KillingTimeItself @ KillingTimeItself @lemmy.dbzer0.com

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The youth think centrists are useless traitorous war criminal arseholes. You think you can talk down to progressives but somehow get the youth vote? You’re on crack.

yeah, that's the meme. That's the problem. People are pretending like it's the 65 year old life long dem voters that are fucking us over, but it's realistically going to be the youth, who mostly don't vote, and when they do, often not productively.

Rails about the popular vote in a nation using an electoral collage.

we use both the popular vote, and the electoral vote in presidential elections. Popular vote doesn't actually contribute to anything other than demonstration public sentiment, very clearly.

The electoral vote primarily fucks with the house and congress, since it's on the same level, it does also elect the president, but that's usually irrelevant, as the popular vote generally tracks with that.

not to mention any potential compound tariffs on complex goods likes automobiles for example.

Prices skyrocket immensely.

The housing market is only going to get more expensive, etc.

what kind of magical simulation must you be using to run these numbers my friend?

i'm not really convinced it was a significant enough margin to outpace the usual no show voter rolls. Historically we've had issues with turnout, and when it gets easier, more people vote, when it gets harder less people vote. I really don't think something that seems to really explicitly mobilize people under the age of 25 and above the age of 18 would be a very significant voter block to begin with. There's probably more people in there, but you're talking about people who are ethnically arab, and i wouldn't necessarily count those as those are going to be opposed to pretty much anything you do in the middle east regarding israel.

Someone would have to do some actual polling or research to find out whether or not it had a significant effect, but i'm betting it wasn't. It probably had something to do with it, but literally every campaign has these 1% base issues, it's literally unavoidable.

capitalism is right wing if you're schizophrenic.

You can be politically left and economically right, or some weird combination of the two.

There are three primary forms of political alignment, social, governmental, and economic. These are all roughly isolated, but tend to work together. You can be any combination of any political belief of any three of them, it's a triangle chart if you want to think about it in the political compass style.

she’s very pro police and anti medicare for all.

and these are the only two things that define "left" leaning i guess.

rainbow republican is wild considering she doesn't want to engage in any spending cuts, and the only thing that she supported, that aligns with the republican base was the israel palestine issue.

the only perceivable reason to create these videos is either for private consumption, in which case, who gives a fuck. Or for public distribution, otherwise you wouldn't create them. And you'd have to be a bit of a weird breed to create AI porn of specific people for private consumption.

If AI isn't involved, the same general principles would apply, except it might include more people now.

yeah but like, legally, is this even a valid argument? Sure there is techically probably like 0.0001% of the average person being used in any given result of an AI generated image. I don't think that gives anyone explicit rights to that portion however.

That's like arguing that a photographer who captured you in a random photo in public that became super famous is now required to pay you royalties for being in that image, even though you are literally just a random fucking person.

You can argue about consent all you want, but at the end of the day if you're posting images of yourself online, you are consenting to other people looking at them, at a minimum. Arguably implicitly consenting to other people being able to use those images. (because you can't stop people from doing that, except for copyright, but that's not very strict in most cases)

And now, being used to generate depictions of rape and CSAM.

i dont see how this is even relevant, unless the person in question is a minor, a victim, or becoming a victim, otherwise it's no different than me editing an image of someone to make it look like they got shot in the face. Is that shitty? Sure. But i don't know of any laws that prevent you from doing that, unless it's explicitly to do with something like blackmail, extortion, or harassment.

The fundamental problem here is that you're in an extremely uphill position to even begin the argument of "well it's trained on people so therefore it uses the likeness of those people"

Does a facial structure recognition model use the likeness of other people? Even though it can detect any person that meets the requirements established by its training data? There is no suitable method to begin to breakdown at what point that persons likeness begins, and at what point it ends. it's simply an impossible task.

yeah, primarily because you can't vote by mail in the 2024 election, where as you could in the 2020 election, enfranchising more people to go out and vote, and historically, it's not republicans that struggle to vote, it's the democrats.

vance was a traditionally good debater in an academic fashion, sure.

But the population doesn't like people like that. That's why people like trump and biden get elected over people like vance. Same thing with bush.

He didn’t have good counters to a lot of the shit that Vance was throwing out.

he had good counters to the most important disinformation in that whole debate, including a lot of the more reasonable stuff that vance just parades about, walz actually has something to speak on in those moments. Vance was clearly just focusing on formality rather than actual debate skills. And to be fair, if he countered every factually incorrrect thing vance said, he wouldn't be able to say anything at all, which is even more of a loss because then you haven't gotten anywhere, and your opponent has spent the entire time yapping. It's literally the neo-nazi meme.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/17/americans-view-walz-more-positively-than-vance-but-many-arent-familiar-with-either-vp-nominee/

not done specifically on the debate, but evidently i think it's fair to claim it's relevance here.

The broad consensus is that Vance handily won the debate

i disagree, i think you would find most people would argue that vance held a better debate, but walz was generally a better speaker. You can't look at this strictly through a debate lens, the american public doesn't care about them.

He is not even close to being a white Obama. Obama is a highly skilled orator, extremely skilled debater, and a scholar. Tim Walz connects well with people–perhaps especially well with midwestern people–but he is not a particularly strong orator,

i would argue that obama is a really strong speaker, like generationally so, anybody can be skilled in a debate, what really matters when it comes to debating is factual accuracy, and being able to quickly make your point. Which is historically something democrats have struggled with.

Walz i would argue is a good public speaker, maybe not in a formal sense, but again we're talking about politics here, people like when their politicians are relatable and down to earth, and walz does really well at this. He's not a scholarly type, but you'd be hard pressed finding anybody on either side of the isle that wants an academic in power. Walz also has significant policy experience through minnesota, which obama has through his presidency. Though it is more prestigious.

Walz is definitely more socially progressive than obama is, but obama is a bit of a weird case. He's very center left.

I wonder if Democrats will make the same mistake in 2026.

i really, really fucking hope this doesnt happen, i'm going to fucking lose my shit if it does. Because unless things change, it's not looking great for the trump midterms right now.

once he kicks the bucket, assuming they can't find someone the republican base will support as fervently as trump, the entire party is done for, it will collapse into a blackhole of nothingness.

The moderates who were supposed to swoop in and save Kamala pointedly didn’t.

kamala had 75 million votes, to the 77 million that trump got.

If anybody fucked up the election it was the hardline commies or super aggressive left leaning people that refused to vote for kamala because of whatever silly reason they had.

IDK why people on the internet are willingly this fucking stupid. Evidently looking at the biden results, there were about 7-8 million more votes than kamala received, which is considerably more inline with what you would expect had younger voters actually, well, voted.

You would literally need to be on fucking crack to take anything else away from the results of these recent elections. IF ANYTHING, the obvious answer is that the younger voting block NEEDS to go and vote, because historically, they don't.

TL;DR if you didn't already pick this up from basic civics knowledge, the vast majority of the voterbase is going to vote for "whoever is on the ticket this time" that's why trump even gets traction at all, maybe 10-20% of his voter base actually cares about him in any substantive manner. It's the same for the dems, 75% of the base is people who will vote for WHOEVER gets put on the primary ticket, some of those are going to be more moderate though, and if you run someone like bernie, they will pull out or switch support, which is one of the risks you take when running a more hardline candidate.

Trump was just able to viciously mobilize his segment of the population against the republican voter base (who are historically known to behave like this)

We do not have this advantage on the dem side, we literally have to mobilize the youth, that's the ONE thing that can save us.

kamala isn't right wing, at best she's a centrist, realistically a left leaning lib.

His debate performance was poor against Vance.

it was perfectly fine? He could most definitely run well after trump, due to the classic american flip flop phenomenon. Chances are he'd win, if the public is upset enough about how trump did, which right now, isn't looking great. And probably will continue to be that way.

He's literally obama, but white.

walz has also had a historically successful career in politics? Just look at what minnesota is doing.

i'm not even sure what that text is supposed to be referencing?

I assume it's not literally the message itself, because that would be kind of broad. I'm guessing he just said it weirdly, and that bothered people, because of course it did.

that would be so based.

its probably the video codec, ads also tend to be very short and are capable of fully buffering, unlike videos, so they can often manage to send properly, compared to a video.

Really efficient video codecs tend to be a real bitch on lower end hardware.

it really does. It may be off by a few percent, but it's almost always fairly close in line with what the outcome is, like i said, if we ignore the congress, because that would be directly influenced by FPTP in a measurable way.