BluesF @ BluesF @lemmy.world

Posts

1

Comments

596

Joined

2 yr. ago

No, it isn't, that's a misunderstanding of how independent random variables behave. Even with an infinite number of trials, in this case there is never a guarantee of a particular outcome.

Consider a coin flip, 50/50 chance of either getting heads or tails on each flip. Lets say we do an infinite number of flips, one by one, so that we end up with an infinite ordered set of outcomes, like so: {H, T, T, H, ... }. Now, consider the probability of getting a particular arrangement of heads/tails in this infinite list, like the one I wrote before. You can't calculate a probability for each arrangement - there are an infinite number - but it should be clear that each arrangement is equally likely, right? Because {H, ...} is just as likely as {T, ...}, same with {H, H, ...} and {H, T, ... } and so on and so on. In other words the probabilty of getting all heads on infinite coin flips is the same as the probability of getting any other combination.

In the same way, the infinite monkeys are doing 'coin flips' involving more than 2 options. Lets just assume they have 26 keys, one for each letter, and assume they hit each of them with equal probability. In the same way, for an individual monkey the probability of going {a, a, a, a, a, a, ..., a} is the same as the probability of the same sequence with hamlet somewhere (in a particular position that is - the probabilities are only equal when we consider exactly one arrangement). What might make it more intuitively clear is that even after an infinite number of trials you only have one sequence of letters (or set of sequences, with infinite monkeys). It's clear that there are other possible sequences - like only the letter a - and these all have a non 0 chance of having arisen given a different infinite set of monkeys for a different infinite time period.

It's easy to be misled here! If we return to the coin flip example, the probability of flipping at least 1 head after infinite coin flips approaches 1. The limit of P(at least one H) as the number of flips approaches infinity is 1. But this is a limit! You never reach the limit, even considering infinite situations.

Not necessarily. Each monkey is independent, right? So if we think about the first letter, it's either going to be, idk, A, the correct letter, or B, any wrong letter. Any monkey that types B is never going to get there. Now each money independently chooses between them. With each second monkey, the chances in aggregate get smaller and smaller than we only see B, but... It's never a 0 chance that the monkey hits B. If there's only two keys, it's always 50/50. And it could through freak chance turn out that they all hit B... Forever. There is never a guarantee that you will get even a single correct letter... Even with infinite monkeys.

I get that it seems like infinity has to include every possible outcome, because the limit of P(at least one monkey typing A) as the number of monkeys goes to infinity is 1... But a limit is not a value. The probability never reaches 1 even with infinite monkeys.

No, that's also a measure of size used primarily for those big fords with the tiny beds.

I really wanted to like that book, but aggressively making points I agree with just wasn't enough

Oooof. I feel like trying to figure out what's wrong with some regex I didn't write is much harder than writing it myself personally.

The next-generation tank will have stronger preemptive strike capabilities using an artificial intelligence-based fire control system

Well that's disturbing. I wonder what level of buzz word AI this is? Safe to assume computer vision is involved, target/threat identification... Does "preemptive strike" imply the fire control system is firing by itself? I know it's not the case but it's hilarious to imagine it's ChatGPT doing it.

Hey man, I'm sorry... If they handed you a measurable quantity of cherries then you didn't get what you asked for.

10/10 callback to smooth sharks at the end there.

No Peter, this isn't an electron, this is the power of the sun

Rhyming slang isn't really supposed to be funny, rather obfuscatory. It's almost like a cipher, so that anyone not in the know doesn't understand. That's a theory, anyway.

Do you have two tiny space bars?

It really seems like not only can't they be touched, but everyone else is also so jaded by the situation that no one is even fucking trying.

So you care at least a little bit then. Otherwise you wouldn't be able to care less.

Inspired by the story, another landlord decides to name their pub "Pig and And and And and Whistle." Lo and behold, the sign was cramped... Ther needed more space between Pig and and and and and And and And and and and and and And and And and and and and and Whistle.

This one was wild:

In an example they uncovered, a speaker said, “He, the boy, was going to, I’m not sure exactly, take the umbrella.”

But the transcription software added: “He took a big piece of a cross, a teeny, small piece ... I’m sure he didn’t have a terror knife so he killed a number of people.”

From picking up and object to mass murder lmao. Not even close!

Oh my, it's a good thing I wasn't drinking when I read this. My upholstery would have been ruined.

All the cool people will be right there with you my friend. Well, almost all, anyway.

You get paid for four days what you used to get paid for five.

Huh. I had no idea you could play it in VR. Doesn't really seem like a game which would be at all enjoyable in VR tbh, too much movement - especially vertical and sudden. I do not enjoy the idea of facing a creeper in person lol

If we split a hare we'll both go hungry cause hares are small and I'm vegetarian