9mo ago

Gambling on 'vibes' — the betting markets are getting the election all wrong

thehill.com

Gambling on ‘vibes’ — why the betting markets are getting the election all wrong

United States | News & Politics @lemmy.ml

return2ozma @lemmy.world

9mo ago

Gambling on 'vibes' — the betting markets are getting the election all wrong

thehill.com /opinion/campaign/4966317-trump-election-betting-markets/

11 comments

We know that Twitter and Facebook interfered in the election by suppressing documents and information that would have hurt Joe Biden — think Hunter Biden’s laptop, the lack of scientific basis for COVID-19 restrictions and everything in between. It isn’t really a stretch to think that Republican speech was being suppressed in other ways across social media platforms.
But there has been a profound change in social media since the last presidential election. Elon Musk, a strong proponent of free speech, took control of Twitter/X in 2022, and as for Facebook, the discovery of its cover-ups most certainly has put a much harsher spotlight on it this time around.
What the fuck is this drivel?
- It’s an opinion piece they published so they can appear “unbiased”. But it’s a really fucking stupid opinion, to be perfectly blunt.
- The Hill has been putting out some worse takes than usual.
- They've clearly been chugging the Q-lade.
Honestly, I trust the betting markets more than the pollsters. Money on the line makes a difference.
- You don't necessarily get common sense with money, especially if you are very wealthy.
  
  Betting markets can be swayed easily by wealth, sure. Another bias is that they're overwhelmingly frequented by young men.
  
  Definitely. Especially when you also know that the betting markets had Hillary Clinton at 82 percent odds of winning the day before the election and 90 percent odds of UK voters rejecting Brexit. That's obviously not what happened.
Here from the future: they weren’t wrong.
Truthiness

11 comments