DicJacobus @ DicJacobus @lemmy.world

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8 mo. ago

all of it. Europe bought the lie of peace dividends, outsourced their defense to America, and elected weapons grade morons and co-conspirators like Burlesconi, Merkel and Orban, who opened the door for Putin to put Europe in a comprimising position once he decided to s tart shooting.

And now America wants out.

Europe's either going to have to prepare for war. or accept that Russia is going to get to do what it wants, and continue to ratfuck European politics with shit like Orban, Fico, and whatever the fuck BRUV is.

Didn't a year ago or so, Some European lawmaker made a vague hint in support of something that involved regulations on social media, and Elon replied "go fuck yourself" verbatem?

Play hardball, or surrender and give them what they want. there's no compromise or middle ground with these techbro fascists

I quit facebook about 5 months ago, when I finally snapped at just how vapid people were. The keyboard warrior energy was too much to bear. and that was on top of the political news spam.

news is actually banned from facebook in our country because of the rampant disinformation associated with it. so spammers got around it by disguising news as really shamless product advertisements, stuff like

"NDP LEADER JAGMEET SINGH KILLED IN FATAL CAR ACCIDENT, ON LIVE TELEVISION" - and it's an advertisement for some Chatgpt generated lifestyle blog. Advertisement posted by an unverified account in Hungary or some shit

bro was given the choice to either ride off in disgrace, or be the man who willfully chose to do something that would start a second civil war. bro chose the former.

people are going to die. he just chose not to be the one to make the decision. its the runaway train / track problem. do nothing, and something horrific happens do something, and something horrific still happens.

the problem with that argument is Israel doesn't give a goddamn about Russia and China, or the West, and their conflict with Russia and China. they wont take a side against them, they wont do anything other than work to secure their own position in the Levant.

Ukraine has been asking for Israeli help since day 1 and Israel has left them on read. Israel doesn't give a fuck about what anyone does in the world, only about what they can do for Israel, Israel isn't an ally. its basically a co-belligerent with a supremely effective lobbyist movement.

For real, a couple of nice vehicles, a couple of properties, a business of 30-50 employees, and maybe a small team of domestic employees cleaners, sitters, contractors, security... thats what 10mil buys you. and im stretching it.

basically described my boss, minus the cleaners , sitters and security guards thing. (and his business is a modest sized car dealership..)

I've been following this conflict since the very beginning Euromaidan

I have been saying for the last couple years. there is frankly only one scenario where the fighting stops, peace holds, and violence doesn't escalate somewhere else in Eurasia because of it.

September 2022 was the point of no return, any prospect of Russia taking an offramp and everyone going back to a bitter status quo ante-bellum was closed forever by the end of the month. during that month we saw the formal annexation of 4 oblasts. and we also saw the Russians suffer a major defeat and their professional army was in full retreat in the north. They had the opportunity to call it a day, instead on the 22nd, they started a mobilization. that was the end. Now, after that point, the conflict only ends for good in one way

Ukraine joins NATO, Ukraine surrenders the occupied territory formally. Everyone is mad, everyone gets something they want. This is the only scenario I see that will work, and its a bitter one Dont get me wrong, I'm a self admitted psycho who would be perfectly fine with the collapse, balkanization and occupation of the russian federation, but it isnt going to happen, the US is terrified of the prospect of having to deal with the russian nuclear arsenal being fought over,

all other scenarios are as follows.

Fighting continues with no end in sight. Until either

**A1 - Russia collapses internally, and then the world has to deal with Russian civil war, *a catastrophic scenario, and the leading reason NATO never went whole-hog on Ukraine support.. Result - Further, even worse violence in the east. Probable nuclear exchange as ultranationalist blood drunk Russian factions fight each other, and foreign intervention forces

A2 - Ukraine falls, Ukraine turns into a european afghanistan as "The hard part" begins, an insurgency more heavily armed than most standing armies. An apocalyptic humanitarian and refugee crisis. And honestly, Shooting probably starts between Russia and Europe. whether it be Europe Intervenes, or Russia decides to push further. Result - Further, even worse violence in the west. Probable nuclear exchange as WW3 starts in earnest** We're already in WW3, btw

B Or a "ceasefire" is signed, without any concrete assurances to Ukraine, in which case, many western countries use it as an excuse to finally decouple from the country, and in 5-10 years, Russia attacks again, as Russian treaties are only good for wiping your ass, and we're right back into A1 or A2. The fighting goes until the Russians collapse, or the Ukrainian state falls.

Ukraine doesn't have the strength to dislodge russia from the donbass anymore, or crimea, and even if they did, the area is effectively colonized, anyone who was loyal to ukraine was murdered or evicted. now whats left of the donbass is just a depopulated shadow where a bunch of pragmatists, traitors, and new arrivals moving from russia setting up shop are. the people who live there mostly hate the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian people hate the people who live there. It's largely acknowledged by the people of both sides that they can never be together again. regardless of what politicians in Kyiv, Moscow, Brussels or DC say.

The only way they'd be forced out is by NATO participation, and just go back to one of the scenarios that results in direct conflict.

Russia cant afford to end the war, their economy is locked into war mode. Ukraine in NATO was like, one of the only war goal preventions that they never lied about

Russia will never, ever agree to it without a gun to its head. the only way it will ever happen is if NATO threatens "accept it, or we go to war"

To be clear. What I'm talking about is russian influence and blackmail that ultimately leaves Europe divided and Infighting. Without the physical force part.

Effectively giving them the result they want without fighting the war of conquest to achieve it. I'm aware they can't fight for shit. Ukraine showed that. But they are still tearing the west apart with information warfare.

The time to act on this was several months ago, now its too late. Russia regulatory captured the US, the US wont go to war alongside Europe against Russia now, So now, Europe either has to prepare for a shooting war, or accept russian hegemony over europe.

Ukrainians in 2022 - we are very lucky they are so fucking stupid Russians in 2025 - we are very lucky they are so fucking stupid

Information warfare is Russia's specialty, in that its the only way they can fight NATO. Convetionally, they would be wiped from the field. and they know that. the Ukrainian army, that was "supposed " to last 3 days, completely shitrocked them and fought them to a bitter standstill for 2 years to the point the only way Russia could push forward, was by getting Ukraine's allies to stab them in the back (information warfare).

They dont stand a chance in hell of defeating NATO militarily so their only option is to have NATO tear itself apart politically, (the third option of NOT being an imperialist warmongering sphere of influence obsessed peice of shit, is not negotiable, that concept is practically joined at the hip with Russia's very identity)

the most furious debate of all time will be whether the United States is owned by the AIPAC, or the Russian Mafia.

if they aren't in one pocket, its the other

Canada sucked major ass at the world juniors this year. USA has won back to back.

South Africa is already against America, they're in bed with China and Russia, they're the S of "BRICS"

occupation of people who are virtually indistinguishable at a glance. Just ask the Russians how that worked out in Eastern Ukraine, the only way they could ever secure the place was by killing pretty much everyone.

Germany, Austria and Switzerland speak German, and are still different countries. US, UK, Canada, NZ and Australia speak English, and are different countries France and Belgium speak French, are different countries. The entire Arabic speaking world is spread across like 20 countries. Russia and Ukraine both speak Russian*, and one tried to merge with the other, violently, and are now bitter enemies probably forever..

Is "Fuck off and leave people alone" an option in peoples brains?

could have easily been right wing extremists, nazis and the like.

but who am I kidding , it always ends up leading to Moscow some way in another.

Europe needs to stop sitting on its hands, abandon this wait and see attitude, they should be at the figurative equivalent of DEFCON 2 by now. they need to seriously prepare for a shooting war. The expectation all this time has been that Trump will abandon not just Ukraine but Europe as a whole, he sees the continent as Russia's plaything, whereas the western Hemisphere is his. They need to prepare for war.

Russia will still get cooked by European NATO, But the casualties will be tremendous on both sides, Putin acts as if he has Syphilyis or something eating his brain, he's an old man and he will kill to secure his idea of being a "great man of russia for all time". the Krokodil Vodka fiends have convinced millions of Russians that heroically dying in a war against the amorphous "West" is a pathway to heaven and glory not unlike Islamist Extremists and their 72 virgins.

truth doesnt matter, the only thing that matters is convincing you to vote for the people working for this cabal, so that they get to solidify their power and effectively game the system so that they can never lose again (Fidesz in Hungary, Likely GoP in America)

We knew this, The GOP is controlled by a man who's subordinate to the Russian mob, and convinced everyone not to care