Harris tops Trump for first time in Nate Silver’s election forecast

Don't listen to polls, just vote.

can i do both? i kinda like data
I tried to go vote but they told me to come back in three months. Maybe I'll have better luck tomorrow.
- Vote early and vote often.
Counter argument. When the pollsters say it’s a dead heat, listen to them.
If don’t you want federal abortion bans and more handouts for billionaires, then you need to show up and bring your friends and family.
It’s going to come down to a handful of votes.
- Democrats give handouts to billionaires (aka their donors). It'll just be less handouts.
Why do people on Lemmy hate polls so much? Who’s going out and saying “I’m not going to vote, we have polls instead”
- I think we're all just scarred after 2016, because a lot of polling back then had Clinton beating Trump, and we know how that worked out.
I'm glad they listen to polls. With Harris we actually have a chance.

Harris tops Trump for the first time

I knew Trump was a bottom

The last headline was about edging. I’m a bit worried about the election climax, but I am hoping for postcoital bliss.
- Please never make me think about climaxing and Trump in the same context.
  I've already filled a lawsuit for emotional damage.
- Do you get outside ever?
Trump wears the diapers in the relationship
of course he would be; you'd think he'd actually do work in bed?
excuse me now i'm gonna throw up.
If it wasn't already obvious, the whole Stormy Daniels spanking him with a Forbes magazine confirmed it.

For no reason at all I started reading old Archie comics from the very first printing a couple years ago, and I really really appreciated this post

polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls

Pollllllllllllllllllllssssssssssssss!

jazz hands

nate silver's election forecasts are what, within 5% 3/4 of the time?

60% of the time, it works every time
5% is a huge margin in polling. He should be within that margin much more often than 75%.

🥵

But do we have a forecast for whether Nate's algorithm will be accurate, based on past accuracy and factors like the economy and fascists pushing a clueless puppet again? Who's watching the watchers?

Nate is an aggregator with a model. Him, 538, and others like them are the ones that are literally watching the watchers. Silver is not a pollster, he’s someone that looks at other pollsters past performance and ranks / calculates how likely they are to be correct in current polls.

Amazing how not running a candidate over 70 has been hugely beneficial for democrats.

https://archive.ph/CTKfC

Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

He predicted a Hillary blowout in 2016 and was one of the many reasons why people on the left underestimated Trump. I don't want to hear this man's name again.

Did he? My recollection is that he gave her a 70% chance of winning, which is not at all the same as predicting that she will win.
- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  Yup. 70% Clinton, 30% Trump. With points where it was about 50-50. They even had a 1 in 10 shot of Clinton winning the popular vote and Trump winning the election, which was higher than their chances of a Clinton blowout (6%).
- I think Nate made a good point about people not understanding polls. 70% chance to win means Hillary would have won 70/100 elections, not win by 70-30. But many read 70% as some kind of guarantee.
Days before the 2016 election, 538 (which Nate Silver founded and was leading at the time) ran an article titled "Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton". Nate Silver and 538 did some of the best forecasting of that election. Don't conflate him with others' screwups.
There was a massive voter suppression campaign in 2016. Specifically there were roll purges in many of the swing states. Trump's team has inserted MAGA cultists at all levels in Georgia. They're trying to do the same throughout the rest of the swing states.
That's not how his model has ever worked.
I think the messaging around polling in general is lost on most of the population and lots of people confuse the chance of winning with a prediction of the voting outcomes. This article is approximately 8 years old now and aged like milk, but comparing the odds Trump had of losing a game of russian roulette is very apt. With the benefit of hindsight, more emphasis should have been put into driving comparison home. I think that every poll should include this metric instead of trump's chance of winning.
- https://youtu.be/nG1OBQa2fLw
Lol... He just cursed Kamala.