The moment that Russia had to lift their siege of Kiev I felt it was going to be a long fight. After I read of the first counter offensive and how much equipment was captured and how much had been destroyed I felt Ukraine could stalemate. Reading how Russia operated during Bakmut because that is the only way they could organize and operate was pretty surreal. I was discussing it with some friends and told them that even Ukrainian Army poofed out of existence it would be a pyrrhic victory: on their loss of military personnel and equipment, their sanctioned economy and little prospect to pivot away from a war economy, and the loss of geo-political prestige and Finland joining NATO. At this point I would say that Ukraine has a real shot at winning on their terms, but having crappyallies in the white house keeps the possibility of a pyrrhic victory for Russia.
The moment that Russia had to lift their siege of Kiev I felt it was going to be a long fight. After I read of the first counter offensive and how much equipment was captured and how much had been destroyed I felt Ukraine could stalemate. Reading how Russia operated during Bakmut because that is the only way they could organize and operate was pretty surreal. I was discussing it with some friends and told them that even Ukrainian Army poofed out of existence it would be a pyrrhic victory: on their loss of military personnel and equipment, their sanctioned economy and little prospect to pivot away from a war economy, and the loss of geo-political prestige and Finland joining NATO. At this point I would say that Ukraine has a real shot at winning on their terms, but having crappy allies in the white house keeps the possibility of a pyrrhic victory for Russia.