I don't see how this specifically spells more unsettledness. There are already lots of extremists in power in the middle east. Syria has been in civil war for over 10 years and state forces have barely been holding on to the point where a sudden offensive was able to completely topple the regime in a week, it was already unstable and Assad had already failed as a stabilizing force, on top of being a butcher himself.
I'm not super optimistic about it, but the peoples of Syria do have an opportunity to build themselves more responsive governance and a better future, and I hope they will be able to make it work.
I don't know that biden truly had the ability to stack the court, any justice he wanted to add would have to get through the senate. Which was only very narrowly held by the dems, and a pretty minimal amount of defections would have scuttled the plan entirely while also having broken the taboo. I don't actually trust biden either, so the world in which biden destroys the democratic norms and seizes power in that way also is a really bad situation.
Supreme court shot down the 20k for pell grant recipients and 10k for non pell grant recipients plan, and basically said that at that scale should require congress. So all the smaller programs have been calibrated to try to survive the court battles.
A tariff on steel and aluminum will have much farther reaching consequences than guns. A specific tariff on smokeless powder is pretty unlikely, though maybe could be part of trying to ramp up domestic production. The US military is trying to make that happen, but that's kind of the opposite of what you want.
Short answer: yes, maybe not $30/dozen and maybe not instantly but probably quickly.
Mechanized farming requires mechanized parts and transportation, even if domestic supply lines exist, the global market supply contributes to price. If that global market is heavily resricted through tariffs, price increases will propagate throughout the system.
The sudden and massive tariffs like trump has suggested (60% on all chinese goods, and 10% on all import goods) could be enough to spur a general global economic collapse. That is a huge amount of extra friction on a system tuned to extract maximum profit rather than be resilient, and we saw with the covid supply shocks how a string of comparatively local and sporadic events were able to wreck havoc.
I don't see how this specifically spells more unsettledness. There are already lots of extremists in power in the middle east. Syria has been in civil war for over 10 years and state forces have barely been holding on to the point where a sudden offensive was able to completely topple the regime in a week, it was already unstable and Assad had already failed as a stabilizing force, on top of being a butcher himself.
I'm not super optimistic about it, but the peoples of Syria do have an opportunity to build themselves more responsive governance and a better future, and I hope they will be able to make it work.