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  • can they do that? I thought federal officials superseded state ones?

    Federal law supercedes state law. That doesn't mean federal officials can go where they want.

    IIRC, the issue is that the Voting Rights Act gave DoJ the power to observe elections, but the SCOTUS partially nuked the VRA. So now it's not clear whether the DoJ still has that power, and the usual suspects are taking advantage of this ambiguity. Possibly hoping to give the SCOTUS a chance to nuke more of the VRA.

  • It's not necessarily legal.

    The judge hasn't ruled yet on whether Musk broke the law. He simply declined to issue a preliminary injunction.

    A preliminary injunction tells someone to stop what they are doing while the court case plays out. In order to get a preliminary injunction, you have to convince a judge that there will be irreparable harm by letting someone continue.

    In other words, a judge might rule against an injunction but nevertheless end up ruling against the defendant. Especially if the judge thinks the harm has already been done.

  • No, you didn't see this poll predicting Hillary crushing Iowa.

    The Selzer poll is one of the best, it only looks at Iowa, and in 2016 it was one of the few that said Trump was doing much better than everyone expected.

    In 2020 it said Biden was doing better than Clinton, but Trump was nevertheless doing better than expected.

    In both cases, it was spot on. And this year, it says Trump is doing far worse than everyone thinks.

    That said... Go vote!

  • Right, LV polls often don't ask where you voted.

    But this article is not about a poll. They are looking publicly available PA voting records. They look like this:

    • Doe, John: voted in 2024, 2020
    • Doe, Jane: voted in 2024

    PA isn't going to cross-reference their database with other states. So there is no good way to tell if Jane Doe is a first time voter or just a recent move. Either way, she is a new voter.

  • That's huge because new voters aren't counted by pollsters as "likely voters".

    Actually, they might be. In this article, a "new voter" is someone who did not vote in 2020 in Pennsylvania.

    If they voted elsewhere in 2020 (ie recently moved to PA) then they could be counted as likely voters in polls even though they are "new voters".

  • That's not how it works.

    When the EV's for a state are counted, the House and Senate have one opportunity to object.

    If there is an objection, a vote is called. A majority in both houses is necessary to reject those EVs.

    If there is not a majority in both houses then the motion fails, the EV's are accepted, and the VP moves on to the next state.

  • When the votes are counted, the presiding officer will be VP Kamala Harris, not the House Speaker.

    And the only way to block a state's certification is if both the House and Senate agree. Otherwise they have to accept the results certified by the governor.

    • This is a lawsuit, not criminal charges. It could be bad for Musk (see: Engoron decision) but there is no risk of arrest or jail. Yet.
    • Defendants who lose lawsuits cannot be pardoned. Only criminal charges can be pardoned.
    • "All parties must be present" means someone on the defendant's side must be present. It is not unusual for only the lawyer(s) to attend.
    • The case has been moved to federal court for now. But it could be moved back if the federal court decides it belongs in state court.
  • Just to be clear:

    • Voter registration in VA has required the voter's SSN (if they have one) since 1971. It's actually written into the VA Constitution!
    • Driver's licenses have required the driver's SSN (if they have one) since 1968
    • Citizenship is on drivers license applications because of the Real ID Act, passed by Congress in 2005

    So I don't think you can blame the current crop of MAGA idiots for collecting this information. I don't even necessarily blame anyone for trying to combine the datasets.

    However, doing so less than 90 days before an election is absolutely unacceptable.