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  • You could be a Scottie Pippen but most people still say "who?" compared to Michael Jordan.

    But yeah, the data I posted showed it basically only gained 8 points going from Vice President to President because he already had a decent approval before the assassination.

    There's other historical examples to compare by, though none in the modern era, but Andrew Johnson didn't get re-election and was even impeached.

    Chester Arthur also didn't win reelection. Although James Garfield didn't exactly serve long 😅 but he was also really popular when he was elected.

  • Oh, I don't consider it charismatic.

    But it's definitely a power move that can fall under a type of charisma. It can definitely impress some in the right circumstances from my experience.

    I think because of the time period it was some sort of weird machoism thing. What Trump would want to pull off he didn't have a micropeen.

  • A third of what the dollar does isn't too bad (and better in SWIFT).

    I don't think Trump and his people are thinking much at all though, since doing what they're doing sounds like it would wipe out most of their wealth.

    And I know it would be a different economic system. What I'm asking is, is that actually bad in the long term?

    What has this system brought us? Excessive production accelerating climate destruction (how much will the economy matter then?), dependence on fossil fuels, and a rise to fascism?

    If the USA goes through Balkanization, would that truly be the worst outcome for the future of the world as a whole?

    Or put another way - is keeping the US empire worth the stability of the world economy as is? I think not, at least, especially with how things are going.

    That the EU could potentially come out on top is an optimistic take as far as I can see.

    It'll be terrible for the USA, but I still don't see how it would be terrible for the world. I'm old enough to remember countries that didn't rely on the dollar as much, and things were more affordable for the people of those countries then than now. The biggest influencer to me in economic growth seems to be improvements in science and technology rather than in dollars being used more.

    Maybe instead you could describe this damage for me, then, in a way I can better understand. If you have the time

  • Okay, I get all that.

    But, what you're describing sounds more like Covid lite, and this time the worst hit country is USA, which is more a service and software country that industrialized production one, rather than China, which is mostly material goods.

    I suppose oil yes, but I mentioned how that could also be a positive in a way, and EU has been weaning off oil fast already due to Russia. Sounds like if anything this would really help slow down climate change by crashing oil production logistics of anything.

    It also sounds like the Euro would greatly increase in value, enough to get a good deal of countries to join the EU that have good production and materials as well and balance out the severe deflation and get some supply chains back on quickly.

    Also the '08 financial crises in the USA helped the EU in the long run too.

  • As far as I understand, the recession that occured in 2008 era in Europe at least was in part due to lowered exports to the USA. But this time the EU economy is more diversified in part because of that event, and preparations had already been made because of Trump's first term.

    Again, not an economist, but my understanding is still this wouldn't impact us that much compared to others.

    And even the last recession that happened in the USA wasn't the worst that affected Europe. That was '92.

  • Okay, but does that mean the things I mentioned are wrong, and if so, how and why? I'm trying to figure it out here but I'm not an economist. I'm just thinking back to when something similar happened in history with the UK.

  • Russia has already defaulted on some loans. China's second biggest trade partner is USA (EU is first but trade is more balanced between the two than USA), so this would hurt China greatly as well.

    Seems to me EU would benefit the most.

  • Living in Finland, this sounds like a win to me with less repercussions for us than the USA. Wouldn't this make the Euro the strongest world currency, have Switzerland join the EU (along with Norway because of Petrodollars?) + Canada and Australia would be even more interested (because the commonwealth would be weakened), karmicly mess up China, free some Central American countries like El Salvador, speed up independence from fossil fuels, and also stop Israel's genocide campaign?

    I could be wrong, but that's just my understanding based on what you said.