Sure but if your looking to use a chat service, 45% is not a high enough watermark to have reliability. Its so contingent on the network operator to allow for an IPV6 connection. And like I said, places like AT&T have a NAT on their IPV6 network.
Sure, but ipv6 is not widely adopted. I'm behind a CG-NAT but can't get an ipv6 so I have to operate a vps bridge to host my services. Some cell networks have ipv6 support but a few implement a NAT for it as well. AT&T only allows port 80 and 443.
Its not consistent enough to be useful without a centralized relay.
Signal knows who you are taking to. You can build a network of contacts based on that information. When you send messages your phone number is protected but your ip address is not, and the receivers phone number is not protected. So you can find two people chatting based on that information. The app automatically sends a delivery receipt when a message is received to the other user, exposing the senders phone number and IP address.
However, opposition in the country is backed by western agencies and NGOs, and likely their primary means of communication is signal since it's backed by western intelligence, meaning, western actors believe it to be safe from external interference.
I'm not arguing that the west is reading messages. I'm arguing that they believe it's a safe haven for their agents because they pay money to ensure it's safe for their agents. If it wasn't, they wouldn't use it. Its the same reason why the intelligence community in the west is a large supporter of the tor network. They use it in the field and operate their own exit nodes to protect their operations.
Peer to peer apps do not work without a centralized relay to get you around the CG-Nat that cellphones live behind. So they're not really peer to peer. You would be playing whack-a-mole with the relays, having to spin them up as they get blocked. Many ISPs implement CG-NAT as well. Its really dependent on how the network providers structure things. Someone from the country with local knowledge would have to test it.
"Likely"? "For sure"? So you have no idea of the opposition is using them, got it.