New vegas had tons of crunch to make the whole game in like 10 months (a year and a half, thanks commenter) because Bethesda. I trust he knows what he's talking about
Edit: my timeline was way wrong but my point still stands that obsidian was crunched due to Bethesda deadlines
I'd argue it's 50% by process of eliminating with some grouping. 60% is right out, as it doesn't make sense. This essentially leaves us with 50% and 25%, and since there's 2 options a random guess would have a 50% chance of being correct
That's how I showed up to my last job interview