ArbitraryValue @ ArbitraryValue @sh.itjust.works

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2,154

Joined

2 yr. ago

I hope the bunker-buster bombs worked. Whether the costs of war are worth paying in order to destroy Iran's nuclear program is debatable, but they're definitely paid in vain if the program survives.

Nah if I'm going to shill for any Manhattan grocery store, it will be Fairway. It's also really expensive but it feels like being in the sort of store you'd go to if you were rich, not like being ripped off. Their cheese counter has prices per 1/4 pound for some of the cheeses but then if you get some $15 per 1/4 pound cheese it will taste so good that you'll think it was worth it. I haven't been there in years but I still long for that cheese.

I don't think that's actually an unusual conversation for people who live in Manhattan to have. The comments about relative prices are accurate in my experience - I live on the same block as a Gristides and I still never shop there because of how expensive it is, even compared to Whole Foods. I get most of my groceries in Brooklyn on the weekends.

I also know a woman with a whole stack of different credit cards, so she always has the one that gives her the most rewards for whatever specific thing she's buying. I'm sure she has one for grocery shopping.

It sounds like he's talking about American technology used by Israel, not about America acting directly.

Israel is an ally of the USA but Iran is violently hostile to the USA.

My mother loved Dr. Mario. She would sometimes encourage me to skip school ("Are you sure you feel alright? You look like you might be sick. Maybe you should stay home just in case.") and we would play it until my ten-year-old self got bored first. However, she had zero interest in even trying any other games.

I interpret this as a way for Trump to position himself as the "good cop" rather than as a factual description of something that actually happened, or else I would be concerned about how such sensitive secret information is apparently being casually given away to news agencies.

I think many people learned the wrong lesson from GWB's Iraq War. It was presented as (among other things) a way to stop an enemy of the USA from obtaining nuclear weapons and it was a mistake, so they conclude that using force to stop enemies of the USA from obtaining nuclear weapons is a mistake. However, using force (if necessary) to stop enemies of the USA from obtaining nuclear weapons is a prudent idea and the problem with that Iraq War was that it was not actually fought for that purpose. GWB was the boy who cried wolf but real wolves still exist.

As if human legs aren't the weird ones - they evolved from feet into hands and then into weird hands that we walk around on and call feet.

I see a dimetrodon.

I'm not sure what's novel here. No one thought that modern AI could solve arbitrarily complex logic problems, or even that modern AI was particularly good at formal reasoning. I would call myself an AI optimist but I would have been surprised if the article found any result other than the one it did. (Where exactly the models fail is interesting, but the fact that they do at all isn't.) Furthermore, the distinction between reasoning and memorizing patterns in the title of this post is artificial - reasoning itself involves a great deal of pattern recognition.

You could jump to conclusions, or you could ask whether or not there is evidence that scientists' work in their own field is affected by irrelevant unscientific beliefs that they hold. In my experience, people are very good at compartmentalizing their beliefs.

Serious answer:

That's cool. What makes it special?

Sometimes people talk about how expensive something they own is simply because they're proud that they could afford it and even when they're being tone-deaf, there's no benefit to getting offended when you could just move the conversation along instead. (Although you might have to listen to them talk about watches.) If they were trying to brag, now they're stuck trying to explain why the watch is actually worth what they paid and you're the one judging them.

Cars (and watches) aren't so expensive that a middle-class person can't plausibly already own the one he would buy even if money was unlimited. You can act like that's true about you. My status-conscious former mother in law was bothered by the fact that I owned an old car, but when she would bring it up I would just say "I really like the 2008 model." She couldn't argue with that.

How can the war realistically end?

1. A return to the pre-war status quo. The withdrawal of Israeli troops, presumably in return for the hostages, with either Hamas or another group equally hostile to Israel in control of Gaza. This is the worst-case scenario for Israel, because it represents a total failure to eliminate the source of more potential October 7 attacks. I suspect it's the worst-case scenario for Gaza too, since future attacks on Israel would lead to future destruction in Gaza.
2. The destruction of Hamas and the establishment of a Gazan government friendly towards Israel, perhaps by the Palestinian authority or a coalition of Arab states. Very difficult and failure-prone, but a pathway to peace in the long term. I had hoped that this would be the outcome when the war started but it isn't what Netanyahu is trying to accomplish and by now I'm not sure there's enough goodwill left for it to still be possible.
3. Permanent Israeli occupation. I don't think Israel can maintain such an occupation - it would be extremely expensive in money, lives, and international goodwill. Netanyahu and his supporters seem to think that Israel can, but many of them seem to make plans reliant on divine intervention.
4. Expulsion of the population of Gaza. Egypt wouldn't accept that without a war. Maybe Trump thinks he can find another country that would, but even if he did (unlikely) then the logistics of moving two million people would be extremely challenging. I think this outcome is effectively impossible - another one of the "divine intervention required" plans. However, it would be a best-case scenario for Israel. The gain in territory means little, but no longer having Gazans as neighbors immediately ends the conflict for good, which no other outcome does.

If (2) isn't going to happen then (4) may be the best case scenario for everyone. Even the people being expelled and their descendants would probably be better off than they would be if they remain in Gaza for for many more decades of conflict. However, I very much doubt that it can happen.

Heh, I loved the first one and then I tried the second one, hated how they changed the combat, and quit.

An exponential function is a precise mathematical concept, like a circle or an even number. I'm not sure what you mean by "asymptote" here - an exponential function of the form y = k^x asymptotically approaches zero as x goes to negative infinity, but that doesn't sound like what you're referring to.

People often have bad intuition about how exponential functions behave. They look like they grow slowly at first but that doesn't mean that they're not growing exponentially. Consider the story about the grains of rice on a chessboard.

It's exponential along its entire range, even all the way back to negative infinity.

Suckers! That leaves more gold for me.

Your "facial data" isn't private information. You give it away every time you go outside.

A woman I know worked as an escort on and off and spent most of her time traveling, but I don't think most people have the looks and the charisma to do that even if they want to. I'm not sure what other careers both pay enough and let you quit and then start again easily, but presumably there are some.