Putin doesn't manage to conquer all of Ukraine, he sees the war as an utter defeat. His goal is to remove the nation of Ukrainians from the face of this planet, and he is not going to settle with anything less.

Yes, of course at the moment the genocide is somewhat dormant, because the Russia needs to concentrate on other efforts. But what happened in Bucha and Irpin and other Russia-occupied territories in early 2022 is what will happen elsewhere in full scale (and is happening in a smaller scale already now) if the Russia manages to completely take over Ukraine. Ukrainians understand this, and that's why the country is ready to fight until the last man standing, if that must be. Still a better death.

Now I'll need to go sleeping (already two hours ago, heh), but do search for "russian media monitor" genocide on Youtube. Here's one video that I found very quickly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEDMbF-F4lo . This is from the main channel of the national television in the Russia.

This article was one of the most clearly articulated I've read in the Russian media: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Russia_Should_Do_with_Ukraine . They used to write a lot about this in early 2022, because they thought they would start with it soon full scale and need to prepare the Russian people for removing the Ukrainians. The main point of the article was that in one part it said that all nazis in Ukraine should be killed, and in another part of the same article it was said that anybody who supports the Ukrainian regime is a nazi. And here's about Putin's speech from three days before the war turned into a full-scale invasion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Address_concerning_the_events_in_Ukraine (And since the full-scale invasion was supposed to happen on 22.02.2022, it was supposed to be on the day before.)

After 2022, there have been constant references to the same idea, but Putin has retained the main thought that it is imperative for the Russia to get rid of the concept of Ukrainians existing.

Yes? WTF is this question of yours supposed to mean?

It's not life but death, though. What's so difficult to understand about the word "genocide"?

Half Life 4: Episode 3.