IsoKiero @ IsoKiero @sopuli.xyz

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241

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831

Joined

2 yr. ago

I still have a fools hope that generals and other high ranking military people have their feet firmly on the ground, as their whole training, career and often identity necessities. And, at least on my belief, that also means that they won't lead their military across the ocean to get their ass handed over.

I'm quite confident that US military could defeat their Chinese counterpart on a level field, but fighting across the ocean is a logistical nightmare and even if they could get their boots on the ground against Chinese holding anything there would be nearly impossible and it would have an astronomical price tag. USA might be able to pull that off, but in the long term it would just be another Vietnam, but with far more severe consequences locally.

So, yes, I assume that generals would disobey. And any competent replacement would disobey too. Replacing them with someone who don't know what they're doing would just be a disaster for the US of A. It might still happen, but at that point they'd look like the "second strongest army in the world" which is being destroyed on a field in Ukraine and there would be no hope for anyone in the Europe (or maybe globally) who would like to do any meaningful business with the US, so they'd just dig their own grave. pretty much like what Russia is doing right now.

You are of course not wrong with that. But also I tend to believe that high ranking military personnel are pretty practical and rational on their decision making. Getting US military boots on the ground in China would be bigger than Vietnam war scale of operations even to the US army and it would have immense effects on both US army and the country as a whole. The operation would practically mean moving a smaller European country quite literally across the ocean even without any warfare and when the receiving coast is armed to teeth and willing to fight for their land it's way more difficult.

And for what? Absolutely destroying on whatever respect and trust is left globally? Because there's no way in hell US army would conquer and keep the whole China. Maybe expand Hong Kong or Taiwan a bit and gain a relatively small area of land for material imports? It just doesn't make any kind of sense at all.

9/11 retaliaton at least made some sense as US was willing to punish someone for the tradegy and Iraq wars had resources they could actually hold and gain from but with China there's just no way for US to make any profitable scenario out of open warfare. Anything they might gain from that would be diminishingly small compared to the military effort and expenses they would need to get anything out of that fight.

And that's what I'm pretty much counting on. No matter how patriotic the generals might be, attacking China just doesn't make any sense and it doesn't have any arguments for it beyond the rambling of a demented leader they have. I refuse to believe that the biggest military and logistics might in the world would do that stupid things just because one man said so.

will Americans stop him before he starts more wars?

A really good question. Politically it seems like it's not going to happen, but I still have (at least naive) hope that the actual US mlitary would not respond on commands should the cheeto order active military operations against China. That would make absolutely no sense in so many ways, no matter how you spin it around, that I'd expect the boots on the ground would just say 'fuck off'.

But I also tought that the orange clown wouldn't have a chance on elections either, so we'll see. And also, I'm across the pond from US, so my information is mostly from European media outlets and social media around here, so take that with suitable grain of salt. I just rather not see the reality where US is fighting China and Europe is left to deal with Russia. Not because we couldn't handle that, but because that would be just bat shit crazy situation in my lifetime.

Otsikosta huolimatta tuo ei taida aivan kokonaan mennä nimimerkki Riikan ansiolistalle. Yle uutisoi asiasta jo ~5 viikkoa sitten ja Google on ehtinyt jo kovasti pahastumaan asiasta.

Itse asia taas ei ole aivan niin suoraviivainen. Toisaalta nuo datakeskukset luo oheistyötä vartijoille, sähköasentajille, IV-insinööreille, lounasravintoloille jne, ja toisaalta jos niitä valtion toimesta tuetaan kohtuuttomasti niin kokonaisuuden kannalta hyöty voi jäädä jopa pakkaselle. En osaa suoralta kädeltä sanoa kumpi nyt sitten on parempi ja toisaalta vaikka kokonaisuus olisi valtiolle nettonegatiivinen euroissa niin se ei välttämättä ole silti huono investointi jos vaihdossa saadaan työllisyyttä ja yhteiskunnan hyvinvointia parannetua.

Yhtään tippaakaan mitenkään väheksymättä ihmisten epäilemättä hyvin todellista ahdinkoa täytyy jutusta yksi lainaus nostaa kuitenkin pöydälle:

Köyhillä viitataan Tervolan mukaan sellaisiin kotitalouksiin, joiden rahat eivät riitä yhteiskunnassa normaalina pidettävään elintasoon.

Sitä en nyt tiedä, onko tuo laskenta muuttunut johonkin päin tai että mihin tilastolokeroon Tervola nyt tarkalleenottaen viittaa, mutta mitä olen jotain noita "köyhyyden" rajoja nähnyt niin ne ovat kyllä omaan elämäntapaan verrattuna melkoisen kovia. Suuruusluokkaa suunnilleen satoja euroja kuukaudessa vaatteisiin per pää, useita (kalliihkoja) harrasteita perheessä, ulkomaanloma tai laskettelureissu koko perheellä kerran vuodessa, ravintolaillallisia säännöllisesti jne.

Itse en mitenkään päin, varsinkaan nykyään, voi sanoa olevani köyhä ja toki rahat tulee kulutettua vähän eri arvopohjalta, mutta mitä tässä on lomareissuja ja muuta touhuamista koko perheellä tullut katseltua niin jos 5 henkeä raahaa edes kotimaassa mihinkään muualle kuin karavaanarialueelle tekemään hiekkakakkuja niin viikossa humahtaa tonni poikineen, ja jos sen kiimaliiterin joutuu vuokraamaan niin halpaa se ei ole sekään.

Eli pointtina siis, että se "normaalina pidettävä elintaso" vaihtelee aika paljon yksilöittäin ja asuinalueittain. Elämisen kustannukset lapsettomana pariskuntana vuokrakaksiossa kun on vähän toista kuin omakotitalossa lapsiperheen kanssa ja jos näitä vaihtoehtoja yrittää sulloa samaan muottiin ja mittareihin niin metsään menee aika lujaa.

Itse olen toisinaan ollut vähän näreissäni kun (lapsettomat) sisarukset suunnittelevat että eikö mennä porukalla käymään ravintolassa syömässä kun X täyttää 30 vuotta tms. Sen verran onnellisessa tilanteessa olen, että tuommoisen kyllä lompakko kestää mutta ei tarvitse kovin kummoinen salaattipöytä + annosruoka -ravintola olla että kun maksaa 5 henkeä niin 200€ menee niin että pölinä käy. Idean ehdottaja taas pärjää 40-50€ budjetilla ja syö/juo vielä vähän paremmin.

Itsekin olen aikanaan ollut tilanteessa, että se raha on ihan oikeasti ollut tiukassa, vuokrarästejä ulosotossa ja tilanne muutenkin yhden lounaan päässä katastrofista, ja sitä aikaa ei ole yhtään ikävä. Mutta tuo "yhteiskunnassa normaalina pidettävä elintaso" on hyvin epämääräinen mittari ja jos johonkin tuommoiseen määreeseen ei yllä ei tarkoita automaattisesti sitä että olisi köyhä, ainakaan sillä tavalla kuin minä termin ymmärrän.

The real question is how much US GDP is relying on Chinese materials and products. I honestly have no idea, but I'm sure that it's more than zero.

And any meaningful investment in to the US, unless you already have manufacturing there, doesn't seem like a smart move. Tariffs (and policies in general) might change radically before the ink is dry on newspapers reporting latest changes.

I've been writing a small powershell script at work lately and as vscode now offers their AI bundled in I just tried it out of curiosity. It does a half decent job. Nothing I couldn't write on my own, but on a simple script it saved some time as I'm a long term linux guy and just getting my toes wet with powershell so I need to dig up proper functions and syntax pretty often.

But it also created a script which would have broken syntax and errors in it, so it still needed manual tweaking, but as long as you know what you're doing it can be useful. And also potentially dump your company data to some learning database.

Latest versions of maxim are still pretty useful weapons. Not on the field, or drawn with a horse, but if you have a ton of ammunition and mount one in a bunker where you can use water cooling it's still pretty powerful.

500-850 shots per minute (depending on model) with 7.62mm and with proper cooling you can just keep the trigger pulled and wreak havoc until you ran out of ammunition. Obviously it's still old, heavy and big, but if you don't have to carry it around it's still decent hardware.

Iltalehden seurannasta:

Riikka Purra kommentoi lyhyesti ennakkoäänten tulosta ennen kuin perui kaikki sovitut haastattelunsa.

– Hirvittävän huonot luvut, ei siitä mihinkään pääse. Toivottavasti niitä varsinaisen vaalipäivän äänillä saadaan sentään jonkin verran ylös, Purra sanoi Iltalehdelle.

Purra oli tosin tieten perunut tuon perumisensa sittemmin, mutta ei tuo kovin hyvää urheiluhenkeä osoita.

Is my current set up secure, assuming strong passwords were used for everything?

Network security is a complicated beast to manage. If general public can access your services over the internet, that's a threat you need to mitigate. Strong passwords is a good start on that, but it doesn't take into account if there's a flaw or bug on the service you're running. Also if you have external users, they might reuse their passwords and leak for those might cause a threat too, specially if there's privilege escalation bugs on the software you're running.

And so on, it's a too wide field to cover in a short comment here, but when you're building your stuff, and what is maybe the most disticntive feature on a good professional between a not so good one, is to think ahead and prepare for every imaginable scenario where something goes wrong. Every time you add a way to access your network, no matter how minuscle, think what happens if that way gets compromised and what it might mean on the very worst case.

Maybe you want to add another access point to your network since your terrace isn't properly covered. That's nice to have, but now everyone around 100 meters around your house/apartment might have access to your stuff if they can break your wifi security. Maybe you set up a reverse proxy or tailscale on the stack. Now the whole internet can at least probe your stuff and try to find vulnerabilities, try to use stolen credentials and even try to social engineer their way into your stuff. Or maybe you made an mistake and left something open that shouldn't be.

I'm not trying to scare you off out of anything. Go ahead and play with your stuff, break things, learn how to fix them, have fun while doing it. Just remember to think ahead about worst case scenarios, weigh their risks, think ahead and then go on. Learn about DNAT, reverse proxies, VPN and network layers and whatever you come across on your adventure but keep in mind that shit will hit the fan at some point. And learn to accept that, learn from your mistakes and do better next time.

In case you're not aware: Back in the day Ubuntu took off because Debian was maybe a bit too strict on their approach on being stable and rock solid for quite a few of different architectures. There was a time when you could just edit few files and migrate a running system from Debian to Ubuntu, just with way more up-to-date software packages and that's about the time frame I moved from Debian to Ubuntu too. For quite a few years it was pretty smooth, updates just worked, software versions were up to date and the general experience was more polished than what you could get from Debian at the time.

But that ship has sailed. Ubuntu changes stuff so frequently that the package maintainers can just barely keep up, snapcraft is a steaming pile of shit in my opinion and the stability is faint ghost on what it used to be. Maybe becuse it's not that compatible with Debian anymore and thus can't benefit from the original source, maybe for some other reason.

Whatever the case might be, running ubuntu gives you an ubuntu experience, which is very much not the same than debian experience. If you want more streamlined distribution I'd recommend Mint (Debian edition), if you want the rock solid system but with less refined experience where you might need to tweak thing or two manually then go with Debian.

And, mostly for the nitpicking commenters, I know, I grossly simplified things around and cut some corners. I know it's not as black and white comparison. This is just my generic experience over quite a few years with Linux on Desktop.

Hohhoi... Kopiosto on vähän oman aikansa tuote ja yhä enemmän on semmoinen kuva että ainoa mitä niiden toimintaan kuuluu on oman olemassaolon pönkittäminen. Pikaisesti netistä kaivettuna löytyi tämmöistä (ja tuosta copypastesta varmaan pitäisi kopiostolle maksaa korvauksia):

Taloudellista kehitystä vuonna 2022 tunnuslukuineen on kuvattu yksityiskohtaisesti myöhemmin toimintakertomuksessa. Yhteenvetona voi todeta, että tuotot olivat yhteensä 52,2 miljoonaa euroa ja siirto oikeudenomistajille menevään jakoon 46,2 miljoonaa euroa

6 miljoonaa euroa vuodessa siitä että välitetään korvausrahaa eri tahojen välillä. En nyt väitä, että kopiosto tai teosto olisi aivan tarpeettomia laitoksia, tekijänoikeudet ja niistä saatava korvaus on kuitenkin aika iso tekijä taiteen ja kulttuurin saralla, mutta harvempi voittoa tavoittelematon r.y. tuommoisilla rahoilla pyörii.

Like anyone who could think critically or even have slightest media literacy, but....

Hope he doesn't change his mind and/or get overruled by then. Stable and predictable global markets are sooooo boring.

Edit: oh.. it took 5 hours since I originally commented.

The option to run one cable to the monitor, or reversely charge your laptop with one docking cable.

USB-C docks can already do this. Obviously with less power and it's not perfect by any means, but we don't need another technology for this. And sure, it's two cables, one from wall outlet to integrated dock/monitor and usb-c from dock to laptop, but no matter the technology you still need something to plug in to wall outlet.

Hetzner provides managed web hosting too. For emails I think you need to look for some other provider.

And what exactly would that be? Essentially everything has insurance.

Here's a list of one type of that kind of disasters where, despite of insurance, various kinds of environmental damage has been left behind which may or may not completely heal, or at least it takes a long, long time.

Here's a pretty public different kind of disaster which I guarantee was not 100% covered by insurance either. Here's another. I'm not building a comprehensive list, there's just too many and their impacts vary wildly.

Then there's the waste management in poorer countries which also cause immeasurable damage to the environment all the time by using a nearby river as a sewage for everything. Here's one example which made into the headlines back then. And here's a list of similar examples.

“they replaced nuclear with coal”

Go read yourself:

A 2020 study found that lost nuclear electricity production has been replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately €3 to €8 billion annually, mostly from the eleven hundred additional deaths associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels.

And remember that the pollution which kills people just because breathing smoke and ash is bad, it's also radioactive.

Let’s not see which one’s marginally worse but instead maybe just push something that’s actually good for the planet?

That would be really nice. We just don't have the alternatives ready to go for that just yet. Here in Finland, on a good day, renewables produce more than nuclear, but those are exceptions. Feel free to look up the data in finngrid service. There's currently over 7000MW worth of turbines around but it's pretty common to have even less than 200MW of wind power in the grid and that unreliability needs to be stabilized with something else.

There's a ton of stuff going on all the time which no amunt of insurance will cover. Modern nuclear generators just can't blow up like Chernobyl. Fukushima is a bit different, but maybe we shouldn't build reactors in places where they can be hit by a tsunami in the first place. And even there the environmental impact was somewhat limited.

And that doesn't change the fact that shutting down nuclear plants and replacing their energy output with coal caused more radiation in ash and other particles which are spread out of the chimney to the environment as a part of normal operation.

And the funny thing is that coal power plants are actually more radioactive to the environment than nuclear power. Sure, accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima change the statistics by quite a lot, but for the absolute majority of nuclear plants they are way less radioactive to the environment than any given coal plant around.

Also there's not that many severe nuclear disasters in the history. Coal and other organic fuel plants cause far more casualties globally than nuclear ever did. But maybe it's easier to accept slow death of a lot of people due to cancer and whatever caused by organic fuel power plant emissions than single large spike when nuclear power (very, very rarely) goes wrong.

I've seen some shit. But I'm also old enough to not care. I'm a freaking system administrator, not a surgeon. No one has died if their email is unreacable for an hour or two. Shit happens, then you deal with it and that's all. Difference between a junior and a seasoned veteran is that old guys with battle scars is that the seasoned guy knows that something will break, shit will hit the fan and everything might turn up into a chaos and plan accordingly. Juniors will either endure and learn along the way or crumble.

When you've been in the business for few decades it's not that big of a deal to cause an outage. You know how to fix your shit, you know how to work with a severely crippled environment and you know how to build the whole circus from the ground up. And you also know that no matter how disappointed or loud the C** suits are, they'll calm down once you get them out of the hole.

Just today I had a meeting with discussion on what to do if some obscure edge-case ruins our ~5k users and few continents wide AD tree. Sure, if that would happen, it would most definetly suck balls to get back up and it would hurt the company bottom line and it would mean few nights with very little sleep, but no one would still die and our team is up to the task to build the whole crap out of nothing if needed. So, it's just business as usual. But all of us have been in the business long enough that we know how to avoid the common pitfalls and we trust eachother enough that should the shit hit the fan in the big way we could still recover the whole situation.

And still, even if the whole thing burns up in the flames, I've got the experience and skillset under my belt which will be valuable to some other business entity. I just don't care if the main office building is on literal fire. It's not my problem to fix immediately and when it is it's still just work. I put in the hours they pay for me and do whatever I can but when I'm off the clock the employer doesn't really exist in my world.