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  • None of these models take into account the issue that an 81-year old cannot campaign as effectively as a younger person. It’s very unlikely that Biden can turn the tide in his favour through a great debate performance or speech. The best Campaign he can run is by hiding such that voters do not see how old and fragile he is. That’s not our best bet for beating Trump.

  • She is in a completely safe district meaning that there are no downsides to promoting her as VP (or Senator for that matter). I could also imagine her going the route of Governor to gain some executive experience.

  • Consider the last months before election. Congress is held up by Republicans on public hearings related to the Trump shooting. Trump is holding rallies. Meanwhile the Biden campaign has to limit the nr of Biden appearances due to old age. To defeat the Reps we need a candidate that can be in the spotlight 24/7, and Biden cannot do that job. That’s why changing the candidate is essential.

  • Somebody Fucked Up

    Jump
  • Wasn’t there a story that Trump had corrupted the Secret Service to the point that Pence did not believe they were there to protect him? Perhaps this is what you get if you prefer loyalty over competence.

  • If you think about the Democratic parties base, two groups stand out. Lefties (like most people on Lemmy) and people of color, particularly black women. If you select Newsom over Harris you i.) deal an enormous insult to people of color, and ii.) don’t go nearly far enough left to satisfy Lefties. What part of the base would be enthusiastic about such a milquetoast replacement?

  • Here I think lies the main problem. When Biden was elected in 2020, in my understanding the goal was always for him to warm the seat for the next/younger generation. In those 4 years nobody stepped forward, and they are scared of proposing a forward looking vision because it may alienate some voters (either on the left or in the center). So now we have the choice between stagnation or actively tearing down Democracy.

  • If you elect Biden with high probability we end up with i.) he dies on the job, ii.) he steps down during his term or iii.) he is removed by his cabinet. Just completely ridiculous to nominate anyone over 75, let alone 81. Mandatory retirement exists for a reason.

  • I guess it depends on what you mean by Democrats. There were some quite high ranked people openly critical and suggesting replacing him (more than I would expect). Dems are not a singular entity… but the only person with the power to replace the candidate at this point in time is Joe Biden himself. So if he doesn’t step down I do expect most high-ranked Dems to fall in line.