1y ago

Russia's biggest energy company says it'll take it at least 10 years to recover gas sales lost because of the Ukraine war

finance.yahoo.com

Russia's gas giant Gazprom won't recover gas sales lost to the Ukraine war for at least a decade.
A study seen by the Financial Times says pre-war export volumes will return by 2035.
Gazprom will likely lose its leading role in Russia's energy sector over time.

31 comments

The notion that gas sales will, or should, ever recover is cancerous and omnicidal. We should've been permanently winding down fossil fuel sales quite a while ago.
Frankly, destroying as much fossil fuel infrastructure as possible is a good thing, and anybody trying to rebuild it is an enemy of humanity.
- destroying as much fossil fuel infrastructure as possible is a good thing
  Maybe not when doing so would release as much methane as a small country.
Oh those poor fellows.
- So. Anyway... BOMB THEM HARDER!
  or sanction them harder. Whatever.
Putin's war is bad for business. Maybe the oligarchs should do something about it.
Won't somebody think of the fossil fuel industry!
Well whose fault is that? Seriously, no one to blame but themselves, I hope they never recover tbh.
I Hope not, for the environment. Just three weeks before the invasion Europe declared that gas can be considered green energy because the Russian one was cheap and abundant. Putin the environmental conscious dictator immediately stepped in and reminded the EU that Russian gas is not cheap nor abundant.
Thanks to his big push now the EU is increased the share of renewable energy. Once built, we don't need gas anymore. And hopefully developing countries will leapfrog
I don't understand his goal, honestly. If he "wins" he gets a barren land acquired for huge human and monetary cost. Has to pay to rebuild everything and still sanctioned forever by the west, with limited trades. If he "loses" (example chokes, dies tonight and replaced by a decent human being) then they have to pay a lot in reparation costs and Russia would need decades to regain the trust status they had pre-war. It's a lose-lose situation
- At this point Putin's goal is pure personal survival. He needs to not lose the war because that would make him look weak, which is very dangerous for a dictator. To keep himself alive and in power he is willing to throw any amount of Russian soldiers into the meat grinder.
- My understanding is Ukraine is a large grain producer and exporter. So I wouldn't say the land is very barren. There's definite upsides, but you and I would probably agree its going to be a huge cost for Russia.
  
  yes but with the immense amount on money that they literally blew in ukraine + all the money they're losing with sanctions they could have done some geoengineering megaproject to transform a similarly sized amount of land already in their possession into grain farms
  
  Ukraine is a large grain producer and exporter. So I wouldn't say the land is very barren.
  That's it. He wants the farmland, doesn't care who used to live there nor who has to farm the minefields after. They're just the subjugated 'others' like before.
sAnCtiOnS doN’T wOrK!
And then they will tell you that sanctions don't work and we should stop them 😂
"sales lost due to Putin being an incompetent genocidal maniac"
Yet another sign of the Russian economy booming and being totally unaffected by the sanctions....eh...
10 years, so far
“Sorry guys, we have to charge double for the next 10 years”
- They already have to sell it at half price due to sanctions 😂
  
  200% tax
I cannot make up something to be less sympathetic about.
Eh, no worries. 20 years will pass before they know it.
Edit: buuuuut the market for petroleum products is gonna keep on shrinking in the long term from here on out
gee whatever you do don't go out of business or anything
Sad thing bout that is the ones fight the war will be left unharmed with tons of money and the russian people, who suffered for years, still suffering will suffer for (atleast) another decade.
This is good. The only way it could be better is if it takes twenty or more years. How could anyone who has watched russia's fall care?
Is this a surprise? Unlike oil, gas is extremely hard to transport. China's playing hard to get with PoS 2 because the renewable transition is hitting much faster than anticipated (China is hitting their fossil fuels consumption and emissions targets years in advance)... And China doesn't see natural gas outside of PoS 1 and domestic production as a significant part of the energy mix in the future. They skipped the whole coal -> natural gas step.
Meanwhile, crossing the multiple borders to get to India would be a rather complex undertaking, and Nordstream got blown up so European revenues will be suppressed indefinitely even if the war ends (convenient, that).
Given no export target, most natural gas will have to be flared off in the process of oil production... Bad for the environment, but unavoidable given the lack of Nordstream.
Russian oil revenues are high, though, and the domestic surplus of energy has given Russian industry a kick in the butt, so the real losers in this are Germany and Europe, which have seen their industrial bases decimated.
- China is hitting their fossil fuels consumption and emissions targets years in advance
  Really? Is the source the same people whose Coronavirus estimates increased suspiciously geometrical rather than exponential?
  
  According to the IEA, China's coal demand will peak in 2024.
  Sinopec only claims coal peaking in 2025.
  Sinopec also claims peak oil happened in 2023.
  Moreover, that peak gasoline has already passed due to the EV transition.
  According to CREA, China's emissions are set to fall in 2024.
  The Washington Post corroborated this general message, even if it did not give an exact date.
  Even intuitively, this makes sense: emissions growth are tied to economic growth (particularly in construction), so if the construction sector is in structural decline then emissions should decline with it. If the economy is not growing, then emissions should fall. If the mix of primary energy sources pivots towards renewables, emissions should fall.
  This is entirely independent from whether the capacity exists: you can study this entirely from the demand-side because everyone knows renewables are the most cost-effective option on the supply-side.
  
  Is that a surprise? Coronavirus cases around the world were limited by reporting capability. In the US, many cases were left entirely unreported because of political reasons.
  China hit the peak early and only reported cases that could be tested and verified as being COVID. Thus, geometric scaling in an exponential world.
  That, or China's extreme lockdowns actually did something to transmission behaviours by tuning down R0. You decide.

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